Alert archive / Michigan / Winter Storm Warnings in 2024

Winter Storm Warning 2, NWS Gaylord, MI

January 11, 202425 counties in Michigan

NWS Gaylord, MI issued this winter storm warning at Jan 11, 2024, 4:01 PM EST for 25 counties in Michigan. It took effect at Jan 12, 2024, 1:00 PM EST. It was in force for 16 hr. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Jan 11, 2024, 4:01 PM EST (21:01 UTC)
In effect from
Jan 12, 2024, 1:00 PM EST
Expired
Jan 13, 2024, 4:47 AM EST
In force
16 hr
Issued by
NWS Gaylord, MI
All 25 counties

Alcona County, MI, Alpena County, MI, Antrim County, MI, Arenac County, MI, Benzie County, MI, Charlevoix County, MI, Cheboygan County, MI, Chippewa County, MI, Crawford County, MI, Emmet County, MI, Gladwin County, MI, Grand Traverse County, MI, Iosco County, MI, Kalkaska County, MI, Leelanau County, MI, Mackinac County, MI, Manistee County, MI, Missaukee County, MI, Montmorency County, MI, Ogemaw County, MI, Oscoda County, MI, Otsego County, MI, Presque Isle County, MI, Roscommon County, MI, Wexford County, MI

The radar

The NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 7 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:59 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Jan 12, 6:30 PM ESTSNOW 3.52 N Skeels, MI3hr Snowfall total since snow began at 355pm. Spotter reports tiny, wet flakes. Report from social media.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

The nearest sounding before it

Alpena, MI (KAPX), launched 12:00Z, 9.0 hours before the alert went out and 183 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Alpena, MI at 12:00Z on 2024-01-11Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Alpena, MI at 12:00Z on 2024-01-11The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 72 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
618 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
22 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
72 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
43 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

038 
WWUS43 KAPX 112101
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
401 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2024

MIZ020-021-025>027-031>033-099-120515-
/O.UPG.KAPX.WS.A.0002.240112T1800Z-240113T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.WS.W.0002.240112T1800Z-240114T0000Z/
Leelanau-Antrim-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Manistee-Wexford-
Missaukee-Charlevoix-
Including the cities of Northport, Mancelona, Frankfort, 
Traverse City, Kalkaska, Manistee, Cadillac, Lake City, 
and Charlevoix
401 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2024

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 13
  inches through Saturday afternoon. Greatest accumulations will
  favor areas away from Lake Michigan. East to northeast winds
  gusting 45 to 55 mph Friday night. Winds turn northwest by 
  Saturday, gusting to 30 to 40 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of Northern Lower Michigan.

* WHEN...From 1 PM Friday to 7 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Patchy blowing snow
  could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions
  will impact the Friday evening commute. Gusty winds could bring
  down tree branches.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Activity transitions to lake effect snow 
  showers later Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

&&

$$

MIZ086>088-095-096-120515-
/O.UPG.KAPX.WS.A.0002.240113T0000Z-240114T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.WS.W.0002.240112T2100Z-240114T0000Z/
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa-
Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac-
Including the cities of Paradise, Trout Lake, Rudyard, 
Sault Ste. Marie, Brimley, Kinross, Sugar Island, Detour Village,
Goetzville, Drummond Island, Engadine, Naubinway, Epoufette, 
St. Ignace, Brevort, and Les Cheneaux Islands
401 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2024

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 9
  inches through Saturday afternoon. Northeast winds gusting 40 to
  50 mph Friday night. Winds turn north to northwest Saturday,
  gusting 25 to 35 mph.

* WHERE...Western Chippewa, Central Chippewa, Southeast 
  Chippewa, Western Mackinac and Eastern Mackinac Counties.

* WHEN...From 4 PM Friday to 7 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Blowing snow could
  significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could
  impact the late Friday evening commute. Gusty winds could bring
  down tree branches.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Activity transitions to lake effect snow 
  showers later Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

&&

$$

MIZ097-120515-
/O.UPG.KAPX.WS.A.0002.240112T1800Z-240113T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.WS.W.0002.240112T2100Z-240114T0000Z/
Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island-
Including the city of Mackinac Island
401 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2024

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 7 to 
  10 inches. Winds gusting as high as 55 mph.

* WHERE...Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island.

* WHEN...From 4 PM Friday to 7 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Widespread blowing
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. Gusty winds could 
  bring down tree branches.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

&&

$$

MIZ098-120515-
/O.UPG.KAPX.WS.A.0002.240113T0000Z-240114T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.WS.W.0002.240112T1800Z-240114T0000Z/
Beaver Island and surrounding islands-
Including the city of St. James
401 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2024

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 7 to 10
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 55 mph Friday night, and 25 to
  35 mph during the day Saturday.

