Alert archive / New York / Flash Flood Warnings in 2024

Flash Flood Warning 2, NWS Burlington, VT

July 10, 2024Essex County, Franklin County, New York

NWS Burlington, VT issued this flash flood warning at Jul 10, 2024, 3:50 PM EDT for Essex County, Franklin County, New York. It was in force for 15 hr. 4 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Jul 10, 2024, 3:50 PM EDT (19:50 UTC)
Expired
Jul 11, 2024, 6:54 AM EDT
In force
15 hr
Issued by
NWS Burlington, VT
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
None

Counties Essex County, NY, Franklin County, NY

The radar

The Burlington radar (KCXX), 92 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:51 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Jul 10, 9:15 PM EDTFLASH FLOOD1 W Elizabethtown, NY9N closed both directions due to flooding between US 9 in Elizabethtown and US 9 at Old Military Road.
Jul 10, 11:09 PM EDTFLASH FLOOD2 Ese Keene, NY9N closed between Keene and Elizabethtown.
Jul 10, 11:36 PM EDTFLASH FLOODKeene Valley, NYRt 73 closed at Johns Brook.
Jul 11, 12:32 AM EDTFLASH FLOOD4 N North Hudson, NYUS 9 closed due to flooding between Duntley Road and Tracy Road.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 4 storm reports to this flash flood warning; the first came 325 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Albany, NY (KALY), launched 12:00Z, 7.8 hours before the alert went out and 150 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Albany, NY at 12:00Z on 2024-07-10Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 565 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Albany, NY at 12:00Z on 2024-07-10The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 77 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
565 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-65 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
986 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
41 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
77 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
157 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.1
Supercell composite
1.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

229 
WGUS51 KBTV 101950
FFWBTV
NYC031-033-110145-
/O.NEW.KBTV.FF.W.0002.240710T1950Z-240711T0145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Burlington VT
350 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

The National Weather Service in Burlington has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Essex County in northern New York...
  South Central Franklin County in northern New York...

* Until 945 PM EDT.

* At 350 PM EDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated 
  thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 
  1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen. The expected rainfall rate is 
  0.5 to 1.5 inches in 1 hour. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 
  inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing 
  or expected to begin shortly.

  HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

  SOURCE...Radar and automated gauges.

  IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban
           areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as
           other poor drainage and low-lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Lake Placid, Saranac Lake, Wilmington, Elizabethtown, Keene, 
  Minerva, Newcomb, Mount Marcy, Keene Valley, Schroon Lake, Jay In 
  Essex County, North Elba, North Hudson, Mount Van Hoevenberg, 
  Tahawus, Mount Van Hoevenburg Recreation Area, St. Huberts, 
  Underwood, Schroon Falls and Ray Brook.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law 
enforcement and request they pass this information to the National 
Weather Service when you can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 4437 7411 4444 7360 4380 7353 4374 7406
      4380 7405 4383 7415 4381 7421 4393 7434
      4397 7426 4412 7428 4410 7453

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR AND GAUGE INDICATED
EXPECTED RAINFALL RATE...0.5-1.5 INCHES IN 1 HOUR

$$
6 follow-up statements
591 
WGUS71 KBTV 102259
FFSBTV

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Burlington VT
659 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

NYC031-033-110145-
/O.CON.KBTV.FF.W.0002.000000T0000Z-240711T0145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Essex NY-Franklin NY-
659 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM EDT THIS 
EVENING FOR ESSEX AND SOUTH CENTRAL FRANKLIN COUNTIES...

At 659 PM EDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated 
thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 
1.5 and 2.5 inches of rain have fallen. The expected rainfall rate 
is 0.5 to 1 inch in 1 hour. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 
inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or 
expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar and automated gauges.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Lake Placid, Saranac Lake, Wilmington, Elizabethtown, Keene, 
  Minerva, Newcomb, Mount Marcy, Keene Valley, Schroon Lake, Jay In 
  Essex County, North Elba, North Hudson, Mount Van Hoevenberg, 
  Tahawus, Mount Van Hoevenburg Recreation Area, St. Huberts, 
  Underwood, Schroon Falls and Ray Brook.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law 
enforcement and request they pass this information to the National 
Weather Service when you can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 4437 7411 4444 7360 4380 7353 4374 7406
      4380 7405 4383 7415 4381 7421 4393 7434
      4397 7426 4412 7428 4410 7453

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR AND GAUGE INDICATED
EXPECTED RAINFALL RATE...0.5-1 INCH IN 1 HOUR

$$
924 
WGUS71 KBTV 110119
FFSBTV

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Burlington VT
919 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

NYC031-033-110145-
/O.CON.KBTV.FF.W.0002.000000T0000Z-240711T0145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Essex NY-Franklin NY-
919 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 PM EDT THIS 
EVENING FOR ESSEX AND SOUTH CENTRAL FRANKLIN COUNTIES...

