River Flood Warning 14, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
727 AM EST Wed Jan 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The worst of the rain and wind will be early this morning, then
taper off after daybreak. Dry weather follows for Thursday and
Friday, before another significant storm will impact the region
Friday night into Saturday bringing another round of strong
winds and heavy rain. Gusty winds continue behind this system
into Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Made some changes to headlines this morning. Converted the High
Wind Warning along the east coast of MA to a Wind Advisory.
Dropped the Wind Advisory farther inland per latest
observations.

Otherwise, just minor tweaks to rainfall timing and temperatures
to reflect observed trends.

3:30 AM Update...

Already beginning to see improvements across eastern NY and
western areas of southern New England, as a fine line marches
from west to east. Behind this line of heavier downpours and
strong winds, we are seeing a significant decrease in wind
gusts. High- res guidance would suggest the fine line could exit
over the eastern waters by 10z! And behind the fine line area of
light to moderate rainfall, though the cutoff has reached the
I-91 corridor as of 3 AM. Expecting this back edge will move off
shore roughly between 6am-7am.

Rainfall based off KBOX is estimated between 1.5 and 3.0 inches,
and has led to urban and poor drainage flooding as well as sharp
rises on creeks and streams. As the rain ends this morning, our
attention moves to the larger rivers, while most are expected to
crest at minor flood stage, there are a few that will go into
moderate/major flood stage into Thursday. Additional details on
specific rivers can be found under the river forecast on our
webpage.

Hazards still in effect; Flood Watch, Wind Advisory has been
trimmed back to northern RI and northeast MA. The High Wind
Warning continues without any changes. Do expect many of these
headlines will be taken down by the 7AM update. Those interested
in the coastal flooding, please see the coastal flood section
at the bottom of this discussion.

This afternoon: Still a bit breezy this afternoon, winds are WSW
15 to 25 MPH with gusts of 30 to 40 MPH. There could be an
isolated gust that reaches advisory criteria, but confidence
remains low that it occurs. Never the less, saturated grounds
and strong winds could comprise some trees. Temperatures
continue to fall through the 40s after reaching a high in the
low 50s early this morning. While the rest of the day is
trending dry, the cyclonic flow and remaining low level moisture
could aid in a few spot shower or flurry across the higher
terrain of NW MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
3:30 AM Update...

Tonight: A quiet night ahead for southern New England, the once
robust storm reaches the entrance of the Saint Lawrence River
this evening, while our region experiences pressure rises. The
entire northeast is under cyclonic flow due to the closed mid-
level low centered over eastern Quebec. WSW winds overnight,
with gusts between 15-25 MPH. One forecast struggle, how much
clearing will occur. High-res guidance is hammering that we
clear out, but the synoptic models continue to show some low-
level moisture, that could provide some cloud cover overnight.
Did trend the forecast more cloudy across the interior and fewer
clouds across southeast MA and RI. Lows in the upper 20s and
lower 30s.

Thursday: Expecting a quiet day ahead, though a shortwave does
pass through southern New England. As this energy moves across
southern New England there is little available moisture, PWATs
are generally less than 1/3rd of an inch. Outside of added mid-
level cloud cover, it is possible to squeeze a few flurries out
across the high terrain of northwest MA during the late morning
and early afternoon. Steady WSW wind 10-15 MPH. Afternoon
highs, upper 30s and lower 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Highlights:

* Quiet and dry into Friday with above normal temperatures

* Another strong storm system with a multitude of impacts
  expected Friday Night into Saturday

* Winds remain strong Sunday, with near to slightly below normal
  temperatures

* Not as windy early next week. Lower risk for more precipitation,
  especially Tuesday.

Much of this portion of the forecast will feature a broad mid
level trough over the CONUS. Have moderate confidence in the
forecast details through Saturday, which then falls to low
confidence Sunday into Tuesday as the timing differences of
certain features in the guidance suite become too large.

At the surface, expecting yet another low pressure to move from
the Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes Friday into Saturday. This
will leave southern New England on the warmer side of this
system, setting the stage for more rainfall and possibly some
gusty winds. While there are some similarities with the current
storm Wednesday, the standardized anomalies are just a little
smaller. Thus, thinking our region should see slightly lower
rainfall and winds. That may not mean much if flooding persists
into this weekend, as any additional rainfall would only
exacerbate flooding.

There does appear to be a window for some snow at the onset
across portions of NW MA and the northern Worcester Hills. This
should transition over to rainfall. Will need a better handle
on temperatures to pinpoint this risk with confidence.

Latest National Blend of Models probabilistic guidance is not as
robust with winds across much of our region. Will still need to
consider some wind headlines towards the coast, especially
across the Cape and islands. Some risk also for the Worcester
Hills and towards the Berkshires (40-60%). Will monitor this
aspect closely over the coming days.