* WHERE...Beaver Island and surrounding islands.

* WHEN...From 1 PM Friday to 7 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Widespread blowing
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. Strong winds could 
  cause tree damage.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

&&

$$

MIZ016>018-022>024-028>030-034-035-041-120515-
/O.UPG.KAPX.WS.A.0002.240112T1800Z-240113T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.WS.W.0002.240112T2100Z-240114T0000Z/
Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Otsego-Montmorency-Alpena-Crawford-
Oscoda-Alcona-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Gladwin-
Including the cities of Petoskey, Cheboygan, Rogers City, 
Gaylord, Atlanta, Alpena, Grayling, Mio, Harrisville, 
Houghton Lake, West Branch, and Gladwin
401 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2024

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snowfall and significant impacts from blowing snow
  expected. Total snow accumulations of 10 to 15 inches, with
  potential for localized accumulations approaching 20 inches. 
  East to northeast winds gusting as high as 55 mph Friday evening
  and overnight. Winds turning more north to northwest Saturday, 
  gusting to 25 to 35 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of Northern Lower Michigan.

* WHEN...From 4 PM Friday to 7 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible.
  Widespread blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility.
  The hazardous conditions could impact the Friday evening /
  overnight and Saturday commutes. Gusty winds could bring down
  tree branches.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Activity transitions to lake effect snow 
  showers later Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

&&

$$

MIZ036-042-120515-
/O.UPG.KAPX.WS.A.0002.240112T1800Z-240113T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.WS.W.0002.240112T2100Z-240114T0000Z/
Iosco-Arenac-
Including the cities of Tawas City and Standish
401 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2024

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 6
  inches near the immediate shores of Saginaw Bay; 8 to 14 inches
  farther inland. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph.

* WHERE...Iosco and Arenac Counties.

* WHEN...From 4 PM Friday to 7 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Patchy
  blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The
  hazardous conditions will impact the Friday evening commute. 
  Gusty winds could bring down tree branches.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/gaylord
5 follow-up statements
485 
WWUS43 KAPX 120334
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1034 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2024

MIZ086>088-095>097-121315-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0002.240112T2100Z-240114T0000Z/
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa-
Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac-
Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island-
Including the cities of Paradise, Trout Lake, Rudyard, 
Sault Ste. Marie, Brimley, Kinross, Sugar Island, Detour Village,
Goetzville, Drummond Island, Engadine, Naubinway, Epoufette, 
St. Ignace, Brevort, Les Cheneaux Islands, and Mackinac Island
1034 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2024

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO
7 PM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 9 
  inches through Saturday afternoon. Northeast winds gusting 40 
  to 50 mph Friday night. Winds turn north to northwest 
  Saturday, gusting 25 to 35 mph.

* WHERE...Western Chippewa, Central Chippewa, Southeast 
  Chippewa, Western Mackinac and Eastern Mackinac Counties.

* WHEN...From 4 PM Friday to 7 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Blowing snow could 
  significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions 
  could impact the late Friday evening commute. Gusty winds 
  could bring down tree branches.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Activity transitions to lake effect snow 
  showers later Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

&&

$$

MIZ020-021-025>027-031>033-098-099-121315-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0002.240112T1800Z-240114T0000Z/
Leelanau-Antrim-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Manistee-Wexford-
Missaukee-Beaver Island and surrounding islands-Charlevoix-
Including the cities of Northport, Mancelona, Frankfort, 
Traverse City, Kalkaska, Manistee, Cadillac, Lake City, 
St. James, and Charlevoix
1034 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2024

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO
7 PM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 
  13 inches through Saturday afternoon. Greatest accumulations 
  will favor areas away from Lake Michigan. East to northeast 
  winds gusting 45 to 55 mph Friday night. Winds turn northwest 
  by Saturday, gusting to 30 to 40 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of Northern Lower Michigan.

* WHEN...From 1 PM Friday to 7 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Patchy blowing snow 
  could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous 
  conditions will impact the Friday evening commute. Gusty winds 
  could bring down tree branches.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Activity transitions to lake effect snow 
  showers later Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

&&

$$

MIZ016>018-022>024-028>030-034-035-041-121315-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0002.240112T2100Z-240114T0000Z/
Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Otsego-Montmorency-Alpena-Crawford-
Oscoda-Alcona-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Gladwin-
Including the cities of Petoskey, Cheboygan, Rogers City, 
Gaylord, Atlanta, Alpena, Grayling, Mio, Harrisville, 
Houghton Lake, West Branch, and Gladwin
1034 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2024

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO
7 PM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snowfall and significant impacts from blowing 
  snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 10 to 15 inches, 
  with potential for localized accumulations approaching 20 
  inches. East to northeast winds gusting as high as 55 mph 
  Friday evening and overnight. Winds turning more north to 
  northwest Saturday, gusting to 25 to 35 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of Northern Lower Michigan.