At 919 PM EDT, Emergency management reported thunderstorms producing 
heavy rain across the warned area. Between 2 and 4 inches of rain 
have fallen. The expected rainfall rate is 0.5 to 1 inch in 1 hour. 
Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible in the 
warned area. Flash flooding is already occurring.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Emergency management reported route 9N and US 9 at Old
         Military Road in Elizabeth is closed due to flooding.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Lake Placid, Saranac Lake, Wilmington, Elizabethtown, Keene, 
  Minerva, Newcomb, Mount Marcy, Keene Valley, Schroon Lake, Jay In 
  Essex County, North Elba, North Hudson, Mount Van Hoevenberg, 
  Tahawus, Mount Van Hoevenburg Recreation Area, St. Huberts, 
  Underwood, Schroon Falls and Ray Brook.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law 
enforcement and request they pass this information to the National 
Weather Service when you can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 4437 7411 4444 7360 4380 7353 4374 7406
      4380 7405 4383 7415 4381 7421 4393 7434
      4397 7426 4412 7428 4410 7453

FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED
EXPECTED RAINFALL RATE...0.5-1 INCH IN 1 HOUR

$$

Taber
416 
WGUS51 KBTV 110136
FFWBTV
NYC031-033-110445-
/O.EXT.KBTV.FF.W.0002.000000T0000Z-240711T0445Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Burlington VT
936 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

The National Weather Service in Burlington has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Essex County in northern New York...
  South Central Franklin County in northern New York...

* Until 1245 AM EDT.

* At 936 PM EDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated 
  thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 
  2 and 5 inches of rain have fallen. The expected rainfall rate is 
  0.25 to 0.75 inches in 1 hour. Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 
  to 1.5 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is 
  already occurring.

  HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

  SOURCE...Radar and automated gauges.

  IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban
           areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as
           other poor drainage and low-lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Lake Placid, Saranac Lake, Wilmington, Elizabethtown, Keene, 
  Minerva, Newcomb, Mount Marcy, Keene Valley, Schroon Lake, Jay In 
  Essex County, North Elba, North Hudson, Mount Van Hoevenberg, 
  Tahawus, Mount Van Hoevenburg Recreation Area, St. Huberts, 
  Underwood, Schroon Falls and Ray Brook.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law 
enforcement and request they pass this information to the National 
Weather Service when you can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 4437 7411 4444 7360 4380 7353 4374 7406
      4380 7405 4383 7415 4381 7421 4393 7434
      4397 7426 4412 7428 4410 7453

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR AND GAUGE INDICATED
EXPECTED RAINFALL RATE...0.25-0.75 INCHES IN 1 HOUR

$$
477 
WGUS51 KBTV 110339
FFWBTV
NYC031-033-110745-
/O.EXT.KBTV.FF.W.0002.000000T0000Z-240711T0745Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1139 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

The National Weather Service in Burlington has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Essex County in northern New York...
  South Central Franklin County in northern New York...

* Until 345 AM EDT.

* At 1139 PM EDT, emergency management reported thunderstorms 
  producing heavy rain across the warned area. Between 2 and 6 
  inches of rain have fallen. The expected rainfall rate is 0.25 to 
  0.75 inches in 1 hour. Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1 
  inch are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is already 
  occurring.

  HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms
           producing flash flooding.

  SOURCE...Emergency management reported a state of emergency due
           to flash flooding in Essex County, New York due to
           numerous roads closed and washed out.

  IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
           urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Lake Placid, Saranac Lake, Wilmington, Elizabethtown, Keene, 
  Minerva, Newcomb, Mount Marcy, Keene Valley, Schroon Lake, Jay In 
  Essex County, North Elba, North Hudson, Mount Van Hoevenberg, 
  Tahawus, Mount Van Hoevenburg Recreation Area, St. Huberts, 
  Underwood, Schroon Falls and Ray Brook.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law 
enforcement and request they pass this information to the National 
Weather Service when you can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 4437 7411 4444 7360 4380 7353 4374 7406
      4380 7405 4383 7415 4381 7421 4393 7434
      4397 7426 4412 7428 4410 7453

FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
EXPECTED RAINFALL RATE...0.25-0.75 INCHES IN 1 HOUR

$$
146 
WGUS51 KBTV 110738
FFWBTV
NYC031-033-111345-
/O.EXT.KBTV.FF.W.0002.000000T0000Z-240711T1345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Burlington VT
338 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

The National Weather Service in Burlington has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Essex County in northern New York...
  South Central Franklin County in northern New York...

* Until 945 AM EDT Thursday.

* At 338 AM EDT, Emergency management and Department of Highways 
  reports significant flash flooding continues across portions of 
  the warned area. Between 2 and 6 inches of rain have fallen. 
  Flooding impacts will continue, but little to no additional 
  rainfall is expected.

  HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding.

  SOURCE...Emergency management and Department of Highways
           reported.

  IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
           urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

* Some locations that are experiencing flash flooding include...
  Westport, Essex and Elizabethtown.

A State of Emergency is currently in effect for Essex County, New 
York.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law 
enforcement and request they pass this information to the National 
Weather Service when you can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 4437 7411 4444 7360 4380 7353 4374 7406
      4380 7405 4383 7415 4381 7421 4393 7434
      4397 7426 4412 7428 4410 7453

FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

JMG
327 
WGUS71 KBTV 111054
FFSBTV

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Burlington VT
654 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

NYC031-033-111104-
/O.CAN.KBTV.FF.W.0002.000000T0000Z-240711T1345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Essex NY-Franklin NY-
654 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR ESSEX AND SOUTH CENTRAL FRANKLIN COUNTIES 
HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A FLOOD WARNING...

&&

LAT...LON 4437 7411 4444 7360 4380 7353 4374 7406
      4380 7405 4383 7415 4381 7421 4393 7434
      4397 7426 4412 7428 4410 7453

$$

JMG

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Burlington, VT wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jul 10, 3:20 PM EDT, 30 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 10, 3:20 PM EDT, 30 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
320 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and storms in New York will spread east into Vermont,
into the overnight hours. Very heavy rain and strong storms are
possible. Scattered to numerous instances of flash flooding
will be possible due to locally heavy rainfall rates.
Precipitation will become isolated to scattered tomorrow, with a
general drying trend. Temperatures will remain warm and humid.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 308 PM EDT Wednesday...It has been an interesting day to be
sure. Although warm air made northward progress with partial
clearing to boot, cool, stable air has made its way back down
with some in-situ drainage flow as precipitation has been
ongoing across the northern tier with the jet stream
intensifying to our north. But with the tropical airmass, we
seen some impressive convective development on the south side of
the boundary, particularly upstream in NWS Buffalo's region.
Although storms have generally decayed in our region, we should
see activity ramp up as the surface low of Beryl's remnants
strengthens low level flow and sends warm air back north. The
warm, moist air that shifted north earlier necessitated a Heat
Advisory, and the better instability and upstream observations
regarding thunderstorm intensity has brought us to the areawide
Tornado Watch. Parts of the St. Lawrence Valley are already
approaching two inches of rainfall since this morning, and this
activity will generally slide east into Vermont. Although the
nature of convection tends to be more spotty than a widespread
system, these torrential downpours mean that the Flood Watch is
still good.

