Storm Warning 1, NWS Buffalo, NY

515 
WHUS71 KBUF 130220
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
920 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2024

LEZ040-041-131030-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-240113T1400Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.SR.W.0001.240113T1400Z-240114T2100Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
920 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2024

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST SATURDAY...
...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM SATURDAY TO 4 PM EST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, south winds to 40 knots and waves 
  7 to 10 feet. For the Storm Warning, southwest winds to 50 
  knots and waves 14 to 18 feet expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, until 9 AM EST Saturday. For the 
  Storm Warning, from 9 AM Saturday to 4 PM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous waves which 
  could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043>045-063>065-131030-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-240115T0200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
920 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2024

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds to 45 knots and waves 18 to 23 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore and open waters of Lake Ontario from 
  Hamlin Beach to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 9 PM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-062-131030-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-240115T0200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
920 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2024

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds to 45 knots and waves 17 to 22 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore and open waters of Lake Ontario from the 
  Niagara River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...Until 9 PM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-LOZ030-131030-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0002.240113T1200Z-240114T0600Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
920 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2024

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 1 AM EST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds to 35 knots expected.

* WHERE...The Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor.

* WHEN...From 7 AM Saturday to 1 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

Hitchcock

486 
WHUS71 KBUF 130745
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
245 AM EST Sat Jan 13 2024

LOZ043>045-063>065-131800-
/O.EXT.KBUF.GL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-240115T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
245 AM EST Sat Jan 13 2024

...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds to 45 knots and waves 18 to 23 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore and open waters of Lake Ontario from 
  Hamlin Beach to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-062-131800-
/O.EXT.KBUF.GL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-240115T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
245 AM EST Sat Jan 13 2024

...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds to 45 knots and waves 17 to 22 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore and open waters of Lake Ontario from the 
  Niagara River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-LOZ030-131800-
/O.EXT.KBUF.GL.W.0002.240113T1200Z-240114T0900Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
245 AM EST Sat Jan 13 2024

...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds to 35 knots expected.

* WHERE...The Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor.

* WHEN...From 7 AM this morning to 4 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-131800-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-240113T1400Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.SR.W.0001.240113T1400Z-240114T2100Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
245 AM EST Sat Jan 13 2024

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING...
...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM
EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, southwest winds to 35 knots and 
  waves 8 to 11 feet. For the Storm Warning, southwest winds to 
  50 knots and waves 15 to 20 feet expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, until 9 AM EST this morning. For 
  the Storm Warning, from 9 AM this morning to 4 PM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous waves which 
  could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

Apffel

800 
WHUS71 KBUF 131856
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
156 PM EST Sat Jan 13 2024

LEZ040-041-140300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SR.W.0001.000000T0000Z-240114T2100Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.UP.W.0001.240114T0800Z-240116T0000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
156 PM EST Sat Jan 13 2024

...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO
7 PM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...For the Storm Warning, southwest winds to 45 knots and
  waves 15 to 20 feet. For the Heavy Freezing Spray Warning, heavy
  freezing spray at a rate of 1 inch per hour or greater 
  expected, and may rapidly accumulate on vessels.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...For the Storm Warning, until 4 PM EST Sunday. For the 
  Heavy Freezing Spray Warning, from 3 AM Sunday to 7 PM EST 
  Monday.

* IMPACTS...Operating a vessel in heavy freezing spray is 
  hazardous. Freezing spray may render mechanical and electronic 
  components inoperative. Rapid ice accretion on decks and 
  superstructures may result in a catastrophic loss of 
  stability. Very strong winds will cause hazardous waves which 
  could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should prepare for dangerous accumulation of ice on
their vessel. If possible, remain in port, avoid the warning area
or conduct mitigation.

Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043>045-063>065-140300-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-240115T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
156 PM EST Sat Jan 13 2024

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds to 45 knots and waves 18 to 23 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore and open waters of Lake Ontario from 
  Hamlin Beach to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-062-140300-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-240115T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
156 PM EST Sat Jan 13 2024

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...West winds to 45 knots and waves 17 to 22 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore and open waters of Lake Ontario from the 
  Niagara River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-LOZ030-140300-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-240114T0900Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
156 PM EST Sat Jan 13 2024

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...West winds to 35 knots.