* WHEN...From 4 PM Friday to 7 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. 
  Widespread blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. 
  The hazardous conditions could impact the Friday evening / 
  overnight and Saturday commutes. Gusty winds could bring down 
  tree branches.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Activity transitions to lake effect snow 
  showers later Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

&&

$$

MIZ036-042-121315-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0002.240112T2100Z-240114T0000Z/
Iosco-Arenac-
Including the cities of Tawas City and Standish
1034 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2024

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO
7 PM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 6 
  inches near the immediate shores of Saginaw Bay; 8 to 14 
  inches farther inland. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph.

* WHERE...Iosco and Arenac Counties.

* WHEN...From 4 PM Friday to 7 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Patchy 
  blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The 
  hazardous conditions will impact the Friday evening commute. 
  Gusty winds could bring down tree branches.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/gaylord
021 
WWUS43 KAPX 120937
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
437 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2024

MIZ017-018-024-030-036-097-121745-
/O.UPG.KAPX.WS.W.0002.240112T2100Z-240114T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.BZ.W.0001.240112T2200Z-240114T0000Z/
Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Alpena-Alcona-Iosco-
Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island-
Including the cities of Cheboygan, Rogers City, Alpena, 
Harrisville, Tawas City, and Mackinac Island
437 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2024

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM
EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of
  10 to 15 inches anticipated with localized amounts of 18 inches
  possible. Frequent wind gusts of 35 to 50 mph this evening and
  tonight with potential for 60 mph wind gusts, especially near 
  the Lake Huron shoreline.

* WHERE...Portions of Eastern Upper and Northern Lower Michigan.

* WHEN...From 5 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Worst conditions expected this evening and tonight.
  Travel could be very difficult to impossible during this time.
  Widespread blowing snow is expected to lead to significantly
  reduced visibilities for several hours. Significant drifting may
  lead to some impassible secondary roadways. Strong winds could
  cause tree damage and result in power outages. Dangerous driving
  conditions are anticipated this evening and overnight, making
  travel strongly discouraged.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Travel should be restricted to emergencies only. If you must
travel, have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded,
stay with your vehicle. 

&&

$$

MIZ022-023-028-029-035-121745-
/O.UPG.KAPX.WS.W.0002.240112T2100Z-240114T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.BZ.W.0001.240112T2200Z-240114T0000Z/
Otsego-Montmorency-Crawford-Oscoda-Ogemaw-
Including the cities of Gaylord, Atlanta, Grayling, Mio, 
and West Branch
437 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2024

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM
EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of
  10 to 15 inches anticipated with localized amounts of 18 inches
  possible. Frequent wind gusts of 35 to 50 mph expected this
  evening and tonight.

* WHERE...Otsego, Montmorency, Crawford, Oscoda and Ogemaw 
  Counties.

* WHEN...From 5 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Worst conditions expected this evening and tonight.
  Travel could be very difficult to impossible during this time.
  Widespread blowing snow is expected to lead to significantly
  reduced visibilities for several hours. Significant drifting may
  lead to some impassible secondary roadways. Strong winds could
  cause tree damage and result in power outages. Dangerous driving
  conditions are anticipated this evening and overnight, making
  travel strongly discouraged.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Travel should be restricted to emergencies only. If you must
travel, have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded,
stay with your vehicle. 

&&

$$

MIZ086>088-095-096-121745-
/O.EXT.KAPX.WS.W.0002.240113T0000Z-240114T0000Z/
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa-
Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac-
Including the cities of Paradise, Trout Lake, Rudyard, 
Sault Ste. Marie, Brimley, Kinross, Sugar Island, Detour Village,
Goetzville, Drummond Island, Engadine, Naubinway, Epoufette, 
St. Ignace, Brevort, and Les Cheneaux Islands
437 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2024

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
7 PM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 10 
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 55 mph.

* WHERE...Western Chippewa, Central Chippewa, Southeast 
  Chippewa, Western Mackinac and Eastern Mackinac Counties.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Widespread blowing
  snow will significantly reduce visibility and lead to drifting
  on roadways. Strong winds could cause tree damage and result in
  isolated power outages. Dangerous travel conditions will be
  possible. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

&&

$$

MIZ016-121745-
/O.EXT.KAPX.WS.W.0002.240112T1800Z-240114T0000Z/
Emmet-
Including the city of Petoskey
437 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2024

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
7 PM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 13
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 55 mph.