What has changed is that rainfall amounts have decreased in the
forecast across Rutland/Windsor County. The area will remain outside
the better axis of precipitation due to the warm front being further
north. However, given that any convection could easily drop high
rainfall amounts, the Flood Watch will remain down south. Late this
evening into tonight, one last slug of moisture will advect north
along a developing triple point. This will mainly be focused across
Vermont. This should then depart predawn into Thursday. With the
upper trough, some pop up convection is possible, but unlike to
produce anything significant. Conditions remaining warm in Vermont.
We may need to watch dewpoints again for Heat Advisories in the
lower Connecticut River Valley with temperatures in the upper 80s,
but we'll see. It will get slightly less humid, but still likely in
the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 308 PM EDT Wednesday...Friday will be a good day for recovery
from any flooding experienced Wednesday and Thursday. Skies will
gradually clear throughout the day as the remnants of Beryl get a
little more distant from our CWA. We could see some light scattered
showers in Saint Lawrence county as well as far northern Vermont,
but measurable precipitation will be isolated. Heat values will
remain above normal for most of the area primarily being driven by
consistently high surface moisture.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 308 PM EDT Wednesday...High pressure to our east will keep us
dry through the weekend. A warming trend will continue through
Sunday, with temperatures reaching into the low 90s in the Champlain
and Connecticut river valleys. Early next week we are looking at a
low pressure system transversing along the international border,
bringing a threat of thunderstorms. We will continue to refine the
timing and impacts as the models converge.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 18Z Thursday...The first area of showers and storms is
lifting north of the international border. South of KMSS and
west of KSLK, severe thunderstorms are developing. So over the
Across northern New York, these will continue for the next 4 to
6 hours before shifting into Vermont about 20z to 02z. Areas of
locally heavy rain could produce IFR cigs, vsbys. A broader
batch of rain will develop near KPBG and Vermont terminals
between 02z and 06z. Winds for the next 12 hours will be hard to
track with a tendency towards northeast flow at KPBG, KBTV, and
KMSS along the warm front, but with thunderstorms and
approaching low pressure, there may be some variability.
Thunderstorms may also produce gusty winds, and have notated
VRB10G20kts or close to that in TEMPOs for many terminals. Then
heavy rain and thunderstorms will begin to diminish in
coverage beyond 06z. However, hazy conditions in tropical
moisture may keep visibilities between 4-6SM and lower stratus
down to 300 to 1200 ft agl appear likely overnight. After 12z,
mainly VCSH conditions are expected with south to southwest flow
at 5 to 10 knots, perhaps a few gusts to 15 knots. Several
terminals may briefly experience LLWS conditions, but it appears
to brief to highlight explicitly. But any terminal could
experience rough conditions with winds increasing to 30-35 knots
around 2000 ft agl.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance
TSRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 400 AM EDT Wednesday...Heavy rain is occurring, the
overall certainty of higher rainfall rates remains 40-70
percent chance in exceeding flash flood guidance, resulting in
a Moderate Risk Outlook (Level 3 of 4) in the Excessive Rainfall
Outlook for most of our forecast area. Although the nature of
precipitation has been more localized within convection, the
torrential rainfall rates has this looking solid still.

Antecedent wet conditions, in addition to the locally heavy
rain that has occurred in central Vermont is resulting in a
greater vulnerability to flash flooding. The strongest
thunderstorms have been producing rainfall rates of the
potential for rainfall of 1 to 2 inches in a 3 hour time span.

Unlike last year's flood event, this will not be a long duration
scenario. Additionally, parts of the Adirondacks are at a
greater risk for flash flooding than last year's July event.
The heaviest rainfall is likely to fall within a 9 to 15 hour
window today into tonight. With this, widespread rainfall
totals are forecast to be 2 to 3 inches and this would likely
involve an embedded swath where values of 3 to 5 inches. Within
that 3 to 5 inch swath, there could be a few spots that approach
6 inches. Where values in excess of 3 inches occur, additional
flooding across low lying plains and roads in addition to flash
flood concerns. Widespread washouts and water entering homes and
businesses could also take place at the upper bounds.

On Thursday, runoff from the rain will cause sharp river rises.
At this time, the East Branch of the Ausable at Ausable Forks
is forecast at minor flood stage about Thursday morning, which
can have impacts in Keene, New York and sections of road near
Route 9N in and around Marcy Field. The Winooski at Waterbury is
now forecast to reach minor flood stage as well. This typically
causes low lying field flooding around Waterbury and Richmond.
The Mad River at Moretown is also forecast to rise towards minor
flood stage crest just below moderate stage. This usually caused
field flooding in Waitsfield and Moretown with flooding on local
roads and possible Route 100B. We'll also maintain a close eye
on the Winooski at Essex, the Lamoille at Johnson, and the
Missisquoi at North Troy if heavier rain makes its way north.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

