River Flood Warning 11, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
727 AM EST Wed Jan 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The worst of the rain and wind will be early this morning, then
taper off after daybreak. Dry weather follows for Thursday and
Friday, before another significant storm will impact the region
Friday night into Saturday bringing another round of strong
winds and heavy rain. Gusty winds continue behind this system
into Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Made some changes to headlines this morning. Converted the High
Wind Warning along the east coast of MA to a Wind Advisory.
Dropped the Wind Advisory farther inland per latest
observations.

Otherwise, just minor tweaks to rainfall timing and temperatures
to reflect observed trends.

3:30 AM Update...

Already beginning to see improvements across eastern NY and
western areas of southern New England, as a fine line marches
from west to east. Behind this line of heavier downpours and
strong winds, we are seeing a significant decrease in wind
gusts. High- res guidance would suggest the fine line could exit
over the eastern waters by 10z! And behind the fine line area of
light to moderate rainfall, though the cutoff has reached the
I-91 corridor as of 3 AM. Expecting this back edge will move off
shore roughly between 6am-7am.

Rainfall based off KBOX is estimated between 1.5 and 3.0 inches,
and has led to urban and poor drainage flooding as well as sharp
rises on creeks and streams. As the rain ends this morning, our
attention moves to the larger rivers, while most are expected to
crest at minor flood stage, there are a few that will go into
moderate/major flood stage into Thursday. Additional details on
specific rivers can be found under the river forecast on our
webpage.

Hazards still in effect; Flood Watch, Wind Advisory has been
trimmed back to northern RI and northeast MA. The High Wind
Warning continues without any changes. Do expect many of these
headlines will be taken down by the 7AM update. Those interested
in the coastal flooding, please see the coastal flood section
at the bottom of this discussion.

This afternoon: Still a bit breezy this afternoon, winds are WSW
15 to 25 MPH with gusts of 30 to 40 MPH. There could be an
isolated gust that reaches advisory criteria, but confidence
remains low that it occurs. Never the less, saturated grounds
and strong winds could comprise some trees. Temperatures
continue to fall through the 40s after reaching a high in the
low 50s early this morning. While the rest of the day is
trending dry, the cyclonic flow and remaining low level moisture
could aid in a few spot shower or flurry across the higher
terrain of NW MA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
3:30 AM Update...

Tonight: A quiet night ahead for southern New England, the once
robust storm reaches the entrance of the Saint Lawrence River
this evening, while our region experiences pressure rises. The
entire northeast is under cyclonic flow due to the closed mid-
level low centered over eastern Quebec. WSW winds overnight,
with gusts between 15-25 MPH. One forecast struggle, how much
clearing will occur. High-res guidance is hammering that we
clear out, but the synoptic models continue to show some low-
level moisture, that could provide some cloud cover overnight.
Did trend the forecast more cloudy across the interior and fewer
clouds across southeast MA and RI. Lows in the upper 20s and
lower 30s.

Thursday: Expecting a quiet day ahead, though a shortwave does
pass through southern New England. As this energy moves across
southern New England there is little available moisture, PWATs
are generally less than 1/3rd of an inch. Outside of added mid-
level cloud cover, it is possible to squeeze a few flurries out
across the high terrain of northwest MA during the late morning
and early afternoon. Steady WSW wind 10-15 MPH. Afternoon
highs, upper 30s and lower 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Highlights:

* Quiet and dry into Friday with above normal temperatures

* Another strong storm system with a multitude of impacts
  expected Friday Night into Saturday

* Winds remain strong Sunday, with near to slightly below normal
  temperatures

* Not as windy early next week. Lower risk for more precipitation,
  especially Tuesday.

Much of this portion of the forecast will feature a broad mid
level trough over the CONUS. Have moderate confidence in the
forecast details through Saturday, which then falls to low
confidence Sunday into Tuesday as the timing differences of
certain features in the guidance suite become too large.

At the surface, expecting yet another low pressure to move from
the Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes Friday into Saturday. This
will leave southern New England on the warmer side of this
system, setting the stage for more rainfall and possibly some
gusty winds. While there are some similarities with the current
storm Wednesday, the standardized anomalies are just a little
smaller. Thus, thinking our region should see slightly lower
rainfall and winds. That may not mean much if flooding persists
into this weekend, as any additional rainfall would only
exacerbate flooding.