* WHERE...The Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

761 
WHUS71 KBUF 132335
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
635 PM EST Sat Jan 13 2024

LEZ040-041-140745-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SR.W.0001.000000T0000Z-240114T2100Z/
/O.NEW.KBUF.GL.W.0003.240113T2335Z-240115T0300Z/
/O.CON.KBUF.UP.W.0001.240114T0800Z-240116T0000Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
635 PM EST Sat Jan 13 2024

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST SUNDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM
SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST MONDAY...
...STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...For the Gale Warning, southwest winds to 45 knots and 
  waves 14 to 18 feet. For the Heavy Freezing Spray Warning, 
  heavy freezing spray at a rate of 2 cm per hour or greater 
  expected, and may rapidly accumulate on vessels.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...For the Gale Warning, until 10 PM EST Sunday. For the 
  Heavy Freezing Spray Warning, from 3 AM Sunday to 7 PM EST 
  Monday.

* IMPACTS...Operating a vessel in heavy freezing spray is 
  hazardous. Freezing spray may render mechanical and electronic 
  components inoperative. Rapid ice accretion on decks and 
  superstructures may result in a catastrophic loss of 
  stability. Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should prepare for dangerous accumulation of ice on
their vessel. If possible, remain in port, avoid the warning area
or conduct mitigation.

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043>045-063>065-140745-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-240115T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
635 PM EST Sat Jan 13 2024

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...West winds to 45 knots and waves 17 to 22 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore and open waters of Lake Ontario from 
  Hamlin Beach to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-062-140745-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-240115T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
635 PM EST Sat Jan 13 2024

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...West winds to 40 knots and waves 16 to 21 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore and open waters of Lake Ontario from the 
  Niagara River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-LOZ030-140745-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-240114T0900Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
635 PM EST Sat Jan 13 2024

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...West winds to 35 knots.

* WHERE...The Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

Hitchcock

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
938 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A powerful storm will impact the region this weekend with damaging
winds tonight through Saturday night, along with significant lake
snows Saturday afternoon through at least early next week east
and northeast of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Surface high pressure will ridge from Ontario province to New
England today, and this will provide at least a short period of fair
and uneventful weather for the daylight hours today. Today will
be a partly to mostly cloudy day, with rain-free weather until
around 4 p.m. when precipitation starts to move into far Western
NY.

Low pressure will strengthen to about 974 mb as it tracks from
Indiana this afternoon and then into eastern Michigan tonight.
This will be a powerful system, with southeast 925mb winds
increasing to about 55 knots. While this is not quite as strong
as our last storm, it still will produce damaging wind
southeasterly wind gusts of 60 mph. Gusty winds tonight will be
localized, and strongest in favorable downslope regions and
across higher terrain. This includes off the Chautauqua Ridge
along I-90 from Ripley to Buffalo where there is again high
confidence gusts of over 60 mph. There also may be some trees
and structures which are vulnerable due to the strong winds from
a few days ago, so opted to issue the warning for this portion
of the event even for areas that may fall just shy of warning
criteria for downslope winds tonight. Also, there will be about
a 6 hour break between southeast downslope winds and the strong
southwesterly winds which will arrive on Saturday.

The storm will also bring a period of steady precipitation focused
along the nose of an 80kt LLJ at around 850mb. For most areas this
will fall as rain, or start briefly as snow before changing to rain.
However across higher terrain in the Western Southern Tier and the
North Country, profiles show an isothermal sounding after
precipitation starts suggesting there will be some accumulating
snow. It'll be a wet snow, with warm ground at the onset limiting
accumulations some. Expecting 1-3 inches for the Southern Tier
higher terrain, and 2-4 in the North Country.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
...Powerful Storm WIll Impact the Region This Weekend with VERY
STRONG Winds and SIGNIFICANT Lake Effect Snows...