* WHERE...Emmet County.

* WHEN...From 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Widespread blowing
  snow will significantly reduce visibility and lead to drifting
  on roadways. Strong winds could cause tree damage and result in
  isolated power outages. Dangerous travel conditions will be
  possible. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

&&

$$

MIZ020-021-025>027-031>033-098-099-121745-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0002.240112T1800Z-240114T0000Z/
Leelanau-Antrim-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Manistee-Wexford-
Missaukee-Beaver Island and surrounding islands-Charlevoix-
Including the cities of Northport, Mancelona, Frankfort, 
Traverse City, Kalkaska, Manistee, Cadillac, Lake City, 
St. James, and Charlevoix
437 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2024

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 9 to 13
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 55 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of Northern Lower Michigan.

* WHEN...From 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Widespread blowing
  snow will significantly reduce visibility and lead to drifting
  on roadways. Strong winds could cause tree damage and result in
  isolated power outages. Dangerous travel conditions will be
  possible. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

&&

$$

MIZ034-041-042-121745-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0002.240112T2100Z-240114T0000Z/
Roscommon-Gladwin-Arenac-
Including the cities of Houghton Lake, Gladwin, and Standish
437 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2024

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 14
  inches. Lesser amounts around 6 inches possible near the
  immediate Lake Huron shoreline. Winds gusting as high as 55 
  mph.

* WHERE...Roscommon, Gladwin and Arenac Counties.

* WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Widespread blowing
  snow will significantly reduce visibility and lead to drifting
  on roadways. Strong winds could cause tree damage and result in
  isolated power outages. Dangerous travel conditions will be
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/gaylord
544 
WWUS43 KAPX 121945
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
245 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2024

MIZ017-018-024-030-036-097-130345-
/O.CON.KAPX.BZ.W.0001.240112T2200Z-240114T0000Z/
Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Alpena-Alcona-Iosco-
Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island-
Including the cities of Cheboygan, Rogers City, Alpena, 
Harrisville, Tawas City, and Mackinac Island
245 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2024

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of
  10 to 16 inches with locally higher amounts possible. Frequent 
  wind gusts of 35 to 50 mph this evening and tonight with 
  potential for 60 mph wind gusts, especially near the Lake Huron 
  shoreline.

* WHERE...Portions of Eastern Upper and Northern Lower Michigan.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Worst conditions expected this evening and tonight. 
  Travel could be very difficult to impossible during this time. 
  Widespread blowing snow is expected to lead to significantly 
  reduced visibilities for several hours. Significant drifting 
  may lead to some impassible secondary roadways. Strong winds 
  could cause tree damage and result in power outages. Dangerous 
  driving conditions are anticipated this evening and overnight, 
  making travel strongly discouraged.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Travel should be restricted to emergencies only. If you must
travel, have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded,
stay with your vehicle. 

&&

$$

MIZ022-023-028-029-035-130345-
/O.CON.KAPX.BZ.W.0001.240112T2200Z-240114T0000Z/
Otsego-Montmorency-Crawford-Oscoda-Ogemaw-
Including the cities of Gaylord, Atlanta, Grayling, Mio, 
and West Branch
245 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2024

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of
  10 to 15 inches with locally higher amounts possible. Frequent
  wind gusts of 35 to 50 mph expected this evening and tonight.

* WHERE...Otsego, Montmorency, Crawford, Oscoda and Ogemaw 
  Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Worst conditions expected this evening and tonight. 
  Travel could be very difficult to impossible during this time. 
  Widespread blowing snow is expected to lead to significantly 
  reduced visibilities for several hours. Significant drifting 
  may lead to some impassible secondary roadways. Strong winds 
  could cause tree damage and result in power outages. Dangerous 
  driving conditions are anticipated this evening and overnight, 
  making travel strongly discouraged.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Travel should be restricted to emergencies only. If you must
travel, have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded,
stay with your vehicle. 

&&

$$

MIZ086>088-095-096-130345-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0002.240113T0000Z-240114T0000Z/
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa-
Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac-
Including the cities of Paradise, Trout Lake, Rudyard, 
Sault Ste. Marie, Brimley, Kinross, Sugar Island, Detour Village,
Goetzville, Drummond Island, Engadine, Naubinway, Epoufette, 
St. Ignace, Brevort, and Les Cheneaux Islands
245 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2024

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and blowing snow expected. Total snow 
  accumulations of 5 to 10 inches. Winds gusting as high as 55 
  mph.

