Severe Thunderstorm Warning 69, NWS Buffalo, NY

300 
WWUS51 KBUF 152048
SVSBUF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
448 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

NYC051-152057-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SV.W.0069.000000T0000Z-240715T2115Z/
Livingston NY-
448 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN LIVINGSTON COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...

The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM EDT for
western New York.

&&

LAT...LON 4285 7748 4307 7746 4327 7720 4279 7723
TIME...MOT...LOC 2047Z 253DEG 36KT 4299 7734 

$$

NYC055-069-117-152115-
/O.CON.KBUF.SV.W.0069.000000T0000Z-240715T2115Z/
Wayne NY-Monroe NY-Ontario NY-
448 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN WAYNE...EAST CENTRAL MONROE AND NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO
COUNTIES...

At 447 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Victor, or 7
miles northwest of Canandaigua, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable 
         tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, 
         roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
Canandaigua, Fairport, Palmyra, Victor, Bristol, Bloomfield,
Farmington, Walworth, East Bloomfield, and Manchester.

This includes Interstate 90 between exits 43 and 45.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly
from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the
basement or small central room in a sturdy structure.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4285 7748 4307 7746 4327 7720 4279 7723
TIME...MOT...LOC 2047Z 253DEG 36KT 4299 7734 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH

$$

RSH

941 
WWUS51 KBUF 152111
SVSBUF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
511 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

NYC055-069-117-152120-
/O.EXP.KBUF.SV.W.0069.000000T0000Z-240715T2115Z/
Wayne NY-Monroe NY-Ontario NY-
511 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN WAYNE...EAST
CENTRAL MONROE AND NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 515
PM EDT...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and has exited the warned area. Therefore, the warning will
be allowed to expire.  However, heavy rain is still expected with
this thunderstorm.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM EDT for
western New York.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
Buffalo.

&&

LAT...LON 4285 7748 4307 7746 4327 7720 4279 7723
TIME...MOT...LOC 2110Z 250DEG 29KT 4305 7713 

$$

RSH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
336 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of thunderstorms will move across the area this afternoon
and evening, bringing a risk of damaging winds, hail, and heavy
rain. An unsettled pattern will then continue through midweek...with
another round of strong thunderstorms possible Tuesday. A cold front
will sweep across the area midweek...with high pressure building
across our area in its wake and providing mainly dry...cooler...and
much less humid conditions for the second half of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
...RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY...

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 538 remains in effect until 7 pm this
evening for all of western and north central New York...as well
as the adjoining waters of Lake Erie...Lake Ontario...and the
Niagara River.

Satellite imagery shows an MCV over nearby Southern Ontario, with
this forecast to track across Lake Ontario this afternoon and
evening. MCVs are commonly linked to severe weather in our area
since they increase wind shear to the south of its track. In this
case, timing is diurnally favorable. On its eastern flank...a broken
line of strong to severe convection continues to develop across
extreme far western New York and eastern Lake Erie...and this should
continue to develop and sweep across the area from west to east this
afternoon and evening...with the timing of the greatest risk for
severe weather roughly through 5 pm across far western New
York...between 3 and 7 pm for the Genesee Valley and Finger Lakes
(Rochester)...and from 4 to 8 pm east of Lake Ontario (Watertown).

While there is not as much wind shear as last week (July 10th) when
there were multiple tornadoes in the forecast area, there is still
ample enough shear to support damaging straight line winds. However,
this should not be downplayed, since damaging winds typically impact
a larger area and can still cause significant damage. The risk for
tornadoes is non-zero, but for most areas straight line wind gusts
will be the main concern along with a secondary potential for large
hail...of which we've already had a few reports with an initial
storm that lifted across the Niagara Frontier a bit earlier.

With PWATs up around 1.75 inches, any storms could also produce
torrential downpours, although the localized flash flooding risk is
a lesser threat as this activity will be moving along fairly
quickly.

Otherwise, it will remain very warm and humid this afternoon with
highs mainly in the mid to upper 80s and dew points in the upper 60s
to lower 70s. With the expected convection...apparent temperatures
should remain below Heat Advisory criteria across the Genesee Valley
and northern Finger Lakes this afternoon.

