Special Weather Statement, NWS Buffalo, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
328 AM EST Wed Feb 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue through midday with a
few rounds of showers and scattered thunderstorms. A powerful cold
front will then race east across the region this afternoon,
producing one final line of gusty showers and a few thunderstorms.
Strong winds in the wake of the cold front will force temperatures
to free fall this afternoon and tonight with rain giving way to lake
effect snow showers. The most persistent snow will fall southeast of
Lake Ontario where localized moderate accumulations are expected.
The cold will be short lived, with another major warm-up Friday
through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Radar imagery showing several bands of showers and embedded
thunderstorms moving across Western NY early this morning in
response to a shortwave moving northeast ahead of the main trough,
along with isentropic upglide and advection of elevated instability
into the area. These will continue to move northeast this morning
and weaken with time and northeastern extent.

The main focus will be this afternoon through Thursday morning, with
a strong and very progressive trough advancing east across the
northern tier of the US. This trough will cross the Great Lakes
today before reaching New England Thursday morning. At the surface,
an elongated low will consolidate into a deepening surface low over
western Quebec this afternoon, driving a powerful cold front east
across the area this afternoon. Cold air will pour back into the
eastern Great Lakes in the wake of the cold front.

This system will bring multiple hazards into play, including
thunderstorms, strong winds, rapidly dropping temperatures, and lake
effect snow. Details for each hazard below...

Rain and Hydrology...

This system is moving very fast, so that will limit rainfall to some
extent. Expect totals through this evening to reach 0.25"-0.75" in
most areas, and up to 1.0" across higher terrain. This rain will
fall in multiple batches of brief, convective showers. In general,
given the lack of snowpack, the area should handle these amounts
with no significant hydro concerns. There is still some snow to melt
across the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario, and this will
support within-bank rises to action stage along the Black River and
its tributaries.

Thunderstorms...

The storms this morning are elevated in nature, rooted in a layer of
unstable air above the surface. This will greatly reduce any wind
risk through the morning with convection. Some of the stronger
storms may produce small hail, brief heavy downpours, and frequent
lightning.

Expect a fine line of convection (with or without thunder) to
develop along the surging cold front this afternoon. There will
likely be some limited surface based instability by this time along
a narrow zone just ahead of the cold front, especially from the
Genesee Valley east across Central NY. Given the strong wind fields
aloft and strong forcing, even a low topped line of convection may
be able to produce isolated damaging wind gusts.

Strong Winds...

Not an easy call by any means on wind headlines for Wind Advisory vs
High Wind Warning. The elongated nature of the surface low is less
favorable historically than a more consolidated, deep low. The
strongest wind fields are in the warm air ahead of the system, with
a 60+ knot low level jet in the warm sector. This generally won't
mix down in the strong warm advection and ascent ahead of the
system, although downslope areas along the Lake Erie shore and north
of the Tug Hill may gust to 40+ mph this morning.

Behind the cold front, wind fields aloft are marginal for reaching
High Wind Warning criteria. The strongest winds aloft are over and
east/southeast of Lake Ontario, where 50-55 knots is available near
the top of the mixed layer. This is not particularly high for a
warning event, but strong cold advection, a stratospheric intrusion
with the 1.5 PVU surface decending down to below 600MB, and strong
pressure rises should all result in very steep low level lapse rates
and nearly full mixing of stronger winds aloft to the surface. Given
this, will upgrade to a High Wind Warning from Monroe/Ontario
counties eastward to the eastern Lake Ontario region with peak gusts
near 60 mph. The strongest winds will be near the Lake Ontario
shore.

Farther west, BUFKIT soundings show a little less wind aloft in the
post-frontal airmass across the Niagara Frontier and near Lake Erie,
with around 45 knots through the mixed layer. This should, in
general, keep the post-frontal wind gusts in the advisory range with
peak gusts of 45-55 mph. With this in mind, converted the rest of
the High Wind Watch to a Wind Advisory for Western NY.

Rapidly Falling Temperatures...

The flash freeze potential continues to look lower, not because of
the lack of rapidly falling temperatures, but rather the lack of
precipitation during the time when temperatures fall below freezing.
The cold front is looking less and less anabatic in nature, with
rain generally ending with nothing more than a very brief period of
snow at the tail end.

There will likely be a lull in precipitation during the time
temperatures drop below freezing later this afternoon and evening,
which may very well allow the wind to blow the pavement dry prior to
ice being able to form. Areas sheltered from the wind are most
likely to freeze up.

Lake Effect Snow...

Strong cold advection behind the system will allow 850mb
temperatures to bottom out around -18C by 12Z Thursday. The deep
pool of cold air aloft in the base of the trough will support a
narrow window of lake effect snow potential later Wednesday evening
through Thursday. The setup looks much better off Lake Ontario,
where model guidance suggests an impressive 3 lake upstream
connection to both Lake Superior and Georgian Bay for a time late
tonight through Thursday morning. Confidence is increasing in this
scenario, and a favorable thermodynamic environment will be in place
for efficient snow accumulation with a deep dendritic growth zone
late tonight through Thursday morning.

Expect the heaviest snow to fall from late tonight through late
morning Thursday, when snowfall rates may reach 1-2"/hr in the
strongest portion of the band. The greatest accumulations will
likely focus from far eastern Wayne County through northern Cayuga
County to the Syracuse area, where totals of 6-9" are possible in
the most persistent bands. Tough call on Oswego County, the band
many end up being just south of there much of the time. Thursday
afternoon expect lake effect to more northeast across Oswego County
and produce 1-3"/2-4" as it does so. The extreme southern end of the
County may also see 3-6" if the band clips that area later tonight
through Thursday morning.

