Lake Effect Snow Warning 1, NWS Buffalo, NY

021 
WWUS41 KBUF 101707
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1207 PM EST Wed Jan 10 2024

NYZ006>008-110115-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0001.240110T1800Z-240112T0600Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
1207 PM EST Wed Jan 10 2024

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow 
  accumulations of 8 to 16 inches in the most persistent lake 
  snows. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region.

* WHEN...From 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ012-019-020-085-110115-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-240112T0000Z/
Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, 
and Springville
1207 PM EST Wed Jan 10 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph.

* WHERE...Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie 
  counties.

* WHEN...From 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous 
  conditions will likely impact the commutes. Gusty winds could 
  bring down tree branches.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited
visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

TMA

622 
WWUS41 KBUF 102335
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
635 PM EST Wed Jan 10 2024

NYZ006>008-110930-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0001.000000T0000Z-240112T0600Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
635 PM EST Wed Jan 10 2024

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of
  6 to 12 inches in the most persistent lake snows across the Tug
  Hill Plateau. Accumulations across surrounding lower elevations
  will be 2 to 4 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph will 
  produce blowing snow this evening, winds will then diminish 
  overnight.

* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region. The greatest
  accumulations will focus across the Tug Hill Plateau. 

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult at times with poor
  visibility and snow covered roads. The hazardous conditions 
  could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ012-019-020-085-110930-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-240112T0000Z/
Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, 
and Springville
635 PM EST Wed Jan 10 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 5
  inches in the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting as high
  as 40 mph will produce blowing snow this evening, winds will
  then diminish overnight.

* WHERE...Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie
  counties. Greatest accumulations will be across the higher
  terrain of the Boston Hills, western Wyoming County, and the
  higher terrain in northern Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on snow covered and slippery road conditions
  along with reduced visibility at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited
visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

Hitchcock

835 
WWUS41 KBUF 110721
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
221 AM EST Thu Jan 11 2024

NYZ006>008-111600-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0001.000000T0000Z-240112T0600Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
221 AM EST Thu Jan 11 2024

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of
  4 to 8 inches in the most persistent lake snows across the Tug
  Hill Plateau. Accumulations across surrounding lower elevations
  will be 2 to 4 inches.

* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ012-019-020-085-111600-
/O.EXT.KBUF.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-240112T0300Z/
Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, 
and Springville
221 AM EST Thu Jan 11 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches.

* WHERE...Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie 
  counties. Greatest accumulations will be across the higher
  terrain of the Boston Hills, western Wyoming County, and the
  higher terrain in northern Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM EST this evening. The lake effect snow band
  will lift north of the advisory area late this morning and early
  afternoon, but it will drop back southward late this afternoon
  and evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited
visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

Apffel

963 
WWUS41 KBUF 111506
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1006 AM EST Thu Jan 11 2024

NYZ006>008-112315-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0001.000000T0000Z-240112T0600Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
1006 AM EST Thu Jan 11 2024

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of
  4 to 8 inches in the most persistent lake snows across the Tug
  Hill Plateau. Accumulations across surrounding lower elevations
  will be 2 to 4 inches.

* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

NYZ012-019-020-085-112315-
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-240112T0300Z/
Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, 
and Springville
1006 AM EST Thu Jan 11 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches.

* WHERE...Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie 
  counties. Greatest accumulations will be across the higher
  terrain of the Boston Hills, western Wyoming County, and the
  higher terrain in northern Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM EST this evening. The lake effect snow band
  will lift north of the advisory area late this morning and early
  afternoon, but it will drop back southward late this afternoon
  and evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited
visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

&&

$$

628 
WWUS41 KBUF 111856
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
156 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2024

NYZ006>008-120300-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WS.A.0001.240113T2100Z-240115T1200Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0001.000000T0000Z-240112T0600Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
156 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2024

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
FRIDAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...For the Lake Effect Snow Warning, heavy lake effect snow.
  Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches in the most
  persistent lake snows. For the Winter Storm Watch, heavy lake
  effect snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 7 inches or
  more possible in the most persistent lake snows with significant
  blowing and drifting snow possible. Winds could gust as high as
  60 mph.

* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region.

* WHEN...For the Lake Effect Snow Warning, until 1 AM EST 
  Friday. For the Winter Storm Watch, from Saturday afternoon 
  through Monday morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible during
  the weekend. Widespread blowing snow could significantly reduce
  visibility. Strongest winds will occur Saturday which could 
  cause tree damage and power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region.
Localized travel problems will be possible.

&&

$$

NYZ012-019-020-085-120300-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WS.A.0001.240113T1800Z-240115T1200Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-240112T0300Z/
Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, 
and Springville
156 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...For the Winter Weather Advisory, snow. Additional snow
  accumulations of 2 to 4 inches. For the Winter Storm Watch,
  heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 7
  inches or more possible in the most persistent lake snows with
  significant blowing and drifting snow possible. Winds could 
  gust as high as 65 mph.

* WHERE...Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie 
  counties.

* WHEN...For the Winter Weather Advisory, until 10 PM EST this 
  evening. For the Winter Storm Watch, from Saturday afternoon 
  through Monday morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible during
  the weekend. Widespread blowing snow could significantly reduce
  visibility. Strongest winds will occur Saturday which could 
  cause tree damage and power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Periods of snow will result in snow covered roads and limited
visibilities. Slow down and use caution while driving.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.

Narrow bands of heavy snow and blowing snow could impact portions
of the region. Localized travel problems will be possible.

&&

$$

NYZ010-011-120300-
/O.NEW.KBUF.WS.A.0001.240113T1800Z-240115T1200Z/
Northern Erie-Genesee-
Including the cities of Buffalo and Batavia
156 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2024

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow accumulations
  of 7 inches or more possible in the most persistent lake snows
  with significant blowing and drifting snow possible. Winds 
  could gust as high as 65 mph.

* WHERE...Northern Erie and Genesee counties.

* WHEN...From Saturday afternoon through Monday morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible during
  the weekend. Widespread blowing snow could significantly reduce
  visibility. Strongest winds will occur Saturday which could 
  cause tree damage and power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Narrow bands of heavy snow and blowing snow could impact portions
of the region. Localized travel problems will be possible.

&&

$$

TMA

662 
WWUS41 KBUF 120248
WSWBUF

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
948 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2024

NYZ006>008-121100-
/O.CAN.KBUF.LE.W.0001.000000T0000Z-240112T0600Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0001.240113T2100Z-240115T1200Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
948 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2024

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow accumulations
  of more than a foot persistent lake snows. Winds could gust as
  high as 60 mph Saturday afternoon and Saturday evening, with 
  somewhat lower winds then expected through the bulk of the lake 
  effect snow event.

* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region.

* WHEN...From Saturday afternoon through Monday morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be extremely difficult. Widespread
  blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region.
Localized travel problems will be possible.

&&

$$

NYZ012-019-020-085-121100-
/O.CAN.KBUF.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-240112T0300Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0001.240113T1800Z-240115T1200Z/
Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Warsaw, Jamestown, Olean, Orchard Park, 
and Springville
948 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2024

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow accumulations
  of more than a foot possible in the most persistent lake snows.
  Winds could gust as high as 65 mph Saturday and Saturday 
  evening, with somewhat lower winds then expected through the 
  bulk of the lake effect snow event.

* WHERE...Wyoming, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and Southern Erie 
  counties.

* WHEN...From Saturday afternoon through Monday morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be extremely difficult. Widespread
  blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region.
Localized travel problems will be possible.

&&

$$

NYZ010-011-121100-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.A.0001.240113T1800Z-240115T1200Z/
Northern Erie-Genesee-
Including the cities of Buffalo and Batavia
948 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2024

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow accumulations
  of more than a foot possible in the most persistent lake snows.
  Winds could gust as high as 65 mph Saturday and Saturday
  evening, with somewhat lower winds then expected through the
  bulk of the lake effect snow event.

