Severe Thunderstorm Warning 78, NWS Buffalo, NY

918 
WWUS51 KBUF 161852
SVSBUF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
252 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

NYC045-049-075-161930-
/O.CON.KBUF.SV.W.0078.000000T0000Z-240716T1930Z/
Jefferson NY-Lewis NY-Oswego NY-
252 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM EDT
FOR JEFFERSON...LEWIS AND NORTHEASTERN OSWEGO COUNTIES...

At 251 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 8 miles east of Redwood to near Carthage to 8 miles
north of Redfield, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable 
         tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, 
         roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
Watertown, Fort Drum, Carthage, Lowville, Pulaski, West Carthage,
Adams, Redfield, Glen Park, and Herrings.

This includes Interstate 81 between exits 36 and 49.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly
from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the
basement or small central room in a sturdy structure.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

These storms have a history of producing wind damage. SEEK SHELTER 
NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows.
 
To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency.
They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in
Buffalo.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4360 7514 4342 7553 4348 7581 4342 7585
      4354 7622 4404 7593 4435 7596 4440 7584
      4410 7517 4363 7511
TIME...MOT...LOC 1851Z 258DEG 32KT 4426 7563 4402 7557 4365 7577 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.25 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH

$$

Welch

741 
WWUS51 KBUF 161919
SVSBUF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
319 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

NYC045-049-075-161930-
/O.CON.KBUF.SV.W.0078.000000T0000Z-240716T1930Z/
Jefferson NY-Lewis NY-Oswego NY-
319 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM EDT
FOR EASTERN JEFFERSON...LEWIS AND NORTHEASTERN OSWEGO COUNTIES...

At 318 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 6 miles south of Fowler to 12 miles east of Carthage
to Highmarket, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable 
         tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, 
         roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
Fort Drum, Carthage, Lowville, West Carthage, Herrings, Highmarket,
Whetstone Gulf State Park, Denmark, New Bremen, and Watson.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency.
They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in
Buffalo.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4360 7514 4342 7553 4348 7581 4396 7578
      4429 7560 4410 7517 4363 7511
TIME...MOT...LOC 1918Z 253DEG 33KT 4419 7541 4395 7535 4358 7555 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH

$$

Welch

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1256 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Another cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms will cross the
region from west to east today, with localized torrential rainfall
and damaging winds possible. A few more showers and isolated
thunderstorms will continue tonight through Wednesday as a cold
front slowly crosses the eastern Great Lakes. High pressure will
build into the Great Lakes Thursday and remain through next weekend,
with an extended period of dry and less humid weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AGAIN TODAY MAINLY FROM THE
GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD...

A strong MCV is centered across Western Lake Ontario and this
is resulting in locally enhanced winds aloft. This is creating
an environment favorable for severe weather across the forecast
area. Across Western NY, early cloud cover associated with the
system has limited surface based instability and inhibited storm
growth. There's a non-zero severe weather risk in far Western
NY, but as the line of storms develops this risk is lower here.
Even so, synoptic winds  with the MCV will cause a two hour
period with wind gusts to 45 mph.

From the Genesee Valley east some sunshine this morning has
allowed for destabilization which will support stronger
thunderstorms. This is where SPC upgraded to an enhanced risk
for severe weather, with damaging winds and large hail the
primary risks. Wind shear profiles may even support an isolated
tornado. This active weather will all be during the next few
hours. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for most of the
forecast area.

A secondary concern is the risk for heavy rainfall. PWAT values
on this mornings sounding was about 1.5 inches, and movement of
the system will help mitigate flooding risks some. However
mesoscale guidance suggest a risk for heavy rain in the Eastern
Lake Ontario region where storms may linger a bit longer.

A few more scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop later in
the afternoon and evening along the southern edge of the Lake Erie
breeze, mainly from the western Southern Tier into the Finger Lakes.
These will gradually taper off through the evening.

Overnight, the mid level trough and associated cold front will
approach slowly from the northwest. Increasing large scale ascent
and low level convergence ahead of these features will support an
increasing chance of showers and a few isolated thunderstorms again
late tonight, but with less coverage and intensity than today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front will start this period on our western counties
doorstep, with the front slicing across the region through the
morning and early afternoon hours. A few showers, and later
thunderstorms will remain possible along and ahead of this front.
Greatest possibilities for thunder will be the Finger Lakes and east
of Lake Ontario where greater daytime insolation and developing CAPE
(MUCAPE of 500 J/KG) will be realized.

A longwave trough will enter into our region Wednesday night with
showers ending across eastern zones, and clouds thinning. Some
patches of fog will be possible with still a fair amount of humidity
to start the night.

