Flash Flood Warning 55, NWS Binghamton, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
252 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level storm system will bring showers and thunderstorms
to the area today, with risks for localized flooding and perhaps
damaging winds in the stronger thunderstorms. Showers will
linger into Monday, with drier and cooler conditions arriving
Tuesday. A few showers may return to the area mid-week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
250 PM Update...

An upper low over southern Ontario will weaken into an open
trough as it drifts east tonight. Several shortwave troughs
moving through NY/PA will be the focus for clusters of showers
and thunderstorms through this evening.

Moderate instability has developed across the area as widespread
cloud cover has started to erode. SPC mesoanalysis shows a sharp
gradient over the Hudson Valley, with with SBCAPE of 1500-2000
J/Kg across most of our CWA. Surface analysis also suggests a
weak front or convergence zone roughly along I-81, with SE winds
to its east, and lighter southerly flow to its west. This
boundary has also been a focal point for deeper convection
stretching from NEPA into Oneida County.

Models suggest low level (0-1km) shear will increase to around
20 knots across areas roughly south of I-88 in NY and NEPA later
this afternoon, and there is a risk for an isolated tornado.
Otherwise, the primary severe threat will be damaging wind
gusts.

There's also a risk for flash flooding as storm motion is ideal
for training, which we're already seeing, especially in NEPA.
The Flash Flood Watch will remain in effect as-is, covering the
areas most sensitive to flooding due to prior rainfall. Isolated
flash flooding is also possible further north, outside of the
watch area.

Showers and thunderstorms will diminish in intensity and
coverage from west to east tonight, but isolated showers will
persist through morning. A cold front will push through the area
Monday morning into the early afternoon with showers and
isolated thunderstorms again increasing in coverage. CAMS
suggest a weak convective line may develop ahead of the front in
the early afternoon, mainly affecting areas east of I-81.

Cooler temperatures will filter into the area through the day,
and high temps may be set in the morning, with afternoon
temperatures falling into the 60s. Monday night will be chilly,
with lows dropping into the lower-50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
125 PM Update...

The trough overhead the Northeast lingers through the short term
period. The center low of the trough dives southward Tuesday,
and may bring some light rain showers over Central NY during the
daytime Wednesday. As the center low pushes southward, it'll
bring some colder Canadian air down into Central NY and NE PA,
bringing high temperatures down to the low to mid 60s Tuesday,
and overnight Tuesday temperatures down to the mid 40s to low
50s. Wednesday high temperatures warm very slightly to the mid
60s to low 70s, but overnight temperatures cool back down to the
high 40s to low 50s overnight Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
125 PM Update:

The trough finally exits off to the east during the later half
of the week, and high pressure begins to build. For the rest of
the week, it's expected to be dry with temperatures warming from
the low to mid 70s on Thursday to the low 80s on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Lower ceilings are beginning to erode across the area, as
showers and thunderstorms increase in coverage. IFR still
hanging on at BGM, but should lift to MVFR shortly.

Through the afternoon, ceilings will lift to MVFR-VFR, with
restrictions mostly due to visibility reductions in locally
heavy rainfall. Timing of heaviest rain and possible thunder is
a bit difficult to pinpoint, but kept TEMPO groups with minor
adjustments.

Surface low and a cold front will begin moving through the area
overnight, with lowering ceilings expected, and IFR to Fuel Alt
common before dawn. Lower ceilings will linger well into the day
Monday as the upper low moves overhead.

.Outlook...

Monday Afternoon through Monday night...Ceiling restrictions
with only minor improvements in the afternoon. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms daytime with resultant occasional
restrictions, followed by post-frontal ceilings lowering late
afternoon through night.

Tuesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR as high pressure gradually
builds across the region.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for PAZ038>040-043-044-
     047-048-072.
NY...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ022-024-055-056-
     062.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MPH
NEAR TERM...MPH
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...MPH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
205 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

NYZ062-PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-072-191815-
Sullivan-Susquehanna-Northern Wayne-Wyoming-Lackawanna-Luzerne-Pike-
Southern Wayne-
205 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 634 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
severe weather to the NWS.

NYZ009-015>018-023-025-036-037-044>046-191815-
Northern Oneida-Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Schuyler-
Tompkins-Madison-Southern Oneida-Cortland-Chenango-Otsego-
205 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected today, a few possibly
containing heavy rainfall, especially afternoon through early
evening. Isolated flash flooding will be possible for locations
that receive multiple rounds of rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NYZ022-024-055-056-PAZ038-191815-
Steuben-Chemung-Tioga-Broome-Bradford-
205 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

Also, a few of the thunderstorms this afternoon to early evening
could become severe with damaging winds. An isolated tornado cannot
be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
severe weather to the NWS.

NYZ057-191815-
Delaware-
205 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 634 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected today, a few possibly
containing heavy rainfall, especially afternoon through early
evening. Isolated flash flooding will be possible for locations
that receive multiple rounds of rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
severe weather to the NWS.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
459 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0459 PM     Flash Flood      Clifford                41.65N 75.60W
08/18/2024                   Susquehanna        PA   911 Call Center

            Water rescue, water up to front door or
            residence.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
532 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0531 PM     Flash Flood      2 SSW Burnwood          41.75N 75.53W
08/18/2024                   Susquehanna        PA   Emergency Mngr

            Roads closed in Uniondale due to flooding.

&&