There does appear to be a window for some snow at the onset
across portions of NW MA and the northern Worcester Hills. This
should transition over to rainfall. Will need a better handle
on temperatures to pinpoint this risk with confidence.

Latest National Blend of Models probabilistic guidance is not as
robust with winds across much of our region. Will still need to
consider some wind headlines towards the coast, especially
across the Cape and islands. Some risk also for the Worcester
Hills and towards the Berkshires (40-60%). Will monitor this
aspect closely over the coming days.

This storm should depart into southeast Canada by Sunday
morning. However, gusty winds should linger through much of the
day. Southern New England looks to remain in between a pair of
high pressures: one over the North Atlantic, and the other
towards the Rockies. Currently thinking Monday is likely drier
than Tuesday. Most of the latest guidance suite has a low
pressure along the SE coast of the USA. This does not look to be
overly potent, but enough to bring a risk for some showers. Have
little confidence in the timing details of this low pressure at
this time, as the spread in the mid level flow pattern is
rather large.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today... High confidence in overall trends. Moderate confidence
in timing. Conditions improve quickly, west to east, from
LIFR/IFR to MVFR/VFR, between 12Z and 15Z. Breezy SW wind 10-20
kts with gust to 30 kts after about 15Z.

Tonight... High confidence. VFR, some low end VFR to MVFR
possible across NW MA, decreasing winds out of the SW 10-15 kts.

Thursday... High confidence. VFR, and isolated MVFR CIGS across
high terrain of northern MA. SW wind 10-15 kts.

KBOS TAF...High confidence in trends. Moderate confidence in
timing.

KBDL TAF...High confidence in trends. Moderate confidence in
timing.

Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...

Thursday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Friday: VFR.

Friday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Strong winds with
gusts up to 50 kt. RA, chance FZRA, isolated TSRA.

Saturday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Strong winds with gusts
up to 50 kt. RA, isolated TSRA.

Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Strong
winds with gusts up to 45 kt.

Sunday: VFR. Strong winds with gusts up to 40 kt.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Overall high confidence through Wed.

Converted Storm Warnings to Gale Warnings for all but the
ocean-exposed waters of eastern MA. Currently thinking even
those waters could be converted to Gale Warnings by mid morning.

Previous Discussion...

Storm Warnings remain in effect for all waters through early
this morning, then will need to be converted to gales. Winds
early this morning are gusting to 50-55 kt, these winds diminish
after daybreak as the low level jet moves to the east. Winds
shift to SW Wed with 30-40 kt gusts. Seas 20-25 ft over outer
southern waters slowly lower throughout the late afternoon into
Thursday, which should provide dry weather.

Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...

Thursday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
local gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Friday Night: Low risk for storm force winds with gusts up to
55 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain, slight chance of
thunderstorms.

Saturday: Low risk for storm force winds with gusts up to
55 kt. Rough seas up to 16 ft. Rain, isolated thunderstorms.

Saturday Night: gale force winds with gusts up to 45 kt. Rough
seas up to 16 ft.

Sunday: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
40 kt. Rough seas up to 14 ft.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
We are expecting minor to moderate coastal flooding during high
tide this morning. Impressive 24-hour pressure falls exceeding
40 mb, combined with strong S/SE winds will result in a peak
surge of 2- 3 ft along the east coast of MA and 3-4 ft along the
south coast. However, in Narragansett Bay, have already seen a
4-5 ft surge. The good news so far is that this surge occurred
during the early morning low tide, mitigating the coastal flood
impacts.

Still thinking widespread minor coastal flooding, with areas of
moderate coastal flooding along the south coast of RI and MA. No
changes to ongoing coastal flood headlines this morning.

We also remain concerned with ocean-exposed coastline, as very high
seas just offshore will make the flood risk worst than the tides
would otherwise suggest. Beach erosion is also a concern.

