Alert archive / Massachusetts / Gale Warnings in 2024
Gale Warning 19, NWS Boston/Norton, MA
NWS Boston/Norton, MA issued this gale warning at Apr 2, 2024, 3:13 AM EDT. It took effect at Apr 3, 2024, 6:00 AM EDT. It was in force for . No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Apr 2, 2024, 3:13 AM EDT (07:13 UTC)
- In effect from
- Apr 3, 2024, 6:00 AM EDT
- Expired
- Apr 2, 2024, 2:08 PM EDT
- In force
- Issued by
- NWS Boston/Norton, MA
The text
As transmitted.
856 WHUS71 KBOX 020713 MWWBOX URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 313 AM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024 ANZ251-022015- /O.CAN.KBOX.GL.A.0014.240403T1800Z-240405T0000Z/ /O.EXA.KBOX.SR.A.0005.240403T2000Z-240405T0000Z/ Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay- 313 AM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024 ...STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING... ...GALE WATCH IS CANCELLED... * WHAT...Northeast winds 35 to 45 kt with gusts up to 55 kt and seas 13 to 18 feet possible. * WHERE...Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay. * WHEN...From Wednesday afternoon through Thursday evening. * IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should prepare to remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions before conditions deteriorate. && $$ ANZ232>235-237-022015- /O.UPG.KBOX.GL.A.0014.240403T1200Z-240404T1500Z/ /O.NEW.KBOX.GL.W.0019.240403T1000Z-240404T1200Z/ Nantucket Sound-Vineyard Sound-Buzzards Bay-Rhode Island Sound- Block Island Sound- 313 AM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024 ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY... * WHAT...East winds 30 to 40 kt with gusts up to 45 kt and seas 7 to 10 feet expected. * WHERE...In Massachusetts coastal waters, Nantucket Sound, Vineyard Sound and Buzzards Bay. In Rhode Island coastal waters, Rhode Island Sound and Block Island Sound. * WHEN...From 6 AM Wednesday to 8 AM EDT Thursday. * IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions. && $$ ANZ255-256-022015- /O.UPG.KBOX.GL.A.0014.240403T1200Z-240404T1500Z/ /O.NEW.KBOX.GL.W.0019.240403T1000Z-240404T1500Z/ Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard and Nantucket- Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out to 20 nm South of Block Island- 313 AM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024 ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM EDT THURSDAY... * WHAT...East winds 35 to 45 kt with gusts up to 50 kt and seas 8 to 13 feet expected. * WHERE...In Massachusetts coastal waters, Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard and Nantucket. In Rhode Island coastal waters, Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out to 20 nm South of Block Island. * WHEN...From 6 AM Wednesday to 11 AM EDT Thursday. * IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions. && $$ ANZ230-022015- /O.UPG.KBOX.GL.A.0014.240403T1500Z-240404T1800Z/ /O.NEW.KBOX.GL.W.0019.240403T1800Z-240404T1800Z/ Boston Harbor- 313 AM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024 ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 2 PM EDT THURSDAY... * WHAT...East winds 30 to 40 kt with gusts up to 45 kt and waves 2 to 4 feet expected. * WHERE...Boston Harbor. * WHEN...From 2 PM Wednesday to 2 PM EDT Thursday. * IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions. && $$ ANZ231-022015- /O.UPG.KBOX.GL.A.0014.240403T1800Z-240405T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KBOX.GL.W.0019.240403T1800Z-240404T1800Z/ Cape Cod Bay- 313 AM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024 ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 2 PM EDT THURSDAY... * WHAT...East winds 30 to 40 kt with gusts up to 50 kt and seas 6 to 11 feet expected. * WHERE...Cape Cod Bay. * WHEN...From 2 PM Wednesday to 2 PM EDT Thursday. * IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions. && $$ ANZ236-022015- /O.UPG.KBOX.GL.A.0014.240403T1500Z-240404T1800Z/ /O.NEW.KBOX.GL.W.0019.240403T1800Z-240404T0900Z/ Narragansett Bay- 313 AM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024 ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM EDT THURSDAY... * WHAT...East winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and waves 3 to 4 feet expected. * WHERE...Narragansett Bay. * WHEN...From 2 PM Wednesday to 5 AM EDT Thursday. * IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions. && $$ ANZ250-254-022015- /O.CON.KBOX.SR.A.0005.240403T2000Z-240405T0000Z/ Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank National Marine Sanctuary- Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA out 20 nm- 313 AM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024 ...STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING... * WHAT...East winds 30 to 40 kt with gusts up to 55 kt and seas 14 to 19 feet possible. * WHERE...Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank National Marine Sanctuary and Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA out 20 nm. * WHEN...From Wednesday afternoon through Thursday evening. * IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should prepare to remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions before conditions deteriorate. && $$