This storm should depart into southeast Canada by Sunday
morning. However, gusty winds should linger through much of the
day. Southern New England looks to remain in between a pair of
high pressures: one over the North Atlantic, and the other
towards the Rockies. Currently thinking Monday is likely drier
than Tuesday. Most of the latest guidance suite has a low
pressure along the SE coast of the USA. This does not look to be
overly potent, but enough to bring a risk for some showers. Have
little confidence in the timing details of this low pressure at
this time, as the spread in the mid level flow pattern is
rather large.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today... High confidence in overall trends. Moderate confidence
in timing. Conditions improve quickly, west to east, from
LIFR/IFR to MVFR/VFR, between 12Z and 15Z. Breezy SW wind 10-20
kts with gust to 30 kts after about 15Z.

Tonight... High confidence. VFR, some low end VFR to MVFR
possible across NW MA, decreasing winds out of the SW 10-15 kts.

Thursday... High confidence. VFR, and isolated MVFR CIGS across
high terrain of northern MA. SW wind 10-15 kts.

KBOS TAF...High confidence in trends. Moderate confidence in
timing.

KBDL TAF...High confidence in trends. Moderate confidence in
timing.

Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...

Thursday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Friday: VFR.

Friday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Strong winds with
gusts up to 50 kt. RA, chance FZRA, isolated TSRA.

Saturday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Strong winds with gusts
up to 50 kt. RA, isolated TSRA.

Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Strong
winds with gusts up to 45 kt.

Sunday: VFR. Strong winds with gusts up to 40 kt.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Overall high confidence through Wed.

Converted Storm Warnings to Gale Warnings for all but the
ocean-exposed waters of eastern MA. Currently thinking even
those waters could be converted to Gale Warnings by mid morning.

Previous Discussion...

Storm Warnings remain in effect for all waters through early
this morning, then will need to be converted to gales. Winds
early this morning are gusting to 50-55 kt, these winds diminish
after daybreak as the low level jet moves to the east. Winds
shift to SW Wed with 30-40 kt gusts. Seas 20-25 ft over outer
southern waters slowly lower throughout the late afternoon into
Thursday, which should provide dry weather.

Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...

Thursday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
local gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Friday Night: Low risk for storm force winds with gusts up to
55 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain, slight chance of
thunderstorms.

Saturday: Low risk for storm force winds with gusts up to
55 kt. Rough seas up to 16 ft. Rain, isolated thunderstorms.

Saturday Night: gale force winds with gusts up to 45 kt. Rough
seas up to 16 ft.

Sunday: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
40 kt. Rough seas up to 14 ft.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
We are expecting minor to moderate coastal flooding during high
tide this morning. Impressive 24-hour pressure falls exceeding
40 mb, combined with strong S/SE winds will result in a peak
surge of 2- 3 ft along the east coast of MA and 3-4 ft along the
south coast. However, in Narragansett Bay, have already seen a
4-5 ft surge. The good news so far is that this surge occurred
during the early morning low tide, mitigating the coastal flood
impacts.

Still thinking widespread minor coastal flooding, with areas of
moderate coastal flooding along the south coast of RI and MA. No
changes to ongoing coastal flood headlines this morning.

We also remain concerned with ocean-exposed coastline, as very high
seas just offshore will make the flood risk worst than the tides
would otherwise suggest. Beach erosion is also a concern.

While winds will be shifting to SW toward high tide on the east
coast of MA, wave energy will be directed toward the coast for
several hours preceding the high tide.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Flood Watch until 1 PM EST this afternoon for CTZ002>004.
MA...Flood Watch until 1 PM EST this afternoon for MAZ002>021-026.
     Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for MAZ007-017>024.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EST today for MAZ007-015-016-
     019-022-024.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for MAZ020.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for MAZ021.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for MAZ023.
RI...Flood Watch until 1 PM EST this afternoon for RIZ001>007.
     Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for RIZ004>008.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for RIZ002-
     004>007.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ230.
     Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ231-232.
     Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Thursday for ANZ233>235-237-255-
     256.
     Gale Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ236.
     Storm Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ250-251-254.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Belk/Dooley
NEAR TERM...Belk/Dooley
SHORT TERM...Dooley
LONG TERM...Belk
AVIATION...Belk/Dooley
MARINE...Belk/Dooley
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...Belk/KJC/JWD

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1040 AM EST Wed Jan 10 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1050 PM     Flood            Everett                 42.41N 71.05W
01/09/2024                   Middlesex          MA   Law Enforcement

            Air Force Road Closed due to flooding per
            Law Enforcement. Reported by Amateur Radio.

0100 AM     Flood            Central Falls           41.89N 71.39W
01/10/2024                   Providence         RI   Law Enforcement

            Section of Higginson Avenue closed due to
            flooding per Law Enforcement. Relayed by
            Amateur Radio.

0102 AM     Flood            2 W Warwick             41.70N 71.46W
01/10/2024                   Kent               RI   Law Enforcement

            Route 2 underpass with I-95 is flooded and
            impassable per Law Enforcement. Reported by
            Amateur Radio.

0210 AM     Flood            2 WNW Johnston          41.82N 71.50W
01/10/2024                   Providence         RI   Law Enforcement

            Exit Off Ramps of Route 6 East and Route 6
            West to Atwood Avenue closed due to flooding
            per Law Enforcement. Reported by Amateur
            Radio.