* WHERE...Western Chippewa, Central Chippewa, Southeast 
  Chippewa, Western Mackinac and Eastern Mackinac Counties.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Widespread blowing 
  snow will significantly reduce visibility and lead to drifting 
  on roadways. Strong winds could cause tree damage and result 
  in isolated power outages. Dangerous travel conditions will be 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

&&

$$

MIZ016-020-021-025>027-031>033-098-099-130345-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-240114T0000Z/
Emmet-Leelanau-Antrim-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Manistee-
Wexford-Missaukee-Beaver Island and surrounding islands-
Charlevoix-
Including the cities of Petoskey, Northport, Mancelona, 
Frankfort, Traverse City, Kalkaska, Manistee, Cadillac, 
Lake City, St. James, and Charlevoix
245 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2024

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and blowing snow. Additional snow 
  accumulations of 8 to 13 inches. Winds gusting as high as 55 
  mph.

* WHERE...Portions of Northern Lower Michigan.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Widespread blowing 
  snow will significantly reduce visibility and lead to drifting 
  on roadways. Strong winds could cause tree damage and result 
  in isolated power outages. Dangerous travel conditions will be 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

&&

$$

MIZ034-041-042-130345-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0002.240112T2100Z-240114T0000Z/
Roscommon-Gladwin-Arenac-
Including the cities of Houghton Lake, Gladwin, and Standish
245 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2024

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and blowing snow expected. Total snow
  accumulations of 8 to 14 inches. Lesser amounts around 6 inches
  possible near the immediate Lake Huron shoreline. Winds gusting
  as high as 55 mph.

* WHERE...Roscommon, Gladwin and Arenac Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Widespread blowing 
  snow will significantly reduce visibility and lead to drifting 
  on roadways. Strong winds could cause tree damage and result 
  in isolated power outages. Dangerous travel conditions will be 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/gaylord
868 
WWUS43 KAPX 130255
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
955 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2024

MIZ017-018-024-030-036-097-131200-
/O.CON.KAPX.BZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-240114T0000Z/
Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Alpena-Alcona-Iosco-
Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island-
Including the cities of Cheboygan, Rogers City, Alpena, 
Harrisville, Tawas City, and Mackinac Island
955 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2024

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Additional snow
  accumulations of 4 to 6 inches, resulting in total snow 
  accumulations of 8 to 14 inches. Frequent wind gusts of 35 to 45
  mph through tonight, especially near the Lake Huron shoreline.

* WHERE...Portions of Eastern Upper and Northern Lower Michigan.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Widespread blowing snow is expected to lead to
  significantly reduced visibilities for several hours.
  Significant drifting may lead to some impassible secondary
  roadways. Strong winds could cause tree damage and result in
  power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Travel should be restricted to emergencies only. If you must
travel, have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded,
stay with your vehicle.

&&

$$

MIZ022-023-028-029-035-131200-
/O.CON.KAPX.BZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-240114T0000Z/
Otsego-Montmorency-Crawford-Oscoda-Ogemaw-
Including the cities of Gaylord, Atlanta, Grayling, Mio, 
and West Branch
955 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2024

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Additional snow
  accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, resulting in total snow
  accumulations of 8 to 12 inches. Frequent wind gusts of 35 to 40
  mph expected through tonight.

* WHERE...Otsego, Montmorency, Crawford, Oscoda and Ogemaw 
  Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible during
  this time. Widespread blowing snow is expected to lead to
  significantly reduced visibilities for several hours.
  Significant drifting may lead to some impassible secondary
  roadways.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Travel should be restricted to emergencies only. If you must
travel, have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded,
stay with your vehicle.

&&

$$

MIZ086>088-095-096-131200-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-240114T0000Z/
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa-
Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac-
Including the cities of Paradise, Trout Lake, Rudyard, 
Sault Ste. Marie, Brimley, Kinross, Sugar Island, Detour Village,
Goetzville, Drummond Island, Engadine, Naubinway, Epoufette, 
St. Ignace, Brevort, and Les Cheneaux Islands
955 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2024

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and blowing snow expected. Total snow
  accumulations of 5 to 10 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 
  mph.

* WHERE...Western Chippewa, Central Chippewa, Southeast 
  Chippewa, Western Mackinac and Eastern Mackinac Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Widespread blowing 
  snow will significantly reduce visibility and lead to drifting 
  on roadways. Strong winds could cause tree damage and result 
  in isolated power outages. Dangerous travel conditions will be 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

&&

$$

MIZ016-020-021-025>027-031>033-098-099-131200-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-240114T0000Z/
Emmet-Leelanau-Antrim-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Manistee-
Wexford-Missaukee-Beaver Island and surrounding islands-
Charlevoix-
Including the cities of Petoskey, Northport, Mancelona, 
Frankfort, Traverse City, Kalkaska, Manistee, Cadillac, 
Lake City, St. James, and Charlevoix
955 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2024

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and blowing snow. Additional snow
  accumulations of 8 to 13 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 
  mph.