1 follow-up statement
105 WHUS71 KBOX 021808 MWWBOX URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 208 PM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024 ANZ230-030715- /O.CAN.KBOX.GL.W.0019.240403T1800Z-240404T1800Z/ /O.NEW.KBOX.SR.A.0006.240404T0000Z-240404T1500Z/ Boston Harbor- 208 PM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024 ...STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING... ...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED... * WHAT...East winds 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 50 kt and waves 2 to 3 feet possible. * WHERE...Boston Harbor. * WHEN...From Wednesday evening through Thursday morning. * IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should prepare to remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions before conditions deteriorate. && $$ ANZ236-030715- /O.CAN.KBOX.GL.W.0019.240403T1800Z-240404T0900Z/ /O.NEW.KBOX.SR.A.0006.240404T0000Z-240404T0800Z/ Narragansett Bay- 208 PM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024 ...STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT... ...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED... * WHAT...East winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt and waves around 3 feet possible. * WHERE...Narragansett Bay. * WHEN...From Wednesday evening through late Wednesday night. * IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should prepare to remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions before conditions deteriorate. && $$ ANZ232-030715- /O.UPG.KBOX.GL.W.0019.240403T1000Z-240404T1200Z/ /O.NEW.KBOX.SR.W.0004.240403T1800Z-240404T1200Z/ Nantucket Sound- 208 PM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024 ...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY... * WHAT...East winds 30 to 40 kt with gusts up to 50 kt and seas 6 to 9 feet expected. * WHERE...Nantucket Sound. * WHEN...From 2 PM Wednesday to 8 AM EDT Thursday. * IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions. && $$ ANZ233>235-237-030715- /O.UPG.KBOX.GL.W.0019.240403T1000Z-240404T1200Z/ /O.NEW.KBOX.SR.W.0004.240403T1800Z-240404T0800Z/ Vineyard Sound-Buzzards Bay-Rhode Island Sound-Block Island Sound- 208 PM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024 ...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EDT THURSDAY... * WHAT...East winds 30 to 40 kt with gusts up to 50 kt and seas 6 to 11 feet expected. * WHERE...In Massachusetts coastal waters, Vineyard Sound and Buzzards Bay. In Rhode Island coastal waters, Rhode Island Sound and Block Island Sound. * WHEN...From 2 PM Wednesday to 4 AM EDT Thursday. * IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions. && $$ ANZ255-030715- /O.UPG.KBOX.GL.W.0019.240403T1000Z-240404T1500Z/ /O.NEW.KBOX.SR.W.0004.240403T1800Z-240404T1200Z/ Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard and Nantucket- 208 PM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024 ...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY... * WHAT...East winds 30 to 40 kt with gusts up to 55 kt and seas 10 to 15 feet expected. * WHERE...Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard and Nantucket. * WHEN...From 2 PM Wednesday to 8 AM EDT Thursday. * IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions. && $$ ANZ256-030715- /O.UPG.KBOX.GL.W.0019.240403T1000Z-240404T1500Z/ /O.NEW.KBOX.SR.W.0004.240403T1800Z-240404T0800Z/ Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out to 20 nm South of Block Island- 208 PM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024 ...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EDT THURSDAY... * WHAT...East winds 30 to 40 kt with gusts up to 55 kt and seas 11 to 16 feet expected. * WHERE...Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out to 20 nm South of Block Island. * WHEN...From 2 PM Wednesday to 4 AM EDT Thursday. * IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions. && $$ ANZ231-030715- /O.UPG.KBOX.GL.W.0019.240403T1800Z-240404T1800Z/ /O.NEW.KBOX.SR.W.0004.240404T0000Z-240404T1500Z/ Cape Cod Bay- 208 PM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024 ...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM EDT THURSDAY... * WHAT...East winds 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 50 kt and seas 6 to 11 feet expected. * WHERE...Cape Cod Bay. * WHEN...From 8 PM Wednesday to 11 AM EDT Thursday. * IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions. && $$ ANZ254-030715- /O.UPG.KBOX.SR.A.0005.240403T2000Z-240405T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KBOX.SR.W.0004.240403T2100Z-240404T1500Z/ Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA out 20 nm- 208 PM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024 ...