At this time, it appears that redevelopment of convection could
be limited Thursday afternoon, but we will continue to monitor
the position of dry, stable air that could limit this potential.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for VTZ001>011-016>021.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VTZ009-011-021.
NY...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for NYZ026>031-034-035-
     087.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes
SHORT TERM...Langbauer
LONG TERM...Langbauer
AVIATION...Haynes
HYDROLOGY...Team BTV
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 10, 1:18 PM EDT, 2 hours 32 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Burlington VT
118 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>008-010-016>020-101830-
Northern St. Lawrence-Northern Franklin-Eastern Clinton-
Southeastern St. Lawrence-Southern Franklin-Western Clinton-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Southwestern St. Lawrence-Grand Isle-
Western Franklin-Orleans-Essex-Western Chittenden-Lamoille-Caledonia-
Washington-Orange-Eastern Franklin-Eastern Chittenden-
Eastern Addison-Eastern Rutland-Western Windsor-
118 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...
...TORNADO WATCH 517 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern New York, central
Vermont, northeast Vermont, northwest Vermont and southern Vermont.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Tornado Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

VTZ009-011-021-101830-
Western Addison-Western Rutland-Eastern Windsor-
118 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...
...TORNADO WATCH 517 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Vermont and southern
Vermont.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Tornado Watch.
   Heat Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 10, 11:18 AM EDT, 4 hours 32 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1118 AM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

NYZ026-029-030-087-101615-
Northern St. Lawrence NY-Southeastern St. Lawrence NY-
Southern Franklin NY-Southwestern St. Lawrence NY-
1118 AM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN FRANKLIN AND ST.
LAWRENCE COUNTIES THROUGH 1215 PM EDT...

At 1118 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Gouverneur, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Potsdam, Gouverneur, Canton, Oswegatchie, De Kalb, Fowler, Colton,
Morley, Degrasse, Richville, Cranberry Lake, Rensselaer Falls,
Hermon, Horseshoe Lake, Star Lake, Norwood, Madrid, Pierrepont,
Russell, and Fine.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4480 7504 4410 7448 4406 7508 4437 7580
TIME...MOT...LOC 1518Z 238DEG 35KT 4426 7554

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Kremer
Local storm report, Jul 10, 2:26 PM EDT, 1 hour 24 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Burlington VT
226 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0118 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Edwards                 44.32N  75.25W
07/10/2024                   St. Lawrence       NY   911 Call Center

            Downed Tree

&&

Event Number BTV2402580

Myskowski
Special weather statement, Jul 10, 2:54 PM EDT, 56 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Burlington VT
254 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

NYZ029-030-034-102000-
Southeastern St. Lawrence NY-Southern Franklin NY-Western Essex NY-
254 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL FRANKLIN...
SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE AND SOUTHWESTERN ESSEX COUNTIES THROUGH 400
PM EDT...

At 254 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Lake Eaton Campground, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Lake Placid, Newcomb, Mount Marcy, North Elba, Mount Van Hoevenberg,
Tahawus, and Mount Van Hoevenburg Recreation Area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for northern New
York.

&&

LAT...LON 4393 7434 4397 7426 4412 7428 4409 7460
      4412 7461 4431 7389 4392 7379 4389 7430
TIME...MOT...LOC 1854Z 256DEG 23KT 4401 7449

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Kremer

The office that day

Everything else NWS Burlington, VT issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 10, 11:18 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementBTVSt. Lawrence57 min
Jul 10, 1:11 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBTVSt. Lawrence49 min
Jul 10, 2:54 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementBTVEssex66 min
Jul 10, 3:16 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBTVEssex, Franklin59 min
Jul 10, 3:27 PM EDTTornado WarningBTVEssex, Franklin33 min
Jul 10, 3:59 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBTVEssex34 min
Jul 10, 4:31 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBTVEssex23 min
Jul 10, 4:39 PM EDTAreal Flood WarningBTVClinton, Essex3 hr
Jul 10, 4:46 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBTVEssex59 min
Jul 10, 5:25 PM EDTAreal Flood WarningBTVEssex, Franklin, St. Lawrence6 hr
Jul 10, 5:38 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBTVEssex52 min
Jul 10, 5:56 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningBTVEssex13 hr
Jul 10, 6:33 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBTVEssex42 min
Jul 10, 7:31 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBTVEssex59 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in New York, 2024Every flash flood warning in 2024

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.