Alert archive / New York / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2024
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 71, NWS Buffalo, NY
NWS Buffalo, NY issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 15, 2024, 5:42 PM EDT for Cayuga County, Oswego County, Wayne County, New York. It was in force for 63 min. 5 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 15, 2024, 5:42 PM EDT (21:42 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 15, 2024, 6:45 PM EDT
- In force
- 63 min
- Issued by
- NWS Buffalo, NY
- Area
- Storm-based polygon
- Hail
- 0.75 in
- Wind
- 60.0 mph
Counties Cayuga County, NY, Oswego County, NY, Wayne County, NY
The radar
The Ft Drum radar (KTYX), 74 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:46 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What was reported inside it
| Time | Report | Where | Remark |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 15, 5:48 PM EDT | TSTM WND DMG | 5 Sw Cato, NY | Trees and wires down in the town of Conquest. |
| Jul 15, 5:51 PM EDT | TSTM WND DMG | Port Byron, NY | Trees and wires down in the town of Port Byron. |
| Jul 15, 5:55 PM EDT | TSTM WND DMG | 2 Sw Cato, NY | Large tree down on a carport. |
| Jul 15, 5:55 PM EDT | TSTM WND DMG | Cato, NY | Trees and wires down in the town of Cato. |
| Jul 15, 6:40 PM EDT | TSTM WND DMG | Constantia, NY | Multiple trees and wires down across town. |
Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.
Did it verify
Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 5 storm reports to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 6 minutes after it went out.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The watch it was issued in
The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.
| Issued | Product | Office | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 15, 12:21 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | 9 hr |
The nearest sounding before it
Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 12:00Z, 9.7 hours before the alert went out and 201 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 823 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -7 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 513 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 25 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 19 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 39 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.1
- Supercell composite
- 0.4
The text
As transmitted.
679
WUUS51 KBUF 152142
SVRBUF
NYC011-075-117-152245-
/O.NEW.KBUF.SV.W.0071.240715T2142Z-240715T2245Z/
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
542 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024
The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Northeastern Wayne County in western New York...
Cayuga County in central New York...
Oswego County in central New York...
* Until 645 PM EDT.
* At 542 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 6 miles southeast of Chimney Bluffs State Park to
near Montezuma, moving northeast at 45 mph.
HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.
* Locations impacted include...
Oswego, Fulton, Fair Haven Beach State Park, Central Square,
Weedsport, Cato, Chimney Bluffs State Park, Mexico Point State
Park, Nine Mile Point, and Battle Island State Park.
This includes the following highways...
Interstate 90 near exit 40.
Interstate 81 between exits 32 and 34.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.
To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will send your report to the National Weather Service
office in Buffalo.
Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 4315 7588 4320 7608 4327 7620 4320 7621
4324 7627 4322 7626 4320 7627 4323 7631
4323 7648 4311 7647 4310 7650 4304 7650
4302 7673 4326 7699 4357 7636 4357 7627
4336 7587 4333 7589 4332 7586
TIME...MOT...LOC 2142Z 230DEG 38KT 4321 7683 4307 7669
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH
$$
RSH2 follow-up statements
968
WWUS51 KBUF 152205
SVSBUF
Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
605 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024
NYC117-152214-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SV.W.0071.000000T0000Z-240715T2245Z/
Wayne NY-
605 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024
...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN WAYNE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned
Wayne county. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
central New York.
&&
LAT...LON 4315 7588 4320 7608 4327 7620 4320 7622
4324 7627 4322 7626 4320 7627 4323 7631
4323 7648 4311 7647 4310 7650 4304 7650
4303 7667 4333 7672 4357 7636 4356 7631
4357 7627 4336 7587 4333 7589
TIME...MOT...LOC 2204Z 231DEG 35KT 4331 7668 4320 7647
$$
NYC011-075-152245-
/O.CON.KBUF.SV.W.0071.000000T0000Z-240715T2245Z/
Cayuga NY-Oswego NY-
605 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024
...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM EDT
FOR CAYUGA AND OSWEGO COUNTIES...
At 604 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Fair Haven Beach State Park to Lysander, moving
northeast at 40 mph.
HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to mobile
homes, roofs, and outbuildings.
Locations impacted include...
Oswego, Fulton, Fair Haven Beach State Park, Central Square,
Weedsport, Cato, Mexico Point State Park, Nine Mile Point, Battle
Island State Park, and Brewerton.