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM EDT THURSDAY... * WHAT...East winds 30 to 40 kt with gusts up to 55 kt and seas 15 to 20 feet expected. * WHERE...Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA out 20 nm. * WHEN...From 5 PM Wednesday to 11 AM EDT Thursday. * IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions. && $$ ANZ250-251-030715- /O.UPG.KBOX.SR.A.0005.240403T2000Z-240405T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KBOX.SR.W.0004.240404T0000Z-240404T1800Z/ Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank National Marine Sanctuary-Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay- 208 PM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024 ...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM WEDNESDAY TO 2 PM EDT THURSDAY... * WHAT...East winds 30 to 40 kt with gusts up to 55 kt and seas 19 to 24 feet expected. * WHERE...Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank National Marine Sanctuary and Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay. * WHEN...From 8 PM Wednesday to 2 PM EDT Thursday. * IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the vessel for severe conditions. && $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this gale warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Boston/Norton, MA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Apr 2, 1:43 AM EDT, 1 hour 30 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Apr 2, 1:43 AM EDT, 1 hour 30 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
143 AM EDT Tue Apr 2 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and quiet weather tonight with increasing cloud cover. A
warm front lifts toward our region on Tuesday bringing light
rain from southwest to northeast, especially later in the day.
There is a bit of a lull/downtick in precipitation Tuesday night
as that front stalls. A robust system Wednesday and Thursday
will bring multiple hazards; elevation dependent snow and/or
sleet, east/northeast wind gusts could become strong to locally
damaging, heavy rainfall which could lead to renewed river
flooding concerns, and possible coastal flooding. Unsettled
conditions may linger into next weekend as the storm will be
slow to depart.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
10PM Update:
A rather calm start to the night with light winds and clear
skies. Still watching for the possibility for fog/low status
development overnight, but guidance seems a bit overdone where
dew points remain in the middle 30s. Closer to the eastern
coast line, dew points are approaching or in the 40s giving the best
chance for fog to develop overnight.
Highlights
* Dry and quiet weather with increasing cloud cover.
* Could have patchy fog/stratus across eastern MA after
midnight.
A ridge axis with a shortwave/convection embedded within it will
be initially over the Mid Mississippi River Valley this evening.
The ridge will build into the eastern Great Lakes, but will have
some shortwave energy riding along/quickly in wake of this axis.
A weak high nudges into our region tonight, and a frontal
boundary will be stalled well to our south.
Dry and quiet weather anticipated across southern New England
tonight. Main concern in the forecast is the potential for
patchy fog development across eastern MA. Given the increasing
moisture along with light/variable winds or perhaps with a
northeasterly onshore component there could be dense fog. This
could impact the Boston metro area, SE MA (including Cape Cod).
For now didn't hit things as hard as the GLAMP guidance does,
as winds may strengthen enough to keep it at bay. On top of this
winds may remain more northerly in the Boston area vs
northeasterly. Will have to see how things trend as the night
progresses, but this would likely be a concern after 10 PM to 12
AM.
Given the increasing cloud cover will see fairly mild temps with
lows in the mid 30s to low 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Highlights
* Starting off dry across southern New England on Tue, but will
see rain spread in from southwest to northeast as the day
progresses.
* Could have a bit of a lull/downtick in precipitation Tue Night
before the next slug of moisture comes in on Wed.
The shortwave trough in wake of the ridge will lift from the OH
Valley early on Tue into/through southern New England by late in
the day. A deeper trough digs/cuts off near the central Great
Lakes by early Wed, but we will have an amplifying ridge axis
over our area. A warm front will lift toward our region on Tue
and generally stall to our south Tue Night as high pressure
nudges in from Quebec.
Fairly good consensus amongst guidance for a dry start to Tue,
but will see increasing precip chances from SW to NE as that
warm front lifts toward the region. There is some discrepancy on
how much QPF we receive initially on the northeast edge as it
will be fighting drier air. For now blended the latest WPC
guidance with the NBM to dial back the northeast gradient of the
precip. Fortunately all this precipitation is anticipated to be
rain at this point with the system.