* WHERE...Portions of Northern Lower Michigan.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Widespread blowing 
  snow will significantly reduce visibility and lead to drifting 
  on roadways. Strong winds could cause tree damage and result 
  in isolated power outages. Dangerous travel conditions will be 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

&&

$$

MIZ034-041-042-131200-
/O.CON.KAPX.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-240114T0000Z/
Roscommon-Gladwin-Arenac-
Including the cities of Houghton Lake, Gladwin, and Standish
955 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2024

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and blowing snow expected. Additional snow
  accumulations of 2 to 4 inches, resulting in total snow
  accumulations of 6 to 12 inches. Lesser amounts around 6 inches
  possible near the immediate Lake Huron shoreline. Winds gusting
  as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Roscommon, Gladwin and Arenac Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Widespread blowing 
  snow will significantly reduce visibility and lead to drifting 
  on roadways. Strong winds could cause tree damage and result 
  in isolated power outages. Dangerous travel conditions will be 
  possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/gaylord
385 
WWUS43 KAPX 130947
WSWAPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
447 AM EST Sat Jan 13 2024

MIZ023-024-029-030-035-036-131700-
/O.CAN.KAPX.BZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-240114T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.WW.Y.0002.240113T0947Z-240113T1700Z/
Montmorency-Alpena-Oscoda-Alcona-Ogemaw-Iosco-
Including the cities of Atlanta, Alpena, Mio, Harrisville, 
West Branch, and Tawas City
447 AM EST Sat Jan 13 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...
...BLIZZARD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of up to two inches.

* WHERE...Portions of Northern Lower Michigan.

* WHEN...Until noon EST today.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Patchy blowing snow
  could significantly reduce visibility across open areas at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

MIZ097-131700-
/O.CAN.KAPX.BZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-240114T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.WW.Y.0002.240113T0947Z-240113T1700Z/
Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island-
Including the city of Mackinac Island
447 AM EST Sat Jan 13 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...
...BLIZZARD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of up to two 
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island.

* WHEN...Until noon EST today.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Patchy blowing snow
  could significantly reduce visibility across open areas at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

MIZ017-018-022-028-131800-
/O.CAN.KAPX.BZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-240114T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.WW.Y.0002.240113T0947Z-240114T1200Z/
Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Otsego-Crawford-
Including the cities of Cheboygan, Rogers City, Gaylord, 
and Grayling
447 AM EST Sat Jan 13 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY...
...BLIZZARD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches.
  Localized amounts of up to 10 inches may be possible. Winds 
  gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Cheboygan, Presque Isle, Otsego and Crawford Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult at times, especially on
  secondary roadways. Patchy blowing snow could significantly
  reduce visibility across open areas at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

MIZ034-041-042-131700-
/O.CAN.KAPX.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-240114T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.WW.Y.0002.240113T0947Z-240113T1700Z/
Roscommon-Gladwin-Arenac-
Including the cities of Houghton Lake, Gladwin, and Standish
447 AM EST Sat Jan 13 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of up to two inches.

* WHERE...Roscommon, Gladwin and Arenac Counties.

* WHEN...Until noon EST today.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Patchy blowing snow
  could significantly reduce visibility across open areas at times.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

MIZ088-095-096-098-131700-
/O.CAN.KAPX.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-240114T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.WW.Y.0002.240113T0947Z-240113T1700Z/
Southeast Chippewa-Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac-
Beaver Island and surrounding islands-
Including the cities of Detour Village, Goetzville, 
Drummond Island, Engadine, Naubinway, Epoufette, St. Ignace, 
Brevort, Les Cheneaux Islands, and St. James
447 AM EST Sat Jan 13 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of up to two inches.

* WHERE...Southeast Chippewa, Western Mackinac and Eastern 
  Mackinac Counties, and Beaver Island and surrounding islands.

