Severe Thunderstorm Warning 68, NWS Binghamton, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
143 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms expected across the
region today, as a cold front approaches the area. Some storms
may produce damaging winds, hail, and torrential rainfall. The
front will push through the area tonight, bringing relief from
the heat and humidity to start the week. Showers and
thunderstorms look to return on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
140 PM update...

The surface front is moving into our western regions around
noon with mostly light showers but with instability across much
of CNY into NEPA, these storms will begin to intensify shortly.
With a surface low moving east through the St. Lawrence river
valley today, a low level jet will be present through the day
that will keep low level shear high through the day. Currently
the vertical wind profile from the BGM radar does have some
curvature in the low levels despite some deeper mixing so any
storm that begins to move almost due west to east will be able
to ingest streamwise vorticity increasing its threat for deeper
mesocyclones and potential tornado threat. CAPE will be less
than previous days given the cloud cover but with good shear,
there will be better eviction of the precipitation out of the
updraft helping to support strong storms.

One limiting factor for most of the area west of I-81 is the
line of storms likely helping to stabilize the atmosphere
through peak heating but east of I-81 is seeing good solar
radiation. Surface obs have not had dew points mix down like
some of the CAMs have shown. The Mohawk valley has winds that
are slightly more southern compared to the rest of the area
which is seeing SW surface winds so any storms there will have
access to more surface vorticity and so a better tornado threat
is present there this afternoon.

Surface based cape looks to recover this afternoon across the
Finger Lakes but behind the surface front, winds aloft will be
more linear so if there is a severe threat this evening it will
be more for strait line winds and microburst again with our
second round of convection.

Showers and thunderstorms will diminish overnight, with wrap-
around showers and isolated thunder continuing through Monday,
along with noticeably cooler temperatures in the upper-60s to
mid-70s. Tomorrow night the wrap around precipitation comes to
an end as high pressure and ridging begins to return, Depending
on how much we clear out, there is the chance for widespread fog
but kept the forecast limited to the deeper valleys for now.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Only minor changes to previous discussion below.

NW flow and cool temps will not stick around for long as the
ridge of high pressure slides eastward and the flow shifts back
to WSWerly Tuesday morning. Mostly clear skies during the
morning hours will allow for temps to climb into the mid to
upper 80s by the afternoon. At least the humidity will remain
relatively low, with dewpoints in the upper 50s, so it will not
feel as sweltering as it has this past week. The ridge looks to
be strong enough to stymie an approaching shortwave and push
precipitation north and south of the area during the afternoon
and evening hours.

The ridge looks to break down Tuesday night, allowing some rain
showers to enter the area from the west. Temps will be warm, only
cooling into the mid to upper 60s as SW flow advects more heat and
moisture into the region.

WAA continues through Wednesday morning, pumping in warm and very
moist air. Dewpoints climb back into the upper 60s across the region
as temperatures warm into the 80s, pushing heat indices back into
the 90s. This combined with a trough sliding into the region from
the Great Lakes will give us our next chance for a severe weather
outbreak. Currently, GFS shows 1500-2500 j/kg of surface based CAPE
across the region with 0-6km bulk shear around 30-35kts. A shortwave
currently looks to be the lifting mechanism to help initiate these
storms, but guidance is still working out how it will play out. The
cold front has been trending a little faster, now moving into the
area Wednesday night. We will have to monitor this trend as a cold
front passage in the late afternoon/early evening would increase
severe chances.

Rain and thunderstorm chances remain across the area through the
night as the cold front pushes through, dissipating by the morning
commute. Temps and dewpoints will fall into the low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Only minor changes to the previous discussion below. Another
cold front with our next chance of showers and thunderstorms
should move through next weekend.

A strong ridge will build in behind the cold front passing
through the area Wednesday night/Thursday morning. NW flow
through the day on Thursday will push drier air into the region,
with dewpoints falling through the day, bottoming out in the low
50s with temps in the 70s. The ridge axis slides east of us on
Friday, warming us back up for the end of the work week and the
weekend. Rain chances should hold off till Saturday as temps
rise back into the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions still prevail but thunderstorms have developed
and are still expected to move through this afternoon and
evening. Timing was pushed back slightly at AVP but kept the
same timing at all other terminals. Tonight after the storms
move through, there will be a brief period of VFR once again
before MVFR cigs move back in as flow becomes northwesterly
towards morning. AVP will likely be able to become scattered in
the morning but all other terminals will likely see MVFR cigs
into 18Z tomorrow.