With the above in mind, a Lake Effect Snow Warning has been issue
for Wayne and Northern Cayuga, and a Winter Weather Advisory for
Oswego County. In addition to the snow, strong winds will produce
extensive blowing and drifting snow with near blizzard conditions at
times in and near the lake effect snow bands.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Lake effect snow showers southeast of Lake Ontario will diminish
Thursday evening as heights build across the region. In fact, warm
air advection will begin during the evening hours resulting in 850mb
temperatures rising from -15C Thursday evening to -5C Friday morning
over Lake Ontario. An additional inch of snow is possible across
Oswego county Thursday evening. Dry conditions are expected
elsewhere.

Surface high pressure will move further off the Mid-Atlantic coast
Friday. Warm air advection will continue within south-southwest flow
and temperatures will rise into the mid 40s by mid-day. While dry
conditions are expected Friday, attention turns to an approaching
shortwave trough with origins from the east-central Pacific Ocean.
Guidance is in decent agreement that a coastal low will develop off
near the Carolina coast Friday night. Most impacts will be well
south of the eastern Great Lakes region with only a slight chance of
light rain and snow showers from the western Southern Tier to the
eastern Lake Ontario region late Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An anomalously strong ridge will be across the eastern Great Lakes
region this weekend into the start of the next work week.
Temperatures will be well above normal Saturday through Tuesday with
temperature readings surpassing 60 degrees across the lake plains
Sunday and Monday. This may, again break records for Buffalo,
Rochester, and/or Watertown.

A cold front will move across the Great Lakes region late Monday
into Tuesday. The potential for rain showers increase during this
time.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An area of showers and scattered thunderstorms will move northeast
across Western NY through the pre-dawn hours and weaken, with most
of the thunder ending before daybreak. A few more rounds of showers
will cross the region from southwest to northeast through the
morning hours. VFR will prevail most of the time across lower
elevations except for in any heavier showers, with some MVFR CIGS
across higher terrain.

A powerful cold front will sweep east across the area this
afternoon, entering Western NY around midday then reaching the
eastern Lake Ontario region and Central NY by mid afternoon. A gusty
line of showers and scattered thunderstorms may accompany the cold
front. Behind the front, a rapid temperature drop will support a
quick change to light snow just an hour or two after the frontal
passage, although any snow will be short lived. Winds will flip to
the west and increase suddenly with the cold frontal passage, with
gusts of 40-45 knots along and behind the front in many areas, and
near 50 knots southeast and east of Lake Ontario.

Tonight, strong winds will continue through the evening before
gradually backing off late tonight. Lake effect snow showers will
develop this evening and continue overnight southeast of the lakes
with local IFR. The most organized area of lake effect snow will be
southeast of Lake Ontario, focusing in areas well east of KROC and
just south and west of KFZY. The Lake Erie snow will be less
organized, but will bring occasional MVFR/IFR to KJHW. Outside of
these areas, there may be meandering bands of Lake Huron lake effect
snow showers as well with local IFR, but these will be difficult to
time and place.

Outlook...

Thursday...VFR/MVFR with scattered light snow showers in most areas.
Lake effect snow southeast of Lake Ontario with local IFR/LIFR.
Friday through Sunday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A strong cold front will sweep east across the lower Great Lakes
this afternoon, with winds flipping to the west and rapidly
increasing to gales just behind the front. Expect low end gales on
Lake Erie from this afternoon through this evening. Lake Ontario
continues to look better, with west gales to at least 40 knots later
today through the first half of tonight, and possibly 45 knots on
the east half of the lake. Gales will end on Lake Erie after
midnight, and on Lake Ontario Thursday morning. West to northwest
winds will remain elevated through Thursday following the gales.

&&

.CLIMATE...
All three climate sites have broken daily record highs for
Tuesday.

Buffalo also set a new record warm low temperature for Tuesday.

Rochester tied an all time record high for February on Tuesday
at 73 degrees.

Watertown set a new all time record high for February on Tuesday
at 69 degrees.

Here is a look at the records for today.

Record High Temperatures

Buffalo.....Wed 2/28 - 64(1954)

Rochester...Wed 2/28 - 64(2018)

Watertown...Wed 2/28 - 60(2018)

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 4 AM EST Thursday for
     NYZ001-002-010>013-019>021-085.
     High Wind Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST
     Thursday for NYZ003>008-014.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EST
     Thursday for NYZ004-005.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EST
     Thursday for NYZ006.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EST
         Thursday for LEZ020.
         Gale Warning from 11 AM this morning to 1 AM EST Thursday
         for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM
         EST Thursday for LOZ030.
         Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Thursday
         for LOZ042-062.
         Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Thursday
         for LOZ043>045-063>065.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...HSK
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock
CLIMATE...Hitchcock

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
249 AM EST Wed Feb 28 2024

NYZ019-280845-
Chautauqua NY-
249 AM EST Wed Feb 28 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY THROUGH 345 AM
EST...

At 248 AM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Wattsburg, or 14 miles southeast of Erie, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Jamestown, Dunkirk, Fredonia, Westfield, Lakewood, Falconer,
Mayville, Clymer, Long Point State Park, Jamestown West, Chautauqua
Institution, Lake Erie State Park, Findley Lake, SUNY Fredonia,
Frewsburg, Chautauqua, Busti, Portland, Ripley, and Stockton.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 90 between exits 60 and 61.
 Interstate 86 between exits 4 and 14.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4227 7976 4228 7973 4230 7975 4249 7938
      4232 7909 4200 7909 4200 7976
TIME...MOT...LOC 0748Z 240DEG 49KT 4200 7987

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Hitchcock

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