While winds will be shifting to SW toward high tide on the east
coast of MA, wave energy will be directed toward the coast for
several hours preceding the high tide.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Flood Watch until 1 PM EST this afternoon for CTZ002>004.
MA...Flood Watch until 1 PM EST this afternoon for MAZ002>021-026.
     Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for MAZ007-017>024.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EST today for MAZ007-015-016-
     019-022-024.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for MAZ020.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for MAZ021.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for MAZ023.
RI...Flood Watch until 1 PM EST this afternoon for RIZ001>007.
     Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for RIZ004>008.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for RIZ002-
     004>007.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ230.
     Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ231-232.
     Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Thursday for ANZ233>235-237-255-
     256.
     Gale Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ236.
     Storm Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ250-251-254.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Belk/Dooley
NEAR TERM...Belk/Dooley
SHORT TERM...Dooley
LONG TERM...Belk
AVIATION...Belk/Dooley
MARINE...Belk/Dooley
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...Belk/KJC/JWD

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
335 AM EST Wed Jan 10 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0317 AM     Flood            Worcester               42.27N 71.81W
01/10/2024                   Worcester          MA   Law Enforcement

            Route 20 closed in both directions due to
            flooding at Grafton St (Route 122).

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
359 AM EST Wed Jan 10 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0317 AM     Flood            Worcester               42.27N 71.81W
01/10/2024                   Worcester          MA   Law Enforcement

            Route 20 closed in both directions due to
            flooding at Grafton St (Route 122).

0339 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg Fall River              41.71N 71.11W
01/10/2024                   Bristol            MA   Law Enforcement

            Large tree down on Route 79 northbound
            blocking right travel lane.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
430 AM EST Wed Jan 10 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 3 ESE Logan AP          42.34N 70.95W
01/10/2024  M63 MPH          ANZ230             MA   Mesonet

            Mesonet station XDER Deer Island.

0204 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 S Swampscott          42.46N 70.89W
01/10/2024  M58 MPH          ANZ230             MA   Mesonet

            Mesonet station XDRD Dread Ledge.

0207 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst Chatham AP              41.68N 70.00W
01/10/2024  M60 MPH          Barnstable         MA   ASOS

            ASOS station KCQX Chatham AP.

0238 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 3 E Wellfleet           41.93N 69.98W
01/10/2024  M64 MPH          Barnstable         MA   Mesonet

            Mesonet station XWEL Wellfleet.

0247 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 3 SSE Portsmouth        41.56N 71.22W
01/10/2024  M63 MPH          Newport            RI   Mesonet

            Mesonet station XFOG Fogland.

0248 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 2 SW Barrington         41.72N 71.34W
01/10/2024  M75 MPH          ANZ236             RI   Mesonet

            Mesonet station CPTR1 Conimicut Light.

0248 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 2 ENE Bliss Corner      41.62N 70.91W
01/10/2024  M59 MPH          ANZ234             MA   Mesonet

            Mesonet station NBGM3 3 SE New Bedford.

0310 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst Beverly AP              42.58N 70.92W
01/10/2024  M58 MPH          Essex              MA   ASOS

            ASOS station KBVY Beverly AP.

0333 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 3 SW Jamestown          41.45N 71.40W
01/10/2024  M59 MPH          Newport            RI   Mesonet

            Mesonet station XBVT Beavertail.

0335 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 WNW Newport           41.50N 71.34W
01/10/2024  M66 MPH          Newport            RI   Mesonet

            Mesonet station XROS Rose Island.

0337 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 3 SSW Prudence Island   41.56N 71.33W
01/10/2024  M70 MPH          ANZ236             RI   Mesonet

            Mesonet station XHLF Halfway Rock.

0409 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 3 SE Mattapoisett       41.64N 70.76W
01/10/2024  M58 MPH          ANZ234             MA   Mesonet

            Mesonet station XAPL Angelica Point Li.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
501 AM EST Wed Jan 10 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0339 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg 1 SE Provincetown       42.05N 70.19W
01/10/2024                   Barnstable         MA   Public

            Reported by Amateur Radio.

0355 AM     Flood            Providence              41.82N 71.42W
01/10/2024                   Providence         RI   Broadcast Media

            Significant flooding on Charles St. Several
            cars stranded.

0408 AM     Coastal Flood    New Bedford             41.66N 70.94W
01/10/2024                   Bristol            MA   Law Enforcement

            Padanaram Ave at Rogers St and part of East
            Rodney French Blvd closed due to coastal
            flooding. Relayed by Amateur Radio.

0448 AM     Coastal Flood    Dartmouth               41.57N 71.00W
01/10/2024                   Bristol            MA   Law Enforcement

            Section of Smith Neck Rd near the ocean
            covered with rocks and debris from coastal
            flooding. Relayed by Amateur Radio.

&&