This includes the following highways...
Interstate 90 near exit 40.
Interstate 81 between exits 32 and 34.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.
This is a DANGEROUS SITUATION. These storms are producing widespread
wind damage across the Finger Lakes region. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a
sturdy structure and stay away from windows.
To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency.
They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in
Buffalo.
Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 4315 7588 4320 7608 4327 7620 4320 7622
4324 7627 4322 7626 4320 7627 4323 7631
4323 7648 4311 7647 4310 7650 4304 7650
4303 7667 4333 7672 4357 7636 4356 7631
4357 7627 4336 7587 4333 7589
TIME...MOT...LOC 2204Z 231DEG 35KT 4331 7668 4320 7647
THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH
$$
RSH784
WWUS51 KBUF 152244
SVSBUF
Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
644 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024
NYC011-075-152253-
/O.EXP.KBUF.SV.W.0071.000000T0000Z-240715T2245Z/
Cayuga NY-Oswego NY-
644 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024
...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CAYUGA AND OSWEGO COUNTIES
WILL EXPIRE AT 645 PM EDT...
The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe
limits, and have exited the warned area. Therefore, the warning will
be allowed to expire.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
central New York.
To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
Buffalo.
&&
LAT...LON 4315 7588 4320 7608 4327 7620 4320 7622
4324 7627 4322 7626 4320 7627 4323 7631
4323 7648 4311 7647 4310 7650 4304 7650
4303 7667 4333 7672 4357 7636 4356 7631
4357 7627 4336 7587 4333 7589
TIME...MOT...LOC 2243Z 230DEG 38KT 4357 7625 4346 7604
$$
RSHWhat forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 15, 3:36 PM EDT, 2 hours 6 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 15, 3:36 PM EDT, 2 hours 6 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
336 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
An area of thunderstorms will move across the area this afternoon
and evening, bringing a risk of damaging winds, hail, and heavy
rain. An unsettled pattern will then continue through midweek...with
another round of strong thunderstorms possible Tuesday. A cold front
will sweep across the area midweek...with high pressure building
across our area in its wake and providing mainly dry...cooler...and
much less humid conditions for the second half of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
...RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 538 remains in effect until 7 pm this
evening for all of western and north central New York...as well
as the adjoining waters of Lake Erie...Lake Ontario...and the
Niagara River.
Satellite imagery shows an MCV over nearby Southern Ontario, with
this forecast to track across Lake Ontario this afternoon and
evening. MCVs are commonly linked to severe weather in our area
since they increase wind shear to the south of its track. In this
case, timing is diurnally favorable. On its eastern flank...a broken
line of strong to severe convection continues to develop across
extreme far western New York and eastern Lake Erie...and this should
continue to develop and sweep across the area from west to east this
afternoon and evening...with the timing of the greatest risk for
severe weather roughly through 5 pm across far western New
York...between 3 and 7 pm for the Genesee Valley and Finger Lakes
(Rochester)...and from 4 to 8 pm east of Lake Ontario (Watertown).
While there is not as much wind shear as last week (July 10th) when
there were multiple tornadoes in the forecast area, there is still
ample enough shear to support damaging straight line winds. However,
this should not be downplayed, since damaging winds typically impact
a larger area and can still cause significant damage. The risk for
tornadoes is non-zero, but for most areas straight line wind gusts
will be the main concern along with a secondary potential for large
hail...of which we've already had a few reports with an initial
storm that lifted across the Niagara Frontier a bit earlier.
With PWATs up around 1.75 inches, any storms could also produce
torrential downpours, although the localized flash flooding risk is
a lesser threat as this activity will be moving along fairly
quickly.
Otherwise, it will remain very warm and humid this afternoon with
highs mainly in the mid to upper 80s and dew points in the upper 60s
to lower 70s. With the expected convection...apparent temperatures
should remain below Heat Advisory criteria across the Genesee Valley
and northern Finger Lakes this afternoon.
The MCV will slide east of our region this evening...with associated
showers and storms quickly winding down from west to east in its
wake. Can't rule out a few additional scattered showers or an
isolated storm overnight given the very warm and moist airmass,
however expect the bulk of the area to be largely dry following the
departure of today's MCV. It will be another sultry night with lows
in the upper 60s to low 70s.