An anomalously strong (around 974 mb) surface low will be in the
midst of passing northwest of the area Saturday. It's associated
occluded front will lie across the Genesee Valley early Saturday
morning and finish its eastward path into New England throughout the
rest of the morning and into the afternoon. In the wake of the
frontal passage, the coldest airmass of the season will begin to
pour into the region Saturday morning, transitioning the rain to
snow across the western Southern Tier. Additionally, winds will
shift from southeasterly to southwesterly behind the front and
support widespread wind gusts up to 65 mph through the corridor
from Buffalo to Rochester and 50 to 60 mph gusts likely elsewhere
across WNY.

Temperatures will continue to drop throughout the day Saturday,
first across WNY followed by the Genesee Valley and north central NY
as the front and cold air advection makes its way eastward. By
Saturday evening, most of western and north central NY will see
temperatures near or just below freezing. As the synoptic moisture
lifts off to the northeast Saturday afternoon, heavy lake effect
snow will begin to intensify downwind of the lakes as the bitter
cold air spills across the region.

Heading into Saturday night through Sunday night, plenty of
lingering synoptic moisture and a saturated DGZ will support lake
effect snows to ramp up east of Lakes Erie and Ontario. While the
exact location of the band set up still remains questionable, there
a fair amount of confidence that the band will not have a long
residency time across on area for a long period of time. This being
said, the band will wander across the areas east of Lake Ontario
supporting some time where the band will lie across both the Buffalo
and Watertown metros at some point this weekend. Additionally, there
remains good confidence that with the heavy lake effect snow
combined with a continuation of strong winds will result in
considerable blowing and drifting snow, creating considerable
impacts for the areas east of both Lakes Erie and Ontario.
Travel in lake effect bands will be extremely difficult, to
impossible at times. Did not upgrade the Winter Storm Watch due
to uncertainty in wind direction and the location of lake snow
bands, but it remains in effect from Saturday afternoon through
Monday morning.

It will become much colder with lows in the mid teen to lower 20s
Saturday night, highs Sunday in the upper teens across the higher
terrain and low to mid 20s elsewhere and lows Sunday night in the
upper single digits across the higher terrain and low to mid teens
elsewhere. These colder temperatures combined with the winds will
support wind chill values to primarily range in the single digits
with a few low teens across the northern Finger Lakes.

By Monday, a deep cut off low over southern Hudson Bay will slowly
weaken and retrograde west back into northern Ontario. Overall this
will support cold cyclonic flow to continue to filter across the
region and support the lake effect snow to persist east of both
lakes Monday. Similar to the weekend, temperatures will continue to
be cold with highs ranging in the upper teens to low 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The aforementioned deep cut off low in the short term section will
be over northern Ontario Monday night and will continue to slowly
retrograde into northern Manitoba throughout much of the week.
Considering the deep cyclonic flow in place across the Great Lakes
continuing to advect arctic cold air into the region will lead to
below normal temperatures throughout much of next week.
Additionally, with the lakes seasonably warm and ice free, the risk
for accumulating lake effect snows east of both lakes will last
throughout much of this period.

Looking into some of the details, a shortwave trough will dive and
reorientates the longwave trough such that the axis is negatively
tilted Monday night and Tuesday. This will support a coastal low to
form off the southeast Atlantic coastline. As the low advances
northward throughout the week, this will support the longwave
troughing pattern to intensify. Now depending on the track of the
coastal low will determine whether some of the snow will be
synoptic. A more westward track of the low will support more
widespread synoptic snows across NYS, whereas a eastward track of
the low will support lake effect snows to continue. Then in the wake
of the coastal low, lake effect snows will resume east of both
lakes. We'll have to keep an eye on the evolution and track of the
coastal low as we head into next week, stay tuned!

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
There remains patchy MVFR cigs across the area, but these should
mix out once southeasterly winds pick up this morning. Expecting
mainly VFR flight conditions this afternoon.

This evening, a strong low level jet will approach with
precipitation spreading quickly in the the region from the SE.
This will start as snow or a rain/snow mix but will trend to
rain. This will lower most sites to MVFR or IFR as cigs lower
and due to vsby restrictions. LLWS expected at KJHW where the
jet will be lowest and strongest.

Precipitation will taper off late tonight, with lingering MVFR
stratus. Strong winds will move from west to east, with a lull in
the action late tonight before winds pick up again Saturday.

Outlook...