0212 AM     Flood            4 SSE Pomfret           41.84N 71.95W
01/10/2024                   Windham            CT   Public

            Report from mPING: River/Creek overflowing;
            Cropland/Yard/Basement Flooding.

0226 AM     Flood            2 ESE Northampton       42.32N 72.63W
01/10/2024                   Hampshire          MA   Law Enforcement

            Elm Street between Nutting Avenue and Milton
            Street closed due to flooding per Law
            Enforcement. Reported by Amateur Radio.

0230 AM     Flood            1 SE North Scituate     42.20N 70.75W
01/10/2024                   Plymouth           MA   Law Enforcement

            Hollett Street at Country Way flooded and
            impassable per Law Enforcement. Reported by
            Amateur Radio.

0317 AM     Flood            Worcester               42.27N 71.81W
01/10/2024                   Worcester          MA   Law Enforcement

            Route 20 closed in both directions due to
            flooding at Grafton St (Route 122).

0335 AM     Flood            2 W Warwick             41.70N 71.46W
01/10/2024                   Kent               RI   Law Enforcement

            Bellows Street at Pioneer Avenue closed due
            to flooding per Law Enforcement. Reported by
            Amateur Radio.

0340 AM     Flood            1 WSW Malden            42.43N 71.07W
01/10/2024                   Middlesex          MA   Law Enforcement

            In the area of 700 Broadway - flooded and
            impassable per Law Enforcement. Reported by
            Amateur Radio.

0340 AM     Flood            1 NW Sturbridge         42.11N 72.08W
01/10/2024                   Worcester          MA   Law Enforcement

            Area of 500 Main Street is flooded from a
            river out of its banks behind businesses at
            that location per Law Enforcement. Reported
            by Amateur Radio.

0355 AM     Flood            Providence              41.82N 71.42W
01/10/2024                   Providence         RI   Broadcast Media

            Significant flooding on Charles St. Several
            cars stranded.

0410 AM     Flood            3 WSW New Bedford       41.64N 70.98W
01/10/2024                   Bristol            MA   Law Enforcement

            Eastbound lane in the area of 671 State Road
            is flooded and impassable per Law
            Enforcement. Reported by Amateur Radio.

0420 AM     Flood            North Attleboro         41.98N 71.33W
01/10/2024                   Bristol            MA   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Significant flooding on Paine Rd. Relayed by
            Amateur Radio.

0455 AM     Flood            1 SSE North Providence  41.84N 71.45W
01/10/2024                   Providence         RI   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Woonasquatucket River flooding Atwells Ave
            and Valley St.

0655 AM     Flood            2 W Warwick             41.70N 71.46W
01/10/2024                   Kent               RI   Law Enforcement

            Hunt River out of its banks closing Route 1
            Post Road Southbound per Law Enforcement.
            Reported by Amateur Radio.

0710 AM     Flood            1 ENE Charlestown       41.39N 71.62W
01/10/2024                   Washington         RI   Amateur Radio

            Charlestown Pond out of its banks flooding
            Arches Road. Reported by Amateur Radio.

0717 AM     Flood            1 S Westfield           42.12N 72.75W
01/10/2024                   Hampden            MA   Amateur Radio

            Southampton Road School closed due to
            flooding inside the building. Reported by
            Amateur Radio.

0726 AM     Flood            2 NW Bliss Corner       41.63N 70.97W
01/10/2024                   Bristol            MA   Law Enforcement

            in the area of 50 Horseneck Road flooded and
            closed per Law Enforcement. Relayed by
            Amateur Radio.

0750 AM     Flood            1 W Richmond            41.50N 71.66W
01/10/2024                   Washington         RI   Amateur Radio

            Beaver River Out of its banks flooding Tug
            Hollow Road at New London Turnpike with one
            foot of water. Beaver river out of its banks
            flooding and closing Old Mountain Road.
            Reported by Amateur Radio.

0820 AM     Flood            1 W Richmond            41.50N 71.66W
01/10/2024                   Washington         RI   Amateur Radio

            Hillsdale Road by James Trail closed due to
            flooding from the Beaver River Reported by
            Amateur Radio.

0834 AM     Flood            Cumberland              41.95N 71.40W
01/10/2024                   Providence         RI   Trained Spotter

            West Sneech Brook out of its banks causing a
            section of Westwood Drive to be washed out
            due to flooding. Reported by Trained
            Spotter.

0900 AM     Flood            3 ENE Cranston          41.78N 71.44W
01/10/2024                   Providence         RI   Trained Spotter

            Phenix Avenue car stuck in street flooding
            of at least 1 foot in depth, Meshianticut
            Lake out of its banks causing minor flooding
            to the roadway. Reported by Trained Spotter.

0909 AM     Flood            1 NW Andover            41.74N 72.38W
01/10/2024                   Tolland            CT   Amateur Radio

            Hop River out of its banks flooding Bunker
            Hill Road and parker bridge road and long
            hill road Relayed by Amateur Radio.

&&