* WHEN...Until noon EST today.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Patchy blowing snow
  could significantly reduce visibility across open areas at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

MIZ016-020-021-025>027-031>033-099-131800-
/O.CAN.KAPX.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-240114T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.WW.Y.0002.240113T0947Z-240114T1200Z/
Emmet-Leelanau-Antrim-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Manistee-
Wexford-Missaukee-Charlevoix-
Including the cities of Petoskey, Northport, Mancelona, 
Frankfort, Traverse City, Kalkaska, Manistee, Cadillac, 
Lake City, and Charlevoix
447 AM EST Sat Jan 13 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches.
  Localized amounts of up to 10 inches may be possible. Winds 
  gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of Northern Lower Michigan.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult at times, especially on
  secondary roadways. Patchy blowing snow could significantly
  reduce visibility across open areas at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

MIZ086-087-131800-
/O.CAN.KAPX.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-240114T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.WW.Y.0002.240113T0947Z-240114T1200Z/
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-
Including the cities of Paradise, Trout Lake, Rudyard, 
Sault Ste. Marie, Brimley, Kinross, and Sugar Island
447 AM EST Sat Jan 13 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches.
  Localized amounts of up to 8 inches may be possible. Winds 
  gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Western Chippewa and Central Chippewa Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult at times, especially on
  secondary roadways. Patchy blowing snow could significantly
  reduce visibility across open areas at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/gaylord

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this winter storm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Gaylord, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this winter storm warning went out at Jan 11, 12:22 PM EST, 3 hours 39 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 11, 12:22 PM EST, 3 hours 39 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1222 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2024

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1220 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2024

Just some minor tweaks to this afternoon's pops as ongoing light
snow continues across parts of northern lower Michigan early
this afternoon. This should largely exit over the next several
hours.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Pattern Synopsis:

A subtle shortwave embedded within much broader troughing will
progress over the Ohio Valley today, providing enough forcing aloft
to support a weak cyclone that will work across the Great Lakes.
Ridging then looks to slide over the Great Lakes tonight,
temporarily building surface high pressure across northern portions
of the region.

Forecast Details:

Mainly light snow will spread from west to east across the area
through this morning, primarily across areas south of the bridge.
Snowfall totals by this afternoon are expected to range between 1-2"
for most areas of northern lower Michigan. Locally higher amounts
near 3" will be possible, especially across areas near the Lake
Michigan shoreline. Enhanced snowfall will be possible in the
vicinity of a surface boundary draped near M-68 back west over far
northern Lake Michigan, and could bring aforementioned locally
higher amounts as the boundary slides from northwest to southeast
over land this afternoon. Although accumulations of only a few
inches at most are anticipated, locally hazardous travel conditions
cannot be ruled out -- especially in areas of falling snow. Snow
chances will begin to diminish later in the afternoon and evening as
the weak system moves further east of the Great Lakes and high
pressure builds in. Otherwise, temperatures in the mid 20s to low
30s are expected for most areas today. Overnight lows look to cool
into the upper teens and low 20s across northern lower. Colder lows
in the single digits and teens are anticipated across eastern upper
where cold air drainage is expected to flow in from Ontario.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Pattern Synopsis:

After the quick round of snow today, all eyes will turn to the
Friday/Saturday timeframe. Very impressive dynamics provided by a
negative-tilt trough punching from the lower Mississippi Valley into
the southern Great Lakes combined with a coupled upper jet will lead
to rapid deepening of a cyclone set to trek from the southern Great
Plains northeast across lower Michigan in the Friday night -
Saturday timeframe.

Putting this forecast system in context: The forecast cyclone is
expected to deepen to around 975mb as it works across Michigan. The
North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS), consisting of 52
ensemble members from the GEFS (31 members) and Canadian (21),
depicts this forecast cyclone strength as the lowest MSLP in a 30
year climatology period (1979-2009) centered around the middle
of January. Not only would this be the strongest cyclone
forecast in that period, GEFS members compared against
reforecasts of past events at the same lead time also show this
as the strongest cyclone forecast in that period -- all to say
that this is a nod to the rarity and high end potential of the
current forecast system for Friday night into Saturday.

Forecast Details:

Confidence continues to increase in a rare, high impact winter storm
across Michigan Friday afternoon into Saturday. Very good agreement
in the vast amount of deterministic and ensemble guidance has
persisted through the latest forecast cycle, taking the
aforementioned cyclone through the vicinity of Saginaw Bay/Thumb
area. Forecast snowfall amounts continue to be nothing short of
impressive. While deterministic guidance has consistently put
out eye-catching totals for numerous consecutive runs,
Ensemble/probabilistic guidance is a main factor in increased
confidence. Over the duration of our current winter storm watch
(1 PM Friday - 1 PM Saturday), there are high probabilities
(over 70%) for accumulations of at least 8" for most of northern
Michigan, medium to high chances (over 40%) for at least 12" of
snow along and east of I-75, and even low chances (10-40%) for
at least 18" of snow across this same area for a 24 hour period.