The MCV will slide east of our region this evening...with associated
showers and storms quickly winding down from west to east in its
wake. Can't rule out a few additional scattered showers or an
isolated storm overnight given the very warm and moist airmass,
however expect the bulk of the area to be largely dry following the
departure of today's MCV. It will be another sultry night with lows
in the upper 60s to low 70s.

During Tuesday the longwave upper-level trough will remain well
upstream of the area over northwest Ontario. A weak low level trough
axis will linger in place from the Ohio Valley to New England, with
its position modulated by numerous rounds of convection and
associated composite outflow. This feature will serve as the conduit
for yet another convectively generated vorticity maxima/MCV that
will move east across our region Tuesday, with this feature
supporting another round of showers and thunderstorms that will
cross the area from west to east.

The 12z/15 suite of model guidance still suggests an earlier arrival
of this next wave compared to today's...though this is just a little
bit slower than seen in last night's guidance. Current timing takes
this feature across western NY between the morning/midday hours,
then the eastern Lake Ontario region/central New York early Tuesday
afternoon. The earlier arrival of forcing, clouds, and showers
relative to the diurnal cycle may act to limit potential instability
across far western New York...with areas further south and east
having a better opportunity for notable diurnal destabilization.
Deep layer shear is not particularly strong (only around 30 knots)
across western New York...however this looks to be greater with
increasing northeastward extent - with this especially the case
across the North Country where 0-6km bulk shear is currently
projected to be in the 40 to 50 knot range. As is typically the
case...the MCV will also likely bring a mesoscale region of enhanced
low/mid level shear, convergence, and ascent as it crosses the
region...thereby providing a more favorable environment for strong
to severe storms.

At this point strong damaging winds again appear likely to be the
primary severe weather threat...along with a secondary risk for
large hail. Additionally...the enhanced shear supplied by the MCV
will also support a low but nonzero risk for an isolated tornado or
two...with this risk likely greatest across the eastern Finger Lakes
and North Country where the environmental shear currently looks to
be highest.

In the wake of the MCV, a few more showers and thunderstorms may
develop along lake breeze driven convergence zones in the afternoon
and evening, mainly from the Southern Tier through the Finger Lakes
and Central NY. Increasing southwest flow off Lake Erie will likely
produce a stable lake shadow northeast of the lake with mainly dry
weather following the morning/midday convection.

Otherwise it will be very warm and humid again Tuesday, with highs
in the low 80s for Western NY and mid to upper 80s from the Genesee
Valley into Central NY. While apparent temperatures could briefly
tickle 95F from the Genesee Valley into Central NY, the brief/
marginal nature of these and the potential for clouds and convection
to keep temperatures a few degrees lower both preclude the need for
any Heat Advisories at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Longwave trough will gradually work through the Great Lakes
Tuesday night through Wednesday night, ending up in Quebec by
Thursday morning. One or more convectively augmented shortwaves
may cross NY/PA Tuesday night through Wednesday, supporting
ongoing chances of a few showers and thunderstorms at times.

Cold front will gradually settle southeast across the region
late Wednesday afternoon, with chances of showers and
thunderstorms ending from northwest to southeast late Wednesday
through Wednesday night with the frontal passage. Drier and less
humid air will arrive later Wednesday night in the wake of the
cold front.

High pressure will build in Thursday and Thursday night and
result in a period of drier, less humid, and somewhat cooler
weather. High temperatures Thursday in the 70s and lows Thursday
night in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
It's looking like this will be a stretch of spectacular weather
across the region, with a broad ridge of high pressure building
across the region. A weak cold front will drop southward across the
region Sunday, but its passage should largely be rain-free with
possibly an isolated shower. Otherwise, there's good model agreement
providing high confidence in rain-free weather. Temperatures will be
near normal with daytime highs averaging in the mid 70s to lower 80s
and nighttime lows mainly in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A convectively augmented shortwave will push across the region this
afternoon and evening along with a round of showers and strong to
severe thunderstorms. The primary severe weather threat will be
strong wind gusts to 50 knots...with a secondary risk for large
hail. Expect brief periods of MVFR/IFR in heavier showers and
storms, with mainly marginal MVFR to low VFR CIGS otherwise.

This wave will push east of the area between late this afternoon and
early this evening...followed by a return to mainly VFR conditions
for the rest of the night. This being said...there could be a brief
period of lingering MVFR ceilings behind this wave...with additional
MVFR/IFR ceilings also possible across the Southern Tier late
tonight.