Saturday...Strong winds. MVFR/IFR with rain changing to snow
from west to east.

Sunday...Windy. Heavy lake effect snow with IFR and lower east
of the lakes, MVFR/VFR outside of lake effect.

Monday...Heavy lake effect snow northeast of the lakes with IFR
and lower. MVFR/VFR outside of lake effect.

Tuesday...Widespread snow will likely result IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Another very deep storm system will arrive into the eastern Great
Lakes tonight and into this weekend. Ahead of the storm system low
end east and southeast gales are likely for a narrow window Friday
night. These will be marginal in some of the nearshores, with winds
perhaps only briefly reaching 35 knots along the south shores of
Lake Ontario.

As the low pulls away from the area this weekend, southwest and west
gales up to 45 knots are expected with a high confidence gale
warning in effect for both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, before winds
gradually subside Saturday night and Sunday. Storm force wind gusts
are likely Saturday and Saturday evening on both lakes.

In addition to the lakes, issued a shorter period of gales for the
Niagara River, and also moved up the start time slightly for western
Lake Ontario.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Strong gales on Saturday will produce a lake seiche which is
expected to cause lakeshore flooding along Lake Erie. LEOFS
guidance has increased considerably and it is now forecasting a
level over 8 ft. This is in much better agreement with wind
forecasts, and suspect it may still be slightly underdone. Expect
Lake Erie to rise to around 9 feet on Saturday. Because of
this, upgraded the watch to a warning, and included Niagara
County (for seiche flooding along the Niagara River).

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...High Wind Warning from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Sunday
     for NYZ001>005-010-011-014.
     Lakeshore Flood Warning from 7 AM Saturday to 4 AM EST Sunday
     for NYZ001-010-019-085.
     High Wind Warning from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Sunday
     for NYZ006>008.
     Winter Storm Watch from Saturday afternoon through Monday
     morning for NYZ006>008.
     Winter Storm Watch from Saturday afternoon through Monday
     morning for NYZ010>012-019-020-085.
     High Wind Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Sunday
     for NYZ012-013-019>021-085.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 7 AM Saturday to 1 AM EST Sunday for LEZ020.
         Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Sunday for
         LEZ040-041.
         Gale Warning from 7 AM Saturday to 1 AM EST Sunday
         for LOZ030.
         Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 9 PM EST Sunday
         for LOZ042-062.
         Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 9 PM EST Sunday for
         LOZ043>045-063>065.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Apffel
NEAR TERM...Apffel/HSK
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...Apffel
MARINE...Apffel
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...Apffel

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
324 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2024

NYZ002-130830-
Orleans-
324 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2024

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.

Heavy lake effect snow will develop northeast of Lake Erie Saturday
afternoon through Monday. The lake effect snow may occasionally move
north all the way into portions of Niagara and Orleans counties.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ001-130830-
Niagara-
324 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2024

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
SUNDAY...
...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST
SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.
   Lakeshore Flood Warning.

Heavy lake effect snow will develop northeast of Lake Erie Saturday
afternoon through Monday. The lake effect snow may occasionally move
north all the way into portions of Niagara and Orleans counties.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ019-085-130830-
Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
324 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2024

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
SUNDAY...
...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST
SUNDAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.
   Lakeshore Flood Warning.
   Winter Storm Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ011-130830-
Genesee-
324 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2024

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
SUNDAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.
   Winter Storm Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ010-130830-
Northern Erie-
324 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2024

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
SUNDAY...
...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST
SUNDAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.
   Lakeshore Flood Warning.
   Winter Storm Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ012-020-130830-
Wyoming-Cattaraugus-
324 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2024

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
SUNDAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.
   Winter Storm Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ013-021-130830-
Livingston-Allegany-
324 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2024

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ003>005-014-130830-
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Ontario-
324 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2024

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ006>008-130830-
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
324 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2024

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
SUNDAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.
   Winter Storm Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ042-062-130830-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
324 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2024

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM EST
SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ043>045-063>065-130830-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
324 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2024

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM EST
SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ040-041-130830-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
324 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2024

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-LOZ030-130830-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
324 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2024

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 1 AM EST SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

SLZ022-024-130830-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
324 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of the
Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Apffel