* WHERE...Northern Erie and Genesee counties.

* WHEN...From Saturday afternoon through Monday morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be extremely difficult. Widespread
  blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Narrow bands of heavy snow could impact portions of the region.
Localized travel problems will be possible.

&&

$$

Hitchcock

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
100 AM EST Wed Jan 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A deep area of low pressure over southern Ontario will gradually
push to the northeast across Quebec on Wednesday. This will keep
generally windy conditions across all of the region...with winds
gusting to 45 to 50 mph across the far western counties. Colder air
pouring across the region in the wake of the storm will support some
lake effect snow to the east of both lakes later Wednesday into
Thursday where nearly a foot of snow could accumulate on the Tug
Hill plateau. Another powerful storm will impact the region this
weekend with another round of potentially damaging winds along with
significant lake snows.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING/...
A deep area of low pressure stacked over southern Ontario at
midnight will slowly push northeast across Quebec during the
upcoming day. The good news is that the intense 70-80 low level
jet that pounded the area during the past 18 hours with
widespread damage is now exiting across the St Lawrence valley.
In fact...all high wind warnings have been discontinued except
for the North Country...and those will be dropped with the next
package around 4 AM.

The bad news is that a 45-50 knot low level jet within the cold
advection following the impressive system will support widespread
wind gusts of 45 to 50 mph across the western counties Wednesday
midday and afternoon. While widespread damage is not expected with
this scenario...it is not out of the question that some shallow
rooted trees weakened by Tuesdays event could be impacted by
Wednesdays west to southwest winds. This could be an issue with
restoring power to some areas...as there are wind limits to when
crews can safely work using their 'bucket trucks'. The mixed winds
will be exacerbated by moderately strong isallobaric rises of
10mb/6hr. Wind advisories are already in place for these areas.

While there will be the chance for mixed rain and or snow showers
throughout the region on Wednesday...the pcpn will be focused east
of both lakes. H8 temps will drop to between -6 and -8c during the
course of the day. This will prompt a lake response that should lead
to a couple of inches across the higher terrain. Headlines for the
lake effect will be likely in a future package...especially east of
Lake Ontario where the Tug Hill could pick up a small area of
significant snow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A shortwave ridge will build over the region between an exiting
storm system to the east and an approaching weaker system to
west. A cold, westerly flow will persist over the eastern Great
Lakes region and ongoing lake effect snow showers will continue
east of the Lakes through Wednesday night. Breezy conditions
will continue with wind gusts 30-40 mph Wednesday evening. Winds
will taper off overnight however this will produce wind chills
in the teens across the higher elevations.

Conditions will become less favorable for lake effect especially
east of Lake Erie as surface ridging builds into the region
Wednesday night. Lake induced equilibrium levels will start out
around 5k feet and fall to 3k feet by Thursday morning. Initially,
the top of the saturated layer will tap into the DGZ and lake effect
snow showers are likely across Chautauqua, southern Erie, Wyoming,
and northern Cattaraugus counties. As the night goes on, winds will
back to the southwest while snow showers weaken across Erie county.
Due to sub-par conditions, accumulations of 1-3 inches are likely in
lake effect snow showers. Elsewhere, mainly dry conditions across
western NY. East of Lake Ontario, a westerly flow will produce
favorable conditions for an organized band of lake effect snow
across the Tug Hill region. Subsidence will be less than areas
further south and lake induced equilibrium levels will be slightly
higher, 6-8k feet. A long fetch and an upslope component will lead
to 2-4 inches of snow Wednesday night. Winds will back and lake
effect snow showers will move northward towards Watertown by
Thursday morning. Low temperatures will fall to the mid to upper 20s
to the low 30s across the lake plains.

