Severe Thunderstorm Warning 53, NWS Buffalo, NY

767 
WWUS51 KBUF 101737
SVSBUF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
137 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

NYC029-063-101747-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SV.W.0053.000000T0000Z-240710T1800Z/
Erie NY-Niagara NY-
137 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN ERIE AND
SOUTHWESTERN NIAGARA COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and has exited the warned area. Therefore, the warning has
been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for western New
York.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
Buffalo.

&&

LAT...LON 4312 7906 4308 7846 4304 7846 4282 7858
      4283 7893 4291 7890 4293 7891 4296 7893
      4296 7896 4299 7901 4302 7902 4305 7900
      4306 7900 4308 7907 4308 7908
TIME...MOT...LOC 1736Z 186DEG 27KT 4313 7867 

$$

HSK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
822 AM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The remnants of Beryl will impact the region today and tonight.
A soaking one to two inches of rain can be expected in many
areas through tonight, with higher amounts possible east of Lake
Ontario. Along with tropical downpours, there will be the risk
for strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and this
evening as a cold front moves through. Additional chances for
showers and a few thunderstorms will continue through Thursday,
before high pressure brings improving conditions by the end of
the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
...Significant Rains AND increased severe weather threat from
the remnants of Beryl today into tonight...

...Flood Watch in effect for the eastern Lake Ontario region
this afternoon and this evening...

Beryl's remnant low over central Indiana early this morning will
move east-northeastward into the lower Great Lakes today as a
mid level trough moves into the Great Lakes. A warm front
currently extending east from the remnant low into Pennsylvania.
Broad ascent and associated area moderate to heavy rain and
embedded thunder rapidly lifting into the region early this
morning. This area will continue expand across the region this
morning as the low and warm front continue to approach the region.
Surge of tropical moisture with precipitable water values in
excess of two inches pushing northward into the region is
expected to result in a window of where rainfall amounts could
exceed an inch this morning.

By this afternoon, the warm front will have moved into New York
State, likely as far north as the I-90 corridor with the low
crossing the Southern Tier of the state. Along and south of the
warm front, growing instability along with very favorable shear
profiles with forecast soundings showing 0-6 km shear values
near 50 knots will greatly increase the severe weather risk,
with damaging winds the primary threat. In addition, 0-3 km
storm-relative helicity values in excess of 300 m2/s2 in
vicinity of the warm frontal boundary will bring the increased
potential for supercells and tornadoes with the main area of
concern just south of a line from Buffalo to Rochester to
Fulton, highlighting the Finger Lakes region and upper Genesee
Valley. This area has been place in an enhanced risk for severe
thunderstorms in the SPC Day One Outlook. Have added the mention of
possible tornadoes to the general point and click forecast grids for
the Finger Lakes region for the afternoon and early evening.

In addition to the severe weather threat this afternoon, widespread
tropical rains will continue north of the warm front, with
additional rainfall amounts likely in excess of an inch. Embedded
thunderstorms will easily enhance these amounts. Overall rainfall
amounts from Buffalo to Rochester should be from 1.5-2 inches. Six
hour flash flood guidance around 2.25" in this area will limit the
risk for widespread flooding concerns. The heaviest rainfall should
focus across the eastern Lake Ontario region with 2+ inches likely.
With heavier rainfall amounts expected in this region a Flood Watch
has been issued which corresponds to WPC's Day One moderate risk for
excessive rainfall outlook.

It will remain very unsettled tonight, particularly over the eastern
Lake Ontario region. The center of the remnant low will drift across
the far western counties, while the axis of deepest tropical
moisture and associated will be slowly exiting via the Thousand
Islands and St Lawrence valley. This could produce an additional
inch to an inch and a half rain for the Eastern Lake Ontario region,
bringing 24 hour amounts to three inches or more.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
By Thursday morning Beryl's elongated remnant surface low will be
centered across Lake Ontario and upper Saint Lawrence Valley. The
low will continue to weaken as it slowly tracks into Southern Quebec
and far northern New England through the course of the day. While
its attendant axis of deep tropical moisture that helped produce the
widespread moderate to heavy rains across our area will be well to
our east by this time, the continued close proximity of the remnant
low will keep clouds and at least some scattered lighter showers
going across the area through the day, with a few rumbles of thunder
still possible east of Lake Ontario. A cooler day on tap with highs
ranging through the 70s, although it will remain on the muggy side
with surface dewpoints remaining in the mid to upper 60s.