During Tuesday the longwave upper-level trough will remain well
upstream of the area over northwest Ontario. A weak low level trough
axis will linger in place from the Ohio Valley to New England, with
its position modulated by numerous rounds of convection and
associated composite outflow. This feature will serve as the conduit
for yet another convectively generated vorticity maxima/MCV that
will move east across our region Tuesday, with this feature
supporting another round of showers and thunderstorms that will
cross the area from west to east.
The 12z/15 suite of model guidance still suggests an earlier arrival
of this next wave compared to today's...though this is just a little
bit slower than seen in last night's guidance. Current timing takes
this feature across western NY between the morning/midday hours,
then the eastern Lake Ontario region/central New York early Tuesday
afternoon. The earlier arrival of forcing, clouds, and showers
relative to the diurnal cycle may act to limit potential instability
across far western New York...with areas further south and east
having a better opportunity for notable diurnal destabilization.
Deep layer shear is not particularly strong (only around 30 knots)
across western New York...however this looks to be greater with
increasing northeastward extent - with this especially the case
across the North Country where 0-6km bulk shear is currently
projected to be in the 40 to 50 knot range. As is typically the
case...the MCV will also likely bring a mesoscale region of enhanced
low/mid level shear, convergence, and ascent as it crosses the
region...thereby providing a more favorable environment for strong
to severe storms.
At this point strong damaging winds again appear likely to be the
primary severe weather threat...along with a secondary risk for
large hail. Additionally...the enhanced shear supplied by the MCV
will also support a low but nonzero risk for an isolated tornado or
two...with this risk likely greatest across the eastern Finger Lakes
and North Country where the environmental shear currently looks to
be highest.
In the wake of the MCV, a few more showers and thunderstorms may
develop along lake breeze driven convergence zones in the afternoon
and evening, mainly from the Southern Tier through the Finger Lakes
and Central NY. Increasing southwest flow off Lake Erie will likely
produce a stable lake shadow northeast of the lake with mainly dry
weather following the morning/midday convection.
Otherwise it will be very warm and humid again Tuesday, with highs
in the low 80s for Western NY and mid to upper 80s from the Genesee
Valley into Central NY. While apparent temperatures could briefly
tickle 95F from the Genesee Valley into Central NY, the brief/
marginal nature of these and the potential for clouds and convection
to keep temperatures a few degrees lower both preclude the need for
any Heat Advisories at this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Longwave trough will gradually work through the Great Lakes
Tuesday night through Wednesday night, ending up in Quebec by
Thursday morning. One or more convectively augmented shortwaves
may cross NY/PA Tuesday night through Wednesday, supporting
ongoing chances of a few showers and thunderstorms at times.
Cold front will gradually settle southeast across the region
late Wednesday afternoon, with chances of showers and
thunderstorms ending from northwest to southeast late Wednesday
through Wednesday night with the frontal passage. Drier and less
humid air will arrive later Wednesday night in the wake of the
cold front.
High pressure will build in Thursday and Thursday night and
result in a period of drier, less humid, and somewhat cooler
weather. High temperatures Thursday in the 70s and lows Thursday
night in the 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
It's looking like this will be a stretch of spectacular weather
across the region, with a broad ridge of high pressure building
across the region. A weak cold front will drop southward across the
region Sunday, but its passage should largely be rain-free with
possibly an isolated shower. Otherwise, there's good model agreement
providing high confidence in rain-free weather. Temperatures will be
near normal with daytime highs averaging in the mid 70s to lower 80s
and nighttime lows mainly in the mid 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A convectively augmented shortwave will push across the region this
afternoon and evening along with a round of showers and strong to
severe thunderstorms. The primary severe weather threat will be
strong wind gusts to 50 knots...with a secondary risk for large
hail. Expect brief periods of MVFR/IFR in heavier showers and
storms, with mainly marginal MVFR to low VFR CIGS otherwise.
This wave will push east of the area between late this afternoon and
early this evening...followed by a return to mainly VFR conditions
for the rest of the night. This being said...there could be a brief
period of lingering MVFR ceilings behind this wave...with additional
MVFR/IFR ceilings also possible across the Southern Tier late
tonight.