Outlook...

Monday...Ceiling restrictions, mainly MVFR, but possible fuel
alt, will linger into the late morning or early afternoon.
Scattered showers are also expected to develop through the
afternoon, especially across Central NY.

Monday Night through Tuesday...VFR likely, except possible
valley fog Tuesday morning.

Wednesday through Friday...Restrictions possible in scattered
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ040-043-044-
     047-048-072.
NY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ062.
     Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ062.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AJG/MPH
NEAR TERM...AJG/MPH
SHORT TERM...JTC/MWG
LONG TERM...JTC/MWG
AVIATION...AJG

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1151 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1104 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Highland Lake           41.52N 74.87W
06/22/2024                   Sullivan           NY   911 Call Center

            Corrects previous tstm wnd dmg report from
            Highland Lake. Trees and Wires down in area.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
207 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

NYZ022-024-PAZ038-231830-
Steuben NY-Chemung NY-Bradford PA-
207 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN CHEMUNG...
SOUTHEASTERN STEUBEN AND NORTHWESTERN BRADFORD COUNTIES THROUGH 230
PM EDT...

At 207 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Elkland, or 17 miles north of Wellsboro, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Corning, Big Flats, Caton, Lindley, Addison, South Corning,
Lawrenceville, Millerton, East Corning, and Erwins.

This includes the following highway exits...
 Interstate 86/Route 17 between 47 and 50.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4218 7690 4193 7685 4192 7692 4200 7693
      4200 7758 4201 7758
TIME...MOT...LOC 1807Z 259DEG 39KT 4198 7742

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

AJG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
257 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

NYZ024-055-PAZ038-231930-
Chemung NY-Tioga NY-Bradford PA-
257 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN CHEMUNG...
SOUTHWESTERN TIOGA AND NORTHEASTERN BRADFORD COUNTIES THROUGH 330 PM
EDT...

At 257 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Wellsburg, or near Chemung, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Chemung, Elmira, Southport, Barton, Sayre, Waverly, Athens,
Ridgebury, Litchfield, and South Waverly.

This includes the following highway exits...
 Interstate 86/Route 17 between 57 and 63.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4195 7682 4209 7683 4217 7631 4192 7621
TIME...MOT...LOC 1857Z 268DEG 37KT 4201 7673

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

AJG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
321 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

NYZ018-036-037-044-045-232000-
Chenango NY-Onondaga NY-Southern Oneida NY-Cortland NY-Madison NY-
321 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL ONEIDA...
MADISON...NORTHEASTERN CORTLAND...SOUTHERN ONONDAGA AND NORTHWESTERN
CHENANGO COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM EDT...

At 321 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Pompey, or 12 miles southeast of Syracuse, moving northeast at 35
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Onondaga, Syracuse, De Witt, Sullivan, Oneida, Lenox, Pompey, Eaton,
Chittenango, and Canastota.

This includes the following highway exits...
 Interstate 90 near 34.
 New York Interstate 81 between 14 and 16.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4295 7529 4266 7582 4291 7636 4316 7590
      4315 7588 4315 7587 4316 7585 4316 7582
TIME...MOT...LOC 1921Z 231DEG 32KT 4287 7604

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

KL/AJG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
411 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

NYZ022>025-055-PAZ038-232045-
Steuben NY-Chemung NY-Schuyler NY-Tioga NY-Tompkins NY-Bradford PA-
411 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN SCHUYLER...
CHEMUNG...WEST CENTRAL TIOGA...SOUTHEASTERN STEUBEN...SOUTHWESTERN
TOMPKINS AND NORTHWESTERN BRADFORD COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM EDT...

At 411 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Newfield to near Lawrenceville. Movement was
southeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Chemung, Elmira, Southport, Big Flats, Horseheads, Newfield, Elmira
Heights, Caton, Ridgebury, and Lindley.

This includes the following highway exits...
 Interstate 86/Route 17 between 47 and 59.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4240 7668 4226 7626 4179 7689 4200 7693
      4200 7720
TIME...MOT...LOC 2011Z 294DEG 35KT 4237 7659 4194 7710

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MWG

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