Thursday night the remnant low will continue to pull further away to
the northeast. This may allow a few scattered showers to persist
through the first half of Thursday night east of Lake Ontario,
before surface high pressure and drier air will ridge further
northeastward into our region from the Ohio Valley. This will help
to bring an end to any lingering scattered showers across eastern
areas with fair dry weather otherwise prevailing. Lows will dip into
the upper 50s to mid 60s as surface dewpoints drop back a little
more, making for at least somewhat more comfortable conditions
compared to the previous few nights.

Friday and Friday night the aforementioned surface ridge will remain
draped across our region, while a weakening mid level trough stuck
across the central Great Lakes Friday, eventually moves by just to
our north and west Friday night. Expecting a mainly dry day and
night, however cannot rule out a scattered shower or two along any
lake breeze circulations during peak diurnal heating. Otherwise,
temps Friday will rebound some with highs mainly in the low to mid
80s, with upper 70s higher terrain and North Country. Lows Friday
night mainly in the low to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Guidance continues to advertise a dry first half of the weekend with
ridging surface and aloft in control. This area of high pressure
will also keep any precipitation associated with a weak wave riding
northeast along the Atlantic seaboard to our east. Mainly dry
weather expected for the bulk of Sunday as well, however a trough
approaching from the central Great Lakes may produce a few scattered
shower/storms later Sunday as moisture and instability start to
increase in advance of this feature. Best precip chances will be
across western NY. It will be very warm with highs well into the 80s
both days, along with humid conditions persisting.

Our weather will become a bit more unsettled for the first part of
the new work week as a couple mid level waves and a surface cold
front cross the region. This will bring better shower and storm
chances, especially if any of these aforementioned features can be
timed with peak diurnal heating. Otherwise, expect very warm and
humid conditions to persist through the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The remnants of Beryl will impact the region through tonight. This
will bring periods of moderate to heavy rain along with a few
embedded thunderstorms this morning. This will result in flight
conditions lowering to MVFR/IFR.

Another round of tropical rains and scattered thunderstorms will
develop this afternoon into this evening, before tapering off
overnight tonight. There is a risk for strong to severe
thunderstorms, with this risk greatest south of a KBUF-KROC-KFZY
line. The main threat would be strong wind gusts. MVFR/IFR
conditions will continue tonight.

Outlook...

Thursday...Improvement to MVFR/VFR with leftover scattered showers.
Friday...Mainly VFR with a low chance of showers and thunderstorms
across the Southern Tier/Finger Lakes.
Saturday...Mainly VFR with a low chance of showers and thunderstorms
well inland from the lakes.
Sunday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure associated with the tropical remnants of Beryl will
push into Ohio, and this combined with high pressure to the
north will result in a tightening pressure gradient. Northeasterly
winds will increase, especially on Lake Ontario today. Small craft
headlines will remain for the western two-thirds of the Lake Ontario
waters, and the Lower Niagara River as outlined below. There also
will be several rounds of rain with embedded thunderstorms. Some
storms may produce gusty winds.

The pressure gradient will weaken tonight as the remnant low weakens
with winds diminishing.

Beryl's remnant low will exit northeast across southern Ontario
Thursday with winds shifting to southwest and freshening to 15 to 20
knots with waves possibly reaching 4 feet on the eastern end of
Lake Erie.

Quiet marine conditions are expected to return Thursday night and
persist into the weekend as high pressure build into the eastern
Great Lakes.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Beach Hazards Statement from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through
     late tonight for NYZ001.
     Flood Watch from noon EDT today through this evening for
     NYZ006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LOZ030.
         Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for LOZ042-
         043.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...RSH/TMA
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
513 AM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

NYZ010-011-110915-
Northern Erie-Genesee-
513 AM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

The remnants of Tropical System Beryl will pass across our region
today and tonight. While this will bring a soaking rainfall of one
to two inches to most locations, there could be localized corridors
of heavier rainfall that may result in flooding.

There is a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening, with damaging wind gusts the primary severe weather threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ003>005-110915-
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-
513 AM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

The remnants of Tropical System Beryl will pass across our region
today and tonight. While this will bring a soaking rainfall of one
to two inches to most locations, there could be localized corridors
of heavier rainfall that may result in flooding.