Temps at 925 hPa will be around 1 degree Celsius with onshore
flow. Did dial back the higher NBM given the onshore flow and
blended with the NAM guidance. This seems much more reasonable
given the setup. Highs generally in the 40s, but there could be
some lower 50s across the CT River Valley.
Colder air continues to nudge in Tue Night into early Wed with E
to NE winds. This also pushes in some drier air from that high
well to our north. This should result in a downtick in precip
intensity, perhaps even ceasing for a bit for a good portion of
the region. This is actually advertised by the HREF guidance.
This is brief as another slug of moisture pushes in toward Wed
AM. Given the drier air and temp profiles will see a snow/wintry
mix across the higher elevations. Given the light QPF am not
really anticipating much if any accumulation. Low temps will be
in the 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Highlights:
* Winter Storm Watch issued for portions of western Massachusetts.
* Heavy rain with renewed flooding concerns may linger into the
second-half of the week.
* Strong to potentially damaging winds gusts possible late Wednesday
into Thursday.
* Coastal flooding possible, especially along the east coast of
Massachusetts.
Unfortunately, the forecast resembles more of winter rather than
spring, and no, this is no April Fools'. A long duration event is
expected to bring multiple hazards to southern New England as early
as Wednesday and through Thursday night. While the impactful weather
will be coming to an end late Thursday night, unsettled conditions
do continues for Friday. Primary threats are; heavy rainfall which
could lead to renewed river flooding concerns, elevation dependent
snow and/or sleet, east/northeast wind gusts could become strong to
locally damaging, and possible coastal flooding.
Mid-level steering pattern ushers a broad mid-level trough and
cutoff low in from the west. Developing surface low pressure system
over the Carolina's moves up the east coast and strengthens as it
nears southern New England. The system will transport higher PWATs
of 0.8" to 1.2" which is 1 to 2 STD above normal. Likely to lead to
periods of heavy rain, but the good news, the rain falls over a
longer duration. This should limit widespread areal flooding,
but river flooding will need to be closely watched. With the
passage of the low, a strong LLJ develops late Wednesday
afternoon with a 50 to 70 knot jet at 925mb over eastern
Massachusetts, southern Rhode Island, and the Berkshires. This
will lead to periods of strong wind gusts and large waves at the
coast, enhancing the coastal flood threat. The surface low does
become trapped beneath the cutoff low late this week, which
will continue the unsettled weather into Friday/early Saturday.
Rain and River Flooding Concerns:
As we are inching closer to the event we are able to tap into the
high-res models and see how things may pan out. By Wednesday morning
there looks to be widespread rain chances areas south of the Mass
Pike and east of I-495. Rainfall amounts, ensembles continue to show
modest totals, with greater than 90 percent of an inch. There is
some variability when we get to the 2 inch prob, ENS 30 to 50 percent
across much of the area with "hot spots" of 70 to 90 percent across
the lower CT River Valley and Rhode Island. Similar the GEFS has
nearly 100 percent probs of an inch, 40 to 70 percent of 2 inches,
and a hot spot of less than 20 percent for up to 4 inches in
northern Merrimack Valley. As for rivers, the Pawtuxet River at
Cranston has a 30 percent chance of moderate flood, while the Charles
at Dover, Wood River at Hope Valley, Pawcatuck River at Westerly &
Wood River Junction - all have a 70 percent chance of reaching minor
flood stage.
Winter Weather:
As for what we should expect for ptypes, there remains a good deal
of uncertainty because of the marginal thermal profiles. The 12z run
of the deterministic models are indicating a warm nose, area of
above freezing temperatures aloft, in the vicinity of the 800mb to
700mb. This could lead to less in the way of snow and more in the
way of sleet or perhaps pockets of freezing rain. That said, our
greatest confidence in accumulation of snow remain across the
northern Worcester Hills and northern Berkshires. Per collaboration
with WPC and neighboring WFOs have opt to hoist a Winter Storm Watch
for our extreme far western CWA, western Franklin and Hampshire
counties starting Wednesday morning through Thursday. Here are the
best chances of 7+ inches of snow. As for northern Worcester County
there are modest probs of advisory level snow, greater than 3 inches
between 50 and 70 percent, based off the latest NBM ensembles. As for
the major cities, Boston, Providence, Hartford and Springfield,
looks to be an all rain event, with a brief switch over at the end.