A much drier airmass will build across our region later Wednesday
night and Thursday on a light northerly flow behind the passage of
the upper level trough. This will promote fair weather for Thursday
and Thursday night. Though temperatures will only be a few degrees
cooler Thursday than Wednesday, the dewpoints at least 10
degrees cooler will be more noticeable.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
This will be a spectacular stretch of weather, with a broad ridge of
high pressure expanding across the region. A weak cold front will
drop southward across the region Sunday, but its passage should
largely be rain-free with possibly an isolated shower east of Lake
Ontario. Otherwise, there's good model agreement providing high
confidence in rain-free weather. Temperatures will be near normal
with daytime highs averaging in the mid 70s to lower 80s and
nighttime lows mainly in the mid 50s to lower 60s. A few colder
spots early Friday morning, and again early Saturday morning could
drop into the upper 40s east of both Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An area of showers and thunderstorms associated with an upper
level disturbance will arrive in Western NY by late morning,
then move east across the rest of the area, reaching the eastern
Lake Ontario region by mid afternoon. This will bring a
likelihood of thunder and brief VSBY/CIG reductions across much
of the area, including all the terminals. Some storms may be
strong with localized high wind gusts. Mainly VFR conditions
will follow later today behind this round of showers and
thunderstorms. A few more storms may develop late afternoon
through evening from the Southern Tier into the Finger Lakes,
mainly east of KJHW and south of KROC.

Tonight, the evening showers and thunderstorms across the Southern
Tier and Finger Lakes will taper off. Overnight, an approaching cold
front and mid level trough may produce a few more showers and
thunderstorms with uneven coverage. Areas of MVFR/IFR CIGS will
develop later tonight through Wednesday morning.

Outlook...

Wednesday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday through Saturday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A period of moderate southwesterlies will develop on Lake Erie
today, with Small Craft Advisory conditions this afternoon.
Winds will be somewhat lower on Lake Ontario, but still enough
to produce a moderate chop this afternoon and evening.

Another cluster of thunderstorms will cross the eastern Great Lakes
today, with locally higher winds and waves. The timing is earlier
than yesterday, with the greatest chance of storms this morning
through early afternoon on Lake Erie and western Lake Ontario, and
midday through late afternoon for the eastern end of Lake Ontario.

A cold front will cross the eastern Great Lakes Wednesday. West to
northwest winds up to 15 knots will produce moderate chop at times
Wednesday through Thursday on Lake Ontario, but winds and waves are
generally expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ010-
     019-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for
         LEZ040-041.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Apffel/Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...Apffel/Thomas
AVIATION...Apffel/Hitchcock
MARINE...Apffel/Hitchcock

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
211 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

NYZ004>008-014-171815-
Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-Ontario-
211 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 546 IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ001>003-011>013-020-021-171815-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Cattaraugus-
Allegany-
211 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ010-019-085-171815-
Northern Erie-Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
211 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042-043-062-063-SLZ022-024-171815-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
211 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake
Ontario and Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ044-045-064-065-171815-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
211 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 546 IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Apffel

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
935 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0428 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 NW West Bloomfield    42.92N 77.57W
07/15/2024                   Livingston         NY   Public

            Several trees down and damage to a garage.
            Time estimated from radar.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1032 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

NYZ001-002-161500-
Orleans NY-Niagara NY-
1032 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN NIAGARA AND
NORTHERN ORLEANS COUNTIES THROUGH 1100 AM EDT...

At 1031 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Newfane, or 11 miles northwest of Medina, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Medina, Newfane, Middleport, Waterport, Lakeside Beach State Park,
Point Breeze, Kent, Ridgeway, Shelby, Gaines, Lyndonville, Barker,
Olcott, Gasport, Knowlesville, and Appleton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4341 7862 4342 7849 4342 7809 4340 7795
      4339 7793 4312 7854 4334 7875
TIME...MOT...LOC 1431Z 240DEG 40KT 4331 7857

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Welch

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1100 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 ESE Martville         43.27N 76.58W
07/10/2024                   Oswego             NY   Public

            Several evergreen trees down...also a willow
            and an ash tree down. Time estimated from
            radar. Delayed report.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1148 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

NYZ001>003-010>013-019>021-085-161645-
Chautauqua NY-Cattaraugus NY-Allegany NY-Livingston NY-
Southern Erie NY-Wyoming NY-Orleans NY-Genesee NY-Monroe NY-
Niagara NY-Northern Erie NY-
1148 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT WYOMING...NORTHERN
CATTARAUGUS... ERIE...NORTHWESTERN LIVINGSTON...SOUTHEASTERN
NIAGARA...ORLEANS... NORTHEASTERN CHAUTAUQUA...NORTHWESTERN
ALLEGANY...GENESEE AND MONROE COUNTIES THROUGH 1245 PM EDT...

At 1145 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking thunderstorms along a
line extending from near Albion to 11 miles southeast of Fredonia
extending northeast to Alden and to Oakfield in Genesee county.
This line is moving east at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Rochester, Greece, Irondequoit, West Seneca, Clarence, Chili,
Batavia, Lancaster, Hamburg, Brockport, East Aurora, Medina, Albion,
Hilton, Brighton, Gates-North Gates, Hamlin Beach State Park, Darien
Lakes State Park, Elma, and Boston.

This includes Interstate 90 between exits 47 and 48A.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 600 PM EDT for
western New York.

&&

LAT...LON 4230 7919 4342 7823 4336 7770 4328 7754
      4331 7743 4249 7815
TIME...MOT...LOC 1545Z 251DEG 50KT 4329 7815 4236 7914

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Reynolds

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1256 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     25 NNW Pultneyville     43.61N 77.41W
07/16/2024  M65 MPH          LOZ063             NY   Buoy

            Wind gust of 56.3kts from buoy 45012.

&&