There is a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening, with damaging wind gusts the primary severe weather threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ019-020-085-110915-
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
513 AM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening, with damaging wind gusts the primary severe weather threat.
Torrential tropical downpours with thunderstorms could produce
localized flash flooding this afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ002-110915-
Orleans-
513 AM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

The remnants of Tropical System Beryl will pass across our region
today and tonight. While this will bring a soaking rainfall of one
to two inches to most locations, there could be localized corridors
of heavier rainfall that may result in flooding.

There is a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening, with damaging wind gusts the primary severe weather threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ001-110915-
Niagara-
513 AM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.

The remnants of Tropical System Beryl will pass across our region
today and tonight. While this will bring a soaking rainfall of one
to two inches to most locations, there could be localized corridors
of heavier rainfall that may result in flooding.

There is a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening, with damaging wind gusts the primary severe weather threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ007-008-110915-
Jefferson-Lewis-
513 AM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

There is a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening, with damaging wind gusts the primary severe weather threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ012>014-021-110915-
Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Allegany-
513 AM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is an Enhanced Risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon
and evening, with damaging wind gusts the primary severe weather
threat. Isolated tornadoes are possible. Torrential tropical
downpours with thunderstorms could produce localized flash flooding
this afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ006-110915-
Oswego-
513 AM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

There is a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening, with damaging wind gusts the primary severe weather threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-110915-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
513 AM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake
Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
825 AM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0609 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 NE Akron              43.03N 78.48W
07/10/2024                   Erie               NY   Trained Spotter

            Trees down in the road off of Bloomingdale
            Road.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
900 AM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

NYZ003>006-008-010>014-019>021-085-101700-
Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Lewis-Northern Erie-Genesee-
Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Rochester, Newark, Fair Haven, Oswego,
Lowville, Buffalo, Batavia, Warsaw, Geneseo, Canandaigua,
Jamestown, Olean, Wellsville, Orchard Park, and Springville
900 AM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

...Heavy Rain Today with Potentially Dangerous Thunderstorms...

Heavy rain from the tropical remnants of Beryl will soak the
region today and tonight with rainfall amounts ranging from a
half inch across the western Southern Tier and up to two inches
across the lake plains from Buffalo to Rochester...to potentially
more than three inches over the Eastern Lake Ontario region. This
could lead to local flooding problems...particularly in urban
areas and areas with elevated terrain.

Possibly a greater risk will come from strong thunderstorms that
will develop this afternoon. While there will be tropical
downpours and localized wind gusts to 40 mph...there will be
unusually elevated risk for tornadoes. The greatest risk for
tornadic activity will be across the Finger Lakes region and parts
of the western Southern Tier.

RSH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1053 AM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1040 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 ENE Sackets Harbor    43.96N 76.06W
07/10/2024                   Jefferson          NY   Trained Spotter

            12 inch diameter tree limbs down near routes
            180 and 3.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1217 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1034 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Henderson               43.85N 76.18W
07/10/2024                   Jefferson          NY   Law Enforcement

            Trees and powerlines down. Time estimated
            from radar.

1037 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Sackets Harbor          43.94N 76.12W
07/10/2024                   Jefferson          NY   Law Enforcement

            Trees and powerlines down in Sackets. Time
            estimated from radar.

1047 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Adams Center            43.86N 76.00W
07/10/2024                   Jefferson          NY   Law Enforcement

            Trees and powerlines down in Adams Center.
            Time estimated from radar.

1142 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 ENE Ripley            42.28N 79.67W
07/10/2024                   Chautauqua         NY   Law Enforcement

            Tree down on Klondike Road near Ripley.
            Report from county sheriff. Time estimated
            from radar.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1226 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1219 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Forestville             42.47N 79.17W
07/10/2024                   Chautauqua         NY   Trained Spotter

            Trained spotter reported tree damage on
            Center Street in Forestville.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1241 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1205 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 S Forestville         42.43N 79.18W
07/10/2024                   Chautauqua         NY   Trained Spotter

            Spotters report trees down and barn roof
            blown off near Straight Road and Zahm Road.
            Time estimated from radar.

&&