Did want to mention, City of Worcester, there is a 25 percent chance
of up to an inch.
Wind:
As mentioned above, there is a strong jet passing through which
could add to the headache of this storm late Wednesday into
Thursday. There are some fairly high probs of advisory level wind
gusts, greater than 46mph across most of interior Connecticut and
central and western Massachusetts with the caveat, outside of the CT
River Valley. While lower probs, still modest 40 to 60 percent for
coastal Rhode Island and eastern Massachusetts. There are even low
probs of up to 40 percent across northern Worcester County that wind
gusts could exceed 60 mph which would meet high wind criteria. With
uncertainty of how much of that wind aloft will mix down, have opt
to hold off on issuing any wind headlines at this point. With the
exception of mentioning the strong wind gusts in the Winter Storm
Watch in far western Massachusetts of gusts 50 to 60 mph. Do think
across much of the CWA there will be the potential for winds to gust
30 to 50 mph. Stay tuned as we iron out those details.
Coastal Flooding:
For details regarding the potential for any coastal flooding, please
see the Tides & Coastal Flooding section at the bottom of the AFD.
Friday through Sunday...
Surface low-pressure system slowly departs northeast into Friday.
Downstream blocking ridge will allow this system to meander close to
the northeast through the weekend. This would support persistent
northwest flow that will support cool/unsettled weather at least
through Saturday with the potential for improvements during the
second half of Sunday.
Monday...
Forecast is trending favorable for those looking to view the solar
eclipse - while not in full totality in southern New England much of
the area will have 89% to 94% totality.
Currently, the global models have a mid-level ridge developing over
the region with surface high pressure developing as well. Generally
this leads to tranquil weather, but the big question is how much
clouds cover could there be. To be upfront, cloud forecasting is
quiet difficult, but the larger scale pattern does lean towards a
favorable scenario to view the eclipse. Keep checking back as we get
closer to find out what the sky cover could be on Monday, April 8th!
&&
.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High- greater than 60 percent.
Rest of Tonight...Moderate confidence.
An area of low status has formed across NE MA stretching into
the Gulf of Maine. This area status is moving south and should
bring a brief period of IFR ceilings to BOS overnight.
Elsewhere, remaining VFR tonight except for the Cape and Islands
where fog is forming which will bring periods of MVFR/IFR
through sunrise. Light NE winds less then 5 knots.
Tuesday...Moderate Confidence
Left over low status and fog from overnight will begin to lift,
however the extent of improvement for eastern terminal is
uncertain with considerable disagreement among model sources.
Generally expecting at least some improvements to MVFR with a
chance for VFR. Elsewhere, VFR will give away to MVFR then to
IFR as a low pressure system brings periods of light rain
esspically to southern terminals. Winds remain NE at 5-10 knots
Tuesday Night...High confidence.
Brief reprieve from rain overnight along with CIGS improving to
MVFR/VFR. Winds begin to increase from the ENE gusting 15-25
knots by morning.
Wednesday... Moderate Confidence
CIGS decreasing through out the day back to MVFR/IFR with
better chances for rain. Mixed precipitation is possible across
the high terrain. Winds become very strong out of the ENE
gusting 30-40 knots inland, and 40-50 knots over the Cape and
Islands.
KBOS TAF...Moderate Confidence
An area of low status is dropping south this morning and will
likely bring a period of IFR CIGS. The extent of
improvement later this morning is uncertain, but generally
expect improvements of MVFR with a chance at VFR after sunrise.
Later today, ceilings will become MVFR/IFR by this afternoon
with periods of light showers. Ceilings improve back to VFR
tonight.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
VFR through about the lunch hour before ceilings gradually drop
to MVFR then IFR. Light rain this afternoon lasting into the
evening before tapering off tonight. Ceilings should improve to
MVFR/VFR tonight
Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...
Wednesday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Strong
winds with gusts up to 55 kt. RA, SN, chance FZRA, chance PL.
Thursday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Strong winds with gusts
up to 50 kt. RA likely, chance SN.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy.
Chance RA, chance SN.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
RA.
Friday Night through Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR
possible. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Tonight...High confidence.
Dry and tranquil boating conditions with a weak high building
overhead. Light and variable winds shifting to the NNE/NE after
midnight. Should see speeds increase to 10-20 kts across the
eastern waters. Seas 1-3 ft.