While potential snowfall amounts are impressive, perhaps the most
impactful portion of this winter storm will be strong winds.
Sustained winds of 20-30 mph with frequent gusts of 35-50+ mph are
expected Friday evening into Saturday. Highest snowfall rates will
be most likely Friday evening and Friday night as strongest forcing
works northward across the state, driving snowfall rates of 1-2" per
hour or greater. When high snowfall rates are combined with
aforementioned wind gusts, whiteout/blizzard conditions may be
possible across portions of northern Michigan for a period of time
Friday evening/night.

Blowing and drifting snow for an extended period of time Friday
evening into Saturday will create dangerous travel conditions as
roadways -- especially backroads -- will be difficult to maintain.
Snow load from new and recent snowfall combined with aforementioned
winds may lead to power outages. Those planning travel across the
state Friday evening and Saturday, especially across northern lower
Michigan, should take all of the above into consideration and
closely monitor the latest forecast for updates as locations of
heaviest snow/worst impacts may change as event time approaches.
Accumulating lake effect snow is expected to settle in on Saturday
into the rest of the weekend as the system departs northeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Pattern Forecast: Low pressure over the Georgian Bay/Ontario region
will continue to deepen and move northeast to Hudson Bay this
Sunday. Midlevel longwave troughing spanning across North America
will push cold Arctic air into the CONUS. Current lake
temperatures are well above average for January.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Accumulating lake effect snow next week: Lake temperatures in the
upper 30s and low 40s combined with cold northwest flow will allow
the LES regime to begin once the cyclone departs the Great
Lakes region. Continued accumulating snowfall for parts of
northern lower and eastern upper expected. Still too early to
give snowfall amounts of locations with the best likelihood of
impactful weather, but we will definitely continue to monitor
this feature with future guidance.

Cold Arctic air move into the region: Temperatures expected to drop
well below climatological average heading into mid January. This will
be a sudden shock from such a mild first half of winter.
Temperatures will drop after the cyclone moves towards the
northeast, Starting on Sunday. Coldest periods will be overnight
Sunday into Monday and again for night time lows dipping near or
below zero.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Largely MVFR flight conditions are expected to continue across
northern Michigan through the TAF period. A few lingering light
snow showers possible this afternoon before mainly dry conditions
are anticipated overnight. Light winds tonight turn out of the
east Friday morning and become increasingly gusty in advance of
a winter storm set to impact northern Michigan starting as early
as late Friday morning, but more so Friday afternoon/night.

&&

.MARINE...
Strong winds are expected over the Great Lakes Friday through
Saturday as an impressive storm system crosses the region. Gale
force winds are likely across all nearshore waters. Storm force wind
gusts will also be possible across most northern Lake Huron and Lake
Michigan nearshore waters Friday night into Saturday morning.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday
     afternoon for MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-097-099.
     Winter Storm Watch from Friday evening through Saturday
     evening for MIZ086>088-095-096-098.
MARINE...Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday morning for
     LHZ345-347>349.
     Gale Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday morning for
     LHZ346.
     Gale Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday morning for
     LMZ341.
     Storm Watch from Friday evening through Saturday morning for
     LMZ323-342-344>346.
     Gale Watch from Friday evening through Saturday evening for
     LSZ321-322.

&&

UPDATE...MJG
NEAR TERM...DJC
SHORT TERM...DJC/SJC
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...MJG
MARINE...DJC
Hazardous weather outlook, Jan 11, 4:57 AM EST, 11 hours 4 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
457 AM EST Thu Jan 11 2024

MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-086>088-095>099-121000-
Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Leelanau-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency-
Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona-
Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac-
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa-
Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac-
Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island-
Beaver Island and surrounding islands-Charlevoix-
457 AM EST Thu Jan 11 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for Eastern Upper Michigan and
Northern Lower Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

A high impact winter storm is expected across northern Michigan
Friday night and Saturday. Please see the latest Winter Storm
Watch for additional details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report snowfall amounts to the National
Weather Service. Reports may be made one of three ways:

Online:    weather.gov/gaylord
Facebook: facebook.com/nwsgaylord
Twitter: twitter.com/nwsgaylord

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-121000-
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
457 AM EST Thu Jan 11 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for the northern Michigan
nearshore waters of Lake Huron, Lake Michigan and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Gale force winds are expected Friday night and Saturday across
our nearshore waters. Storm force wind gusts are possible across
portions of northern Lake Huron and Lake Michigan Friday night
and Saturday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Gaylord, MI issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jan 11, 4:52 AM ESTGale WatchAPX24 hr
Jan 11, 4:52 AM ESTStorm WatchAPX24 hr
Jan 11, 3:42 PM ESTStorm WarningAPX37 hr

Nearby

Winter Storm Warnings in Michigan, 2024Every winter storm warning in 2024

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.