Gale Warning 45, NWS Juneau, AK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
259 PM AKST Fri Jan 26 2024

.SHORT TERM...The first in the series of lows and warm fronts is
tracking northward across the region through Friday night. The
expected wind shift to the south behind the front is happening
slower/later over the central inner channels today, but still
expect the southerly surge of warm wind to reach the northern
inner channels around midnight. This will cause snow and freezing
rain observed in the Haines and Skagway areas to change to all
rain near sea level followed by a continued warming trend up the
highway through Saturday. A winter weather advisory remains in
effect for Haines and a warning for the upper portion of the
Klondike Highway. Elsewhere, rainfall will have periods of
moderate to heavy rates through the night.

Upper level winds are S-SWLY and directed at the panhandle. This
pattern will continue with smaller jet streaks moving through. As
the surface low weakens over the north central gulf Saturday
morning the plume of moisture will remain connected to the next
system with greatest rates staying over the Yakutat area Saturday.
With this, models are showing a distinct "lull" between waves over
the rest of the region Saturday.

.LONG TERM...For the first part of the long term forecast, we
will start out in the middle of a relative lull for precipitation
with rainfall amounts slowing during the day on Sunday. This will
be ahead of the next wave that looks to move up from the south
bringing the second band of heavy precipitation to the area. This
second band of heavy precipitation looks to impact the southern
panhandle Sunday evening. Some of the heaviest precipitation
totals right now appear to be along the northern panhandle as the
flow direction will favor moisture transport through the Inner
Channels before running into the Coast Mountains. Winds with this
wave could reach High Wind criteria for Sunday. As such, a high
wind watch has been issued for the southern panhandle for when
this wave comes ashore.

After this system for Monday, the active weather looks to continue
as onshore flow provides moisture for the area so rain and some snow
are expected to continue. Temperatures look try and cool down some
from the very warm temperatures experienced earlier in the week as
cold air from the western side of the state tries to move to the
east with the low. This should allow for the return of snow to some
areas that were not seeing snow before. The next impactful system
looks to move into the area Wednesday bringing more rain and wind to
the panhandle. With the cooler temperatures trying to creep back
into the northern panhandle, more areas should see snow. Beyond this,
we look to return to an outflow pattern for the start of the weekend
as high pressure over Interior Alaska starts to shift to the east
and amplifying over the Yukon.

&&

.AVIATION...Wind shear, low clouds, rain, and snow is the name of
the game for this TAF issuance. A front is slowly making its way
northward across the panhandle. Across the north, low VIS will be
removed as the snow transitions to rain for Haines and Skagway
this evening. However, low clouds look to stay around for most
areas in the inner channels. This makes for some bouncy CIGs
across the northern half of the panhandle and relatively
stratiform MVFR to IFR for the southern half. Unfortunately, look
for these conditions to continue to deteriorate through the night
with increased wind shear and 2000 ft winds around 40-50 knots.
Conditions look to improve south to north towards the morning
hours tomorrow before the next wave.

&&

.MARINE...Each new low that tracks northward across the gulf will
have stronger winds. Small craft level winds with the first system
builds to gale force with the second and finally storm force for
late Sunday night into Monday. Strongest winds expected over the
inner channels with these systems is likely to be with the Sunday
night-Monday period where Clarence Strait was increased to gale
force.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind Saturday afternoon for AKZ317.
     Winter Storm Warning until 9 PM AKST Saturday for AKZ318.
     Winter Weather Advisory until noon AKST Saturday for AKZ319.
     Strong Wind Saturday morning for AKZ319.
     Strong Wind from late tonight through Saturday morning for
     AKZ325.
     Strong Wind until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ328-330-332.
     High Wind Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning for
     AKZ328-330-332.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ644-671.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-013-021-022-031>036-053-641>643-
     651-652-661>664-672.

&&

SHORT TERM...Ferrin
LONG TERM....SF
AVIATION...NC

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