Tuesday...High confidence.
Dry weather and good vsby to start the day with NNE winds
becoming ENE. Speeds increase 15-20 kt by the afternoon with
building seas. Rain sliding across the waters SW to NE late.
Tuesday Night...High confidence.
Light rain across the waters with winds shifting to the ENE/E
and speeds increasing to 20-25 kts. Winds gusting 25-30 kts
late. Seas continuing to build.
Confidence high enough to hoist a Storm Watch and Gale Watch for
the coastal storm impacting our region Wednesday through
Thursday. Will see the highest gusts/speeds Wed Night into early
Thu.
Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...
Wednesday: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
45 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft. Rain.
Wednesday Night: gale force winds with gusts up to 45 kt. Rough
seas up to 20 ft. Rain.
Thursday: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 45 kt.
Rough seas up to 20 ft. Chance of rain.
Thursday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
local gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 15 ft. Slight chance
of rain.
Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Slight
chance of rain.
Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Chance of rain showers.
Saturday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of rain
showers.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
3 PM Update...
Minor to pockets of Moderate coastal flooding is expected around the
Thurs AM high tide. The greatest risk is on the eastern MA coast
given the persistent and increasing easterly flow and wave action.
There are still uncertainties specific to the forecast which could
greatly shape coastal flooding expectations, including the timing of
the peak storm surge but also the degree to which a secondary area
of low pressure deepens Wed night into Thurs.
For the south coast, high tide takes place at Providence Fox Point
on Thurs AM at 329 AM with a level of 4.17 ft MLLW. Stevens
Institute SnapEx ranges between 2 to 2.5 ft storm surge with P-ETSS
around 3-3.2 ft. The timing of the peak surge looks to occur a
couple hrs before high tide. In terms of the magnitude, the higher P-
ETSS surge could be realized if a rapidly deepening secondary
surface cyclone indeed materializes, since a 29 mb deepening can add
up to a ft of storm surge. Official forecast calls for areas of at
least splashover but with a worst case being solid Minor flooding on
the south facing coast.
The eastern MA coast faces a somewhat greater coastal flooding risk,
due to the persistent period of east winds but also from stronger
wave action as offshore waves build to 15-19 ft. At Boston Harbor,
high tide takes place around 635 AM Thurs AM at 9.49 ft MLLW. Peak
storm surge values range around 3 ft in the Stevens Institute to
around 3.2-3.5 ft in the P-ETSS, occurring close to or just before
high tide. Total water level forecasts support solid Minor to a
worst-case Moderate coastal flooding.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday morning through Thursday
evening for MAZ002-008.
RI...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Wednesday morning through Thursday afternoon
for ANZ230-236.
Gale Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday evening
for ANZ231-251.
Gale Watch from Wednesday morning through Thursday morning for
ANZ232>235-237-255-256.
Storm Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday evening
for ANZ250-254.
&&
SYNOPSIS...BL/Dooley
NEAR TERM...BL/KP
SHORT TERM...BL
LONG TERM...Dooley
AVIATION...KP
MARINE...BL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LocontoThe office that day
Everything else NWS Boston/Norton, MA issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 12:22 PM EDT | River Flood Watch | BOX | Bristol, Plymouth | 21 days |
| Apr 2, 12:22 PM EDT | River Flood Watch | BOX | Middlesex, Norfolk | 24 hr |
| Apr 2, 2:00 PM EDT | High Wind Watch | BOX | Barnstable, Bristol, Dukes, Essex, Nantucket, Norfolk and 2 more | 14 hr |
| Apr 2, 2:08 PM EDT | Storm Watch | BOX | 14 hr | |
| Apr 2, 2:08 PM EDT | Storm Warning | BOX | 46 hr | |
| Apr 2, 2:14 PM EDT | Coastal Flood Watch | BOX | Barnstable, Bristol, Dukes, Essex, Nantucket, Norfolk and 2 more | 25 hr |
| Apr 2, 12:22 PM EDT | River Flood Watch | BOX | Washington | 21 days |
| Apr 2, 12:22 PM EDT | River Flood Watch | BOX | Kent, Providence | 21 days |
| Apr 2, 12:30 PM EDT | River Flood Watch | BOX | Washington | 21 days |
Nearby
Gale Warnings in Massachusetts, 2024Every gale warning in 2024
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.