The next shortwave trough will approach the region Thursday. Surface
low pressure will track to the west of the area with area-wide winds
becoming south-southwest. Warm air advection and increasing moisture
will produce an area of widespread snow showers (possible some rain
mixing in on the lake plains) across the region. Temperatures aloft
will become marginal for lake effect, however there could be
enhancement across the Niagara Frontier east of Lake Erie and
Watertown region east of Lake Ontario. The low will slide across the
Saint Lawrence River into northern New York late Thursday through
Thursday evening. The best forcing will be across the eastern Lake
Ontario region with marginal lake enhancement and an upslope
component. Temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 30s, to the
low 30s across the higher terrain. Due to boundary layer
temperatures, snowfall accumulation of 1-2 inches is possible across
the higher terrain to less than an inch across the lower elevations.
The exception is across the eastern Lake Ontario region where a
widespread 1-3 inches is possible.

Cold air advection kicks in again Thursday night, however moisture
will pull away to the east. Lake effect snow showers will diminish
east of the Lakes overnight with minor accumulations east of Lake
Erie and an additional 1-3 inches possible on the Tug Hill. Lows
will fall to the mid to upper 20s across western NY to the low to
mid 20s east of Lake Ontario. A brief break in precipitation is
likely Friday morning. Warm air advection will take place Friday
with moisture moving into western NY by late Friday afternoon. Highs
will reach the upper 30s across western NY to the low to mid 30s
east of Lake Ontario.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
...The Next Powerful Storm to Impact the Region This Weekend with
SIGNIFICANT Lake Snows and STRONG Winds Possible...

Models continue to advertise anomalously strong (sub 980mb) area of
low pressure passing by to our west and northwest Friday night and
Saturday. This will be a similar scenario to the storm impacting our
area through tonight, with some variances. One difference being the
stronger southeasterly winds in advance of the system should remain
more confined to the traditional localized downslope areas. That's
not to say it will not be windy in other locations with a tight
pressure gradient in place owed to the -3/-4SD low. Would expect
more wind headlines to come as confidence grows. Precipitation will
start off in the frozen form once again, with a transition of rain
to snow from southwest to northeast through the first half of Friday
night. That said, there may be some minor accumulations on the front
end (onset), especially across the higher terrain and areas further
north, before the transition to plain rain through Friday night.
Expect a non-diurnal temperature trend with temps slowly rising
through the 30s before strong occluded front plows across the area
from west to east second half of Friday night through the first half
of Saturday. Coldest airmass of the season starts to pour in across
the region by the start of Saturday morning with rain already
transitioning back to snow across the western Southern Tier.

Temperatures will fall across WNY through the day Saturday, with
falling temps from midday on across the eastern Lake Ontario region
with all areas down to freezing or below by late in the day. Strong
CAA in the wake of the fropa will cause rain to quickly transition
back to snow from west to east and from high terrain to low by early
afternoon with some accumulations possible. Another difference with
this system will be the more traditional strong southwest/west wind
field aloft in the post-frontal polar airmass that will likely bring
the next or just continue the next round of wind headlines for the
region as strong CAA helps mix strong winds aloft down to the
surface. Widespread synoptic precipitation will pull off to the
northeast Saturday afternoon with lake effect snows starting to
organize downwind of the lakes as very cold air pours across the
relatively warmer lake waters.

Plenty of lingering synoptic moisture and DGZ fully in play should
allow lake effect snows to get cranking Saturday night and Sunday,
mainly across areas east of Lakes Erie and Ontario, south of Buffalo
and Watertown. Way too early for specifics such as exact band
placement and accumulations, but significant snow amounts do look
possible through the second half of the weekend across these areas.
It will also remain very windy, which will also mean the potential
for areas of blowing snow.

Model guidance diverges some toward the tail end of the period, thus
confidence lowers some on lake effect potential into early next
week. However, winds may back more southwesterly which would take
any lake effect activity and send it northeast of the lakes,
possibly impacting the Buffalo and Watertown areas for the start of
the new work week lake effect were to continue. Will need to monitor
trends. With regard to temperatures, appears for the first time this
winter, we will see a stretch of below normal temperatures beginning
on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Strong winds will continue to abate across the region during the
overnight. Otherwise mainly VFR conditions will be in place with
scattered rain showers.

