Severe Thunderstorm Warning 49, NWS Burlington, VT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
320 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and storms in New York will spread east into Vermont,
into the overnight hours. Very heavy rain and strong storms are
possible. Scattered to numerous instances of flash flooding
will be possible due to locally heavy rainfall rates.
Precipitation will become isolated to scattered tomorrow, with a
general drying trend. Temperatures will remain warm and humid.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 308 PM EDT Wednesday...It has been an interesting day to be
sure. Although warm air made northward progress with partial
clearing to boot, cool, stable air has made its way back down
with some in-situ drainage flow as precipitation has been
ongoing across the northern tier with the jet stream
intensifying to our north. But with the tropical airmass, we
seen some impressive convective development on the south side of
the boundary, particularly upstream in NWS Buffalo's region.
Although storms have generally decayed in our region, we should
see activity ramp up as the surface low of Beryl's remnants
strengthens low level flow and sends warm air back north. The
warm, moist air that shifted north earlier necessitated a Heat
Advisory, and the better instability and upstream observations
regarding thunderstorm intensity has brought us to the areawide
Tornado Watch. Parts of the St. Lawrence Valley are already
approaching two inches of rainfall since this morning, and this
activity will generally slide east into Vermont. Although the
nature of convection tends to be more spotty than a widespread
system, these torrential downpours mean that the Flood Watch is
still good.

What has changed is that rainfall amounts have decreased in the
forecast across Rutland/Windsor County. The area will remain outside
the better axis of precipitation due to the warm front being further
north. However, given that any convection could easily drop high
rainfall amounts, the Flood Watch will remain down south. Late this
evening into tonight, one last slug of moisture will advect north
along a developing triple point. This will mainly be focused across
Vermont. This should then depart predawn into Thursday. With the
upper trough, some pop up convection is possible, but unlike to
produce anything significant. Conditions remaining warm in Vermont.
We may need to watch dewpoints again for Heat Advisories in the
lower Connecticut River Valley with temperatures in the upper 80s,
but we'll see. It will get slightly less humid, but still likely in
the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 308 PM EDT Wednesday...Friday will be a good day for recovery
from any flooding experienced Wednesday and Thursday. Skies will
gradually clear throughout the day as the remnants of Beryl get a
little more distant from our CWA. We could see some light scattered
showers in Saint Lawrence county as well as far northern Vermont,
but measurable precipitation will be isolated. Heat values will
remain above normal for most of the area primarily being driven by
consistently high surface moisture.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 308 PM EDT Wednesday...High pressure to our east will keep us
dry through the weekend. A warming trend will continue through
Sunday, with temperatures reaching into the low 90s in the Champlain
and Connecticut river valleys. Early next week we are looking at a
low pressure system transversing along the international border,
bringing a threat of thunderstorms. We will continue to refine the
timing and impacts as the models converge.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 18Z Thursday...The first area of showers and storms is
lifting north of the international border. South of KMSS and
west of KSLK, severe thunderstorms are developing. So over the
Across northern New York, these will continue for the next 4 to
6 hours before shifting into Vermont about 20z to 02z. Areas of
locally heavy rain could produce IFR cigs, vsbys. A broader
batch of rain will develop near KPBG and Vermont terminals
between 02z and 06z. Winds for the next 12 hours will be hard to
track with a tendency towards northeast flow at KPBG, KBTV, and
KMSS along the warm front, but with thunderstorms and
approaching low pressure, there may be some variability.
Thunderstorms may also produce gusty winds, and have notated
VRB10G20kts or close to that in TEMPOs for many terminals. Then
heavy rain and thunderstorms will begin to diminish in
coverage beyond 06z. However, hazy conditions in tropical
moisture may keep visibilities between 4-6SM and lower stratus
down to 300 to 1200 ft agl appear likely overnight. After 12z,
mainly VCSH conditions are expected with south to southwest flow
at 5 to 10 knots, perhaps a few gusts to 15 knots. Several
terminals may briefly experience LLWS conditions, but it appears
to brief to highlight explicitly. But any terminal could
experience rough conditions with winds increasing to 30-35 knots
around 2000 ft agl.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance
TSRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 400 AM EDT Wednesday...Heavy rain is occurring, the
overall certainty of higher rainfall rates remains 40-70
percent chance in exceeding flash flood guidance, resulting in
a Moderate Risk Outlook (Level 3 of 4) in the Excessive Rainfall
Outlook for most of our forecast area. Although the nature of
precipitation has been more localized within convection, the
torrential rainfall rates has this looking solid still.