On Tuesday yet another convectively-driven wave will cross the area
from west to east during the morning and early afternoon hours. This
will support another round of showers and thunderstorms...with some
of the storms again potentially strong to severe...with this risk
greatest from the Finger Lakes eastward across the North Country. As
is the case today...strong wind gusts to 50 knots and large hail
will be the main severe weather threats. Otherwise brief periods of
MVFR/IFR will again be possible within any stronger/heavier showers
and storms.

In the wake of this second wave...a few more showers and storms and
localized MVFR restrictions may develop along lake breeze driven
convergence zones Tuesday afternoon and evening, mainly from the
Southern Tier through the Finger Lakes and Central NY. Meanwhile
conditions should tend to return to VFR further to the north and
west.

Outlook...

Tuesday night...VFR/MVFR with scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms.

Wednesday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday through Saturday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A passing disturbance will bring widespread showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening...with some storms capable
of generating strong wind gusts and locally higher waves on both
Lakes Erie and Ontario. In the wake of this disturbance southwest
winds will increase...resulting in a brief period of small craft
conditions on Lake Erie this afternoon and evening.

Southwest flow will increase again late tonight through Tuesday,
producing more notable chop on both lakes, with a period of Small
Craft Advisory conditions appearing increasingly likely on Lake Erie
Tuesday following the passage of yet another disturbance. This
second disturbance will also likely generate a another round of
showers and storms across our region...with any stronger storms
again capable of strong wind gusts and locally higher waves.

Periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms will then continue
across eastern Lake Erie and Lake Ontario through Wednesday, with
the potential for locally higher winds and waves in and near any
storms.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LEZ040-
         041.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JM/JJR
NEAR TERM...Apffel/Hitchcock/JM/JJR
SHORT TERM...Hitchcock/JJR/TMA
LONG TERM...Apffel
AVIATION...JM/JJR
MARINE...JM/JJR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
340 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

NYZ001-002-011-012-020-021-161945-
Niagara-Orleans-Genesee-Wyoming-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
340 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 538 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms again Tuesday.
Isolated damaging wind gusts and brief torrential downpours will be
the primary hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ010-019-085-161945-
Northern Erie-Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
340 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 538 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.
   Beach Hazards Statement.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms again Tuesday.
Isolated damaging wind gusts and brief torrential downpours will be
the primary hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ003>006-013-014-161945-
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Livingston-Ontario-
340 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 538 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms again Tuesday.
Isolated damaging wind gusts and brief torrential downpours will be
the primary hazards.

Tuesday will also be very warm and humid, with the heat index
possibly reaching the mid 90s prior to the arrival of thunderstorms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ007-008-161945-
Jefferson-Lewis-
340 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 538 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms again Tuesday.
Isolated damaging wind gusts and brief torrential downpours will be
the primary hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-161945-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
340 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 538 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms again Tuesday.
Isolated strong wind gusts and locally higher waves will be the
primary hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

SLZ022-024-161945-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
340 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of the
Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms from mid afternoon
through mid evening today. Isolated strong wind gusts and locally
higher waves will be the primary hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms again Tuesday.
Isolated strong wind gusts and locally higher waves will be the
primary hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Apffel

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
153 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0120 PM     Hail             3 NW Buffalo            42.92N 78.89W
07/15/2024  E1.00 Inch       Erie               NY   Public

&&

EAJ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
248 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0237 PM     Marine Tstm Wind 3 NW Lackawanna         42.85N 78.86W
07/15/2024  M40 MPH          Erie               NY   Mesonet

            Buffalo Skyway.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
312 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0236 PM     Marine Tstm Wind 2 WSW Buffalo           42.88N 78.89W
07/15/2024  M53 MPH          Erie               NY   Buoy

            Buoy station BUFN6 Buffalo.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
344 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0307 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Alden                   42.90N 78.49W
07/15/2024                   Erie               NY   Trained Spotter

            Numerous trees down in Alden. One fell on a
            house on Broadway.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
346 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0346 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 SE Millgrove          42.92N 78.53W
07/15/2024                   Erie               NY   Trained Spotter

            Trees down on Wende Rd.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
349 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0124 PM     Hail             2 N Buffalo             42.92N 78.87W
07/15/2024  M1.25 Inch       Erie               NY   Public

            Report from mPING: Half Dollar (1.25 in.).

&&