Wednesday, an area of deeper wrap around moisture will arrive, with
precipitation becoming more widespread across Western NY and east of
Lake Ontario. Wet snow will mix in across higher elevations during
the morning, with a change to all wet snow by afternoon across
higher terrain. Expect widespread MVFR CIGS, with some IFR across
higher terrain and some IFR VSBY across higher terrain east of the
lakes where precipitation changes to all snow.

Outlook...

Thursday...A chance of snow showers/IFR northeast of the lakes, with
MVFR to VFR elsewhere.
Friday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of rain and snow.
Saturday...Very Windy. MVFR with rain changing to snow from west
to east.
Sunday...Windy. IFR to MVFR. Snow showers, especially east of the
lakes.

&&

.MARINE...
A very deep storm system stacked over southern Ontario at 06z will
slowly push northeast to Quebec by late Wednesday afternoon and
night. The strong winds ahead of this feature have since abated
somewhat...but as we push through Wednesday...winds will once again
freshen to gale force across the majority of the Lower Great Lakes.

The gale force winds will persist into at least Wednesday evening
before slowly relaxing late Wednesday night and Thursday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The combination of snow melt and a half to one inch of rain
from Wednesday and Wednesday evening is expected to push several
forecast points to bankfull (action stage), but the risk for
flooding remains low but non-zero. Areas at the greatest risk
include several of the Buffalo Creeks, the Genesee River at
Wellsville, and the Allegheny River at Olean.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ001>003-
     010>012-019>021-085.
     High Wind Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for NYZ006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for LEZ020.
         Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for
         LOZ030.
         Small Craft Advisory until noon EST today for LOZ042.
         Gale Warning from noon today to 10 PM EST this evening for
         LOZ042-062.
         Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Thursday for LOZ043>045-
         063>065.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...HSK
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH
HYDROLOGY...RSH/JLA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1210 AM EST Wed Jan 10 2024

NYZ012-019-020-085-110515-
Wyoming-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
1210 AM EST Wed Jan 10 2024

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Overnight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

A storm system passing near area this weekend will likely produce
another round of strong winds Friday night through Saturday night.
This may be followed by a significant lake effect event Saturday
night through Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ001>003-010-011-021-110515-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Allegany-
1210 AM EST Wed Jan 10 2024

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Overnight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

A storm system passing near area this weekend will likely produce
another round of strong winds Friday night through Saturday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ004-005-013-014-110515-
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Livingston-Ontario-
1210 AM EST Wed Jan 10 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Gusty west to southgwest winds on Wednesday could gust to 45 mph.

A storm system passing near area this weekend will likely produce
another round of strong winds Friday night through Saturday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ006>008-110515-
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
1210 AM EST Wed Jan 10 2024

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.

A storm system passing near area this weekend will likely produce
another round of strong winds Saturday through Saturday night, and
possibly significant lake effect snow Saturday night through Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ040-041-110515-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
1210 AM EST Wed Jan 10 2024

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

Gale force winds will be possible again Saturday through Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ042-062-110515-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
1210 AM EST Wed Jan 10 2024

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

Gale force winds will be possible again Saturday through Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ043>045-063>065-110515-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
1210 AM EST Wed Jan 10 2024

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

Gale force winds will be possible again Saturday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-LOZ030-110515-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
1210 AM EST Wed Jan 10 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

SLZ022-024-110515-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
1210 AM EST Wed Jan 10 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of the
Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1003 PM EST Tue Jan 9 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0925 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 2 SE Dexter             43.99N 76.02W
01/09/2024  M79 MPH          Jefferson          NY   ASOS

&&

EAJ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1007 PM EST Tue Jan 9 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0946 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst Fort Drum Airfield      44.05N 75.72W
01/09/2024  M71 MPH          Jefferson          NY   ASOS

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1014 PM EST Tue Jan 9 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0952 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 2 SE Dexter - Watertown 43.99N 76.02W
01/09/2024  M79 MPH          Jefferson          NY   ASOS

            Corrects the time for the previous non-tstm
            wnd gst report from 2 SE Dexter.