On Tuesday yet another convectively-driven wave will cross the area
from west to east during the morning and early afternoon hours. This
will support another round of showers and thunderstorms...with some
of the storms again potentially strong to severe...with this risk
greatest from the Finger Lakes eastward across the North Country. As
is the case today...strong wind gusts to 50 knots and large hail
will be the main severe weather threats. Otherwise brief periods of
MVFR/IFR will again be possible within any stronger/heavier showers
and storms.
In the wake of this second wave...a few more showers and storms and
localized MVFR restrictions may develop along lake breeze driven
convergence zones Tuesday afternoon and evening, mainly from the
Southern Tier through the Finger Lakes and Central NY. Meanwhile
conditions should tend to return to VFR further to the north and
west.
Outlook...
Tuesday night...VFR/MVFR with scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms.
Wednesday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Thursday through Saturday...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A passing disturbance will bring widespread showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening...with some storms capable
of generating strong wind gusts and locally higher waves on both
Lakes Erie and Ontario. In the wake of this disturbance southwest
winds will increase...resulting in a brief period of small craft
conditions on Lake Erie this afternoon and evening.
Southwest flow will increase again late tonight through Tuesday,
producing more notable chop on both lakes, with a period of Small
Craft Advisory conditions appearing increasingly likely on Lake Erie
Tuesday following the passage of yet another disturbance. This
second disturbance will also likely generate a another round of
showers and storms across our region...with any stronger storms
again capable of strong wind gusts and locally higher waves.
Periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms will then continue
across eastern Lake Erie and Lake Ontario through Wednesday, with
the potential for locally higher winds and waves in and near any
storms.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LEZ040-
041.
&&
SYNOPSIS...JM/JJR
NEAR TERM...Apffel/Hitchcock/JM/JJR
SHORT TERM...Hitchcock/JJR/TMA
LONG TERM...Apffel
AVIATION...JM/JJR
MARINE...JM/JJRHazardous weather outlook, Jul 15, 5:39 PM EDT, 3 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Buffalo NY 539 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 NYZ021-162145- Allegany- 539 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 538 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Severe Thunderstorm Watch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms again Tuesday. Isolated damaging wind gusts and brief torrential downpours will be the primary hazards. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ001-002-011-012-020-162145- Niagara-Orleans-Genesee-Wyoming-Cattaraugus- 539 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms again Tuesday. Isolated damaging wind gusts and brief torrential downpours will be the primary hazards. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ010-019-085-162145- Northern Erie-Chautauqua-Southern Erie- 539 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 ...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Beach Hazards Statement. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms again Tuesday. Isolated damaging wind gusts and brief torrential downpours will be the primary hazards. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ003>006-013-014-162145- Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Livingston-Ontario- 539 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 538 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north central New York. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Severe Thunderstorm Watch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms again Tuesday. Isolated damaging wind gusts and brief torrential downpours will be the primary hazards. Tuesday will also be very warm and humid, with the heat index possibly reaching the mid 90s prior to the arrival of thunderstorms. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf NYZ007-008-162145- Jefferson-Lewis- 539 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 538 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Severe Thunderstorm Watch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms again Tuesday. Isolated damaging wind gusts and brief torrential downpours will be the primary hazards. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042-062-SLZ022-024-162145- Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo- Lower Niagara River- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg- Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis- 539 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake Ontario and Saint Lawrence River. .DAY ONE...Tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf LOZ043>045-063>065-162145- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- 539 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 538 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Severe Thunderstorm Watch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms again Tuesday. Isolated strong wind gusts and locally higher waves will be the primary hazards. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jul 15, 4:45 PM EDT, 57 minutes before
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Buffalo NY 445 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 NYZ010-019-085-152300- Northern Erie-Chautauqua-Southern Erie- Including the cities of Buffalo, Jamestown, Orchard Park, and Springville 445 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 ...PONDING WATER AND GUSTY WINDS FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE... Recent rainfall has caused ponding of water on area road ways in the Buffalo area, Boston Hills region in Southern Erie County, and Interstate 90. Expect poor travel conditions in low-lying areas through 6 p.m. which will hinder the evening commute. In addition to the rain, winds will pick up between 5 and 8 p.m. with gusts up to 45 mph possible near the lake shores. These winds are not associated with thunderstorms. Apffel
Local storm report, Jul 15, 4:48 PM EDT, 54 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
448 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0415 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg 2 SSW Lakeville 42.81N 77.72W
07/15/2024 Livingston NY Trained Spotter
Tree down on West Lake Road. Time estimated
from radar.