Antecedent wet conditions, in addition to the locally heavy
rain that has occurred in central Vermont is resulting in a
greater vulnerability to flash flooding. The strongest
thunderstorms have been producing rainfall rates of the
potential for rainfall of 1 to 2 inches in a 3 hour time span.

Unlike last year's flood event, this will not be a long duration
scenario. Additionally, parts of the Adirondacks are at a
greater risk for flash flooding than last year's July event.
The heaviest rainfall is likely to fall within a 9 to 15 hour
window today into tonight. With this, widespread rainfall
totals are forecast to be 2 to 3 inches and this would likely
involve an embedded swath where values of 3 to 5 inches. Within
that 3 to 5 inch swath, there could be a few spots that approach
6 inches. Where values in excess of 3 inches occur, additional
flooding across low lying plains and roads in addition to flash
flood concerns. Widespread washouts and water entering homes and
businesses could also take place at the upper bounds.

On Thursday, runoff from the rain will cause sharp river rises.
At this time, the East Branch of the Ausable at Ausable Forks
is forecast at minor flood stage about Thursday morning, which
can have impacts in Keene, New York and sections of road near
Route 9N in and around Marcy Field. The Winooski at Waterbury is
now forecast to reach minor flood stage as well. This typically
causes low lying field flooding around Waterbury and Richmond.
The Mad River at Moretown is also forecast to rise towards minor
flood stage crest just below moderate stage. This usually caused
field flooding in Waitsfield and Moretown with flooding on local
roads and possible Route 100B. We'll also maintain a close eye
on the Winooski at Essex, the Lamoille at Johnson, and the
Missisquoi at North Troy if heavier rain makes its way north.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

At this time, it appears that redevelopment of convection could
be limited Thursday afternoon, but we will continue to monitor
the position of dry, stable air that could limit this potential.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for VTZ001>011-016>021.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VTZ009-011-021.
NY...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for NYZ026>031-034-035-
     087.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes
SHORT TERM...Langbauer
LONG TERM...Langbauer
AVIATION...Haynes
HYDROLOGY...Team BTV

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Burlington VT
448 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Elizabethtown           44.22N  73.60W
07/10/2024                   Essex              NY   Trained Spotter

            Trees down along side of road near intersection of Back
            Rd and Wood Hill Highway.

&&

Event Number BTV2402582

NEILES

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Burlington VT
533 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 E Monkton Ridge       44.26N  73.10W
07/10/2024                   Addison            VT   Public

            Tree down on States Prison Hollow Rd

&&

Event Number BTV2402583

NEILES

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Burlington VT
541 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

VTZ003-006>008-102245-
Caledonia VT-Washington VT-Orleans VT-Lamoille VT-
541 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN LAMOILLE...CENTRAL
CALEDONIA...SOUTHERN ORLEANS AND NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES
THROUGH 645 PM EDT...

At 541 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Worcester, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
St. Johnsbury, Lyndon, Montpelier, Calais, Waterford, Stannard,
Stowe, Hardwick, East Montpelier, Marshfield Village, Greensboro
Bend, Worcester, Middlesex, Marshfield, Cabot Village, Lower
Waterford, Lyndonville Village, Woodbury, Cabot, and Wheelock.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 89 between mile markers 53 and 60.
 Interstate 91 between mile markers 123 and 147.
 Interstate 93 between mile markers 3 and 4, and between mile markers
6 and 11.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for central,
northeastern and northwestern Vermont.

&&

LAT...LON 4435 7192 4434 7193 4434 7198 4433 7199
      4423 7268 4448 7276 4465 7201 4435 7190
TIME...MOT...LOC 2141Z 257DEG 23KT 4437 7260

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Kremer

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