&&

EAJ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1017 PM EST Tue Jan 9 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0952 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 2 SE Dexter - Watertown 43.99N 76.02W
01/09/2024  M78 MPH          Jefferson          NY   ASOS

            Corrects previous non-tstm wnd gst report
            from 2 SE Dexter.

&&

EAJ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1030 PM EST Tue Jan 9 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0925 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst Belleville              43.79N 76.11W
01/09/2024  M70 MPH          Jefferson          NY   Mesonet

            NYS Mesonet in Belleville.

0925 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg 2 S Elma Center         42.80N 78.64W
01/09/2024                   Erie               NY   Law Enforcement

            Low hanging wires causing road closure on
            Bowen Road between W Blood Rd and Rte 400.

0830 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg 2 SW Orchard Park       42.75N 78.78W
01/09/2024                   Erie               NY   Law Enforcement

            Powerlines down on Armor Duells Road between
            Duerr Road and Bussendorfer Road.

0720 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg Friendship              42.21N 78.14W
01/09/2024                   Allegany           NY   Law Enforcement

            Several trees and wires down across the
            town. Time estimated.

0720 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg Angelica                42.30N 78.02W
01/09/2024                   Allegany           NY   Law Enforcement

            Several trees and wires down across the
            town. Time estimated.

0720 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg Belfast                 42.34N 78.11W
01/09/2024                   Allegany           NY   Law Enforcement

            Several trees and wires down across the
            town. Time estimated.

0715 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg Wirt                    42.13N 78.14W
01/09/2024                   Allegany           NY   Law Enforcement

            Several trees and wires down across the
            town. Time estimated.

0710 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg Wellsville              42.12N 77.95W
01/09/2024                   Allegany           NY   Law Enforcement

            Several trees and wires down across the
            town. Time estimated.

0710 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg Alma                    42.01N 78.05W
01/09/2024                   Allegany           NY   Law Enforcement

            Several trees and wires down across the
            town. Time estimated.

0455 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg Carrollton              42.11N 78.65W
01/09/2024                   Cattaraugus        NY   Law Enforcement

            Several trees and wires down across the
            town. Time estimated.

0435 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg Machias                 42.42N 78.49W
01/09/2024                   Cattaraugus        NY   Law Enforcement

            Several trees and wires down across the
            town. Time estimated.

0345 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg Otto                    42.36N 78.83W
01/09/2024                   Cattaraugus        NY   Law Enforcement

            Several trees and wires down across the
            town. Time estimated.

0345 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg Little Valley           42.25N 78.80W
01/09/2024                   Cattaraugus        NY   Law Enforcement

            Several trees and wires down across the
            town. Time estimated.

0345 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg New Albion              42.28N 78.89W
01/09/2024                   Cattaraugus        NY   Law Enforcement

            Several trees and wires down across the
            town. Time estimated.

1255 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg Portland                42.36N 79.48W
01/09/2024                   Chautauqua         NY   Law Enforcement

            Several trees and wires down across the
            town. Time estimated.

1255 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg Sheridan                42.49N 79.24W
01/09/2024                   Chautauqua         NY   Law Enforcement

            Several trees and wires down across the
            town. Time estimated.

1255 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg Dunkirk                 42.48N 79.33W
01/09/2024                   Chautauqua         NY   Law Enforcement

            Several trees and wires down across the
            city. Time estimated.

1255 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg Brocton                 42.39N 79.44W
01/09/2024                   Chautauqua         NY   Law Enforcement

            Several trees and wires down across the
            town. Time estimated.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1051 PM EST Tue Jan 9 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg Marion                  43.14N 77.19W
01/09/2024                   Wayne              NY   Law Enforcement

            Trees and wires down across the town. Time
            estimated.

0800 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg Macedon                 43.07N 77.30W
01/09/2024                   Wayne              NY   Law Enforcement

            Trees and wires down across the town. Time
            estimated.

0830 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg Ontario                 43.22N 77.28W
01/09/2024                   Wayne              NY   Law Enforcement

            Trees and wires down across the town. Time
            estimated.

&&