0415 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg Avon 42.92N 77.75W
07/15/2024 Livingston NY Trained Spotter
Power lines down. Time estimated from radar.
&&Local storm report, Jul 15, 4:59 PM EDT, 43 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
459 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0440 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg 2 SE Mendon 42.98N 77.47W
07/15/2024 Ontario NY 911 Call Center
Tree fell blocking roadway.
0440 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg 1 SE Honeoye Falls 42.94N 77.58W
07/15/2024 Ontario NY 911 Call Center
Tree fell blocking roadway.
0442 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg 3 N Rushville 42.81N 77.23W
07/15/2024 Ontario NY 911 Call Center
Tree and wires down.
0448 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg 2 SE Canandaigua 42.87N 77.25W
07/15/2024 Ontario NY 911 Call Center
Tree fell on motorhome trailer.
&&Local storm report, Jul 15, 5:12 PM EDT, 30 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
512 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0448 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg 3 E Victor 42.98N 77.35W
07/15/2024 Ontario NY 911 Call Center
Multiple trees down.
0442 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg 3 E Victor 42.98N 77.35W
07/15/2024 Ontario NY 911 Call Center
Tree fell blocking roadway.
0425 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg Lima 42.90N 77.61W
07/15/2024 Livingston NY NWS Employee
Multiple trees down.
&&Local storm report, Jul 15, 5:16 PM EDT, 26 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
516 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0448 PM Hail 4 E Victor 42.99N 77.33W
07/15/2024 M2.50 Inch Ontario NY Public
&&
EAJLocal storm report, Jul 15, 5:22 PM EDT, 20 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
522 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0448 PM Hail 4 E Victor 42.99N 77.33W
07/15/2024 E3.00 Inch Ontario NY Public
&&The office that day
Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 15, 8:57 AM EDT | Small Craft Advisory | BUF | 35 hr | |
| Jul 15, 11:50 AM EDT | Special Marine Warning | BUF | 55 min | |
| Jul 15, 1:08 PM EDT | Special Marine Warning | BUF | 21 min | |
| Jul 15, 1:12 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BUF | Erie, Niagara | 48 min |
| Jul 15, 1:50 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | BUF | Genesee | 40 min |
| Jul 15, 1:54 PM EDT | Special Marine Warning | BUF | 66 min | |
| Jul 15, 1:56 PM EDT | Special Marine Warning | BUF | 49 min | |
| Jul 15, 2:07 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BUF | Chautauqua, Erie | 53 min |
| Jul 15, 2:09 PM EDT | Special Marine Warning | BUF | 36 min | |
| Jul 15, 2:22 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BUF | Erie, Genesee, Niagara, Orleans | 53 min |
| Jul 15, 2:49 PM EDT | Special Marine Warning | BUF | 41 min | |
| Jul 15, 2:53 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BUF | Erie, Genesee, Wyoming | 67 min |
| Jul 15, 3:06 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BUF | Allegany, Cattaraugus, Erie, Wyoming | 54 min |
| Jul 15, 3:08 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BUF | Erie, Genesee, Monroe, Niagara, Orleans | 27 min |
| Jul 15, 3:30 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BUF | Genesee, Livingston, Monroe, Wyoming | 60 min |
| Jul 15, 3:31 PM EDT | Beach Hazards Statement | BUF | Chautauqua, Erie | 28 hr |
| Jul 15, 3:49 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | BUF | Genesee, Livingston, Wyoming | 26 min |
| Jul 15, 4:07 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | BUF | Erie, Genesee, Wyoming | 4 hr |
| Jul 15, 4:17 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BUF | Livingston, Monroe, Ontario, Wayne | 58 min |
| Jul 15, 4:40 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | BUF | Ontario, Wayne | 35 min |
| Jul 15, 4:51 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BUF | Cayuga, Ontario, Oswego, Wayne | 54 min |
| Jul 15, 4:55 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | BUF | Genesee, Livingston, Monroe, Ontario, Wyoming | 4 hr |
| Jul 15, 5:26 PM EDT | Special Marine Warning | BUF | 64 min | |
| Jul 15, 6:24 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BUF | Lewis, Oswego | 66 min |
| Jul 15, 7:20 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BUF | Lewis, Oswego | 55 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in New York, 2024Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2024
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.