High Wind Warning 6, NWS Juneau, AK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
456 AM AKST Sat Jan 27 2024

.SHORT TERM.../Through Saturday night/ Warm and wet conditions
continue across the panhandle. Mid 40s are widespread for
temperatures while light rain is common. The strong southerly
winds associated with the warm front finally reached Skagway and
Haines early this morning. Temperatures at both places have shot
up into the mid 40s, and winds did a quick switch to southerly and
increased rapidly with Skagway in particular gusting to 60 mph
already as of 4 am. The only places still cold enough for snow at
lower elevations in the panhandle are the Haines Highway (31 at
Chilkat River bridge and Haines Border Customs) and White Pass (31
degrees). Winter storm warning and winter weather advisory for
both roads remains up at this time.

Warm southerly winds will continue to produce warm temperatures
and rain for the next 24 hours even as we get a slight break
between system for today and this evening. Rain fall amounts will
be heaviest over the northern panhandle as, faced with upslope
flow, terrain influences will enhance precip. Rain starts to
increase again late tonight over the entire area as the next
trough moves in from the S. Only places that will see snow instead
of rain will be the Haines Highway (this morning only) and White
Pass (snow persisting, though some rain could mix in even there
if temperatures warm up enough).

As for winds, the highest winds will be this morning and late
tonight. Strong southerly winds behind the warm front this morning
are expected to weaken this morning with the Skagway and Haines
areas being the last to diminish. Marine areas are seeing wide
spread small craft wind conditions (winds to 25 to 30 kt, and seas
reaching 13 ft in the gulf) this morning, but should diminish to
20 kt later this afternoon. Expect winds to increase again to
small craft conditions late tonight in the inner channels and
gulf waters (min gale for the outside waters just off
Baranof Island) as the next trough moves into the area. Seas in
the gulf are expected to remain high (12 to 15 feet) through the
period with persistent south winds.

.LONG TERM...For the first part of the long term forecast, we
will start out in the middle of a relative lull for precipitation
with rainfall amounts slowing during the day on Sunday. This will
be ahead of the next wave that looks to move up from the south
bringing the second band of heavy precipitation to the area. This
second band of heavy precipitation looks to impact the southern
panhandle Sunday evening. Some of the heaviest precipitation
totals right now appear to be along the northern panhandle as the
flow direction will favor moisture transport through the Inner
Channels before running into the Coast Mountains. Winds with this
wave could reach High Wind criteria for Sunday. As such, a high
wind watch has been issued for the southern panhandle for when
this wave comes ashore.

After this system for Monday, the active weather looks to continue
as onshore flow provides moisture for the area so rain and some snow
are expected to continue. Temperatures look try and cool down some
from the very warm temperatures experienced earlier in the week as
cold air from the western side of the state tries to move to the
east with the low. This should allow for the return of snow to some
areas that were not seeing snow before. The next impactful system
looks to move into the area Wednesday bringing more rain and wind to
the panhandle. With the cooler temperatures trying to creep back
into the northern panhandle, more areas should see snow. Beyond this,
we look to return to an outflow pattern for the start of the weekend
as high pressure over Interior Alaska starts to shift to the east
and amplifying over the Yukon.

&&

.AVIATION...High surface winds and wind shear for many SE AK
locations will be main aviation issue today and into the weekend.
A first front passes early second moves in later Saturday with
another round of increased winds. Freezing levels continue to
rise over the north with precip mainly as rain. In addition to
the increasing winds with the next wave CIG and VIS reduce as
well.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from this evening through late tonight for AKZ317.
     Winter Storm Warning until 9 PM AKST this evening for AKZ318.
     Strong Wind until noon AKST today for AKZ318.
     Winter Weather Advisory until noon AKST today for AKZ319.
     Strong Wind until 9 AM AKST this morning for AKZ319-325.
     Strong Wind until 6 AM AKST early this morning for AKZ323.
     High Wind Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning for
     AKZ328-330-332.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ012-643-644-651-663-664-671.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-013-022-031>036-053-641-642-652-
     661-662-672.

&&

SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM....SF
AVIATION...PRB

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