Winter Storm Warning 13, NWS Fairbanks, AK

913 
WWAK41 PAFG 131342
WSWNSB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
442 AM AKST Tue Feb 13 2024

AKZ801-140100-
/O.CON.PAFG.WS.W.0013.240213T1800Z-240214T1500Z/
Western Arctic Coast-
Including Point Hope, Point Lay, and Cape Lisburne
442 AM AKST Tue Feb 13 2024

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING
TO 6 AM AKST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations 
  of up to 4 inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph.

* WHERE...Western Arctic Coast.

* WHEN...From 9 AM Tuesday to 6 AM AKST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult. Areas of blowing snow 
  could significantly reduce visibility. Snow drifts will form.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions are expected or occurring. This will make travel very
difficult or impossible.

The latest road conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

727 
WWAK41 PAFG 132352
WSWNSB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
252 PM AKST Tue Feb 13 2024

AKZ801-140700-
/O.EXT.PAFG.WS.W.0013.000000T0000Z-240215T0000Z/
Western Arctic Coast-
Including Point Hope, Point Lay, and Cape Lisburne
252 PM AKST Tue Feb 13 2024

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM AKST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions at times. Total snow accumulations 
  of up to 4 inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph.

* WHERE...Western Arctic Coast. Worst conditions near Point Hope
  and Cape Lisburne.

* WHEN...Until 3 PM AKST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult. Areas of blowing snow 
  could significantly reduce visibility. Snow drifts will form.



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions are expected or occurring. This will make travel very
difficult or impossible.


&&

$$

AKZ802-140700-
/O.NEW.PAFG.WW.Y.0042.240213T2352Z-240215T0000Z/
Northwest Arctic Coast-
Including Wainwright and Atqasuk
252 PM AKST Tue Feb 13 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM AKST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow. Additional snow accumulations of
  up to one inch. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Northwest Arctic Coast.

* WHEN...Until 3 PM AKST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 


&&

$$

235 
WWAK41 PAFG 140002
WSWNSB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
302 PM AKST Tue Feb 13 2024

AKZ801-141500-
/O.CON.PAFG.WS.W.0013.000000T0000Z-240215T0000Z/
Western Arctic Coast-
Including Point Hope, Point Lay, and Cape Lisburne
302 PM AKST Tue Feb 13 2024

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM AKST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions at times. Total snow accumulations 
  of up to 4 inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph.

* WHERE...Western Arctic Coast. Worst conditions near Point Hope 
  and Cape Lisburne.

* WHEN...Until 3 PM AKST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult. Areas of blowing snow
  could significantly reduce visibility. Snow drifts will form.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions are expected or occurring. This will make travel very
difficult or impossible.

&&

$$

AKZ802-141500-
/O.CON.PAFG.WW.Y.0042.000000T0000Z-240215T0000Z/
Northwest Arctic Coast-
Including Wainwright and Atqasuk
302 PM AKST Tue Feb 13 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM AKST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow. Additional snow accumulations of 
  up to one inch. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Northwest Arctic Coast.

* WHEN...Until 3 PM AKST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

&&

$$

273 
WWAK41 PAFG 141020
WSWNSB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
120 AM AKST Wed Feb 14 2024

AKZ801-150000-
/O.CON.PAFG.WS.W.0013.000000T0000Z-240215T0000Z/
Western Arctic Coast-
Including Point Hope, Point Lay, and Cape Lisburne
120 AM AKST Wed Feb 14 2024

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM AKST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions at times. Total snow accumulations 
  of up to 4 inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph.

* WHERE...Western Arctic Coast. Worst conditions near Point Hope 
  and Cape Lisburne.

* WHEN...Until 3 PM AKST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult. Areas of blowing snow 
  could significantly reduce visibility. Snow drifts will form.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions are expected or occurring. This will make travel very
difficult or impossible.

&&

$$

AKZ802-150000-
/O.CON.PAFG.WW.Y.0042.000000T0000Z-240215T0000Z/
Northwest Arctic Coast-
Including Wainwright and Atqasuk
120 AM AKST Wed Feb 14 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM AKST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow. Visibility one half mile or less
  at times. Additional snow accumulations of up to one inch. 
  Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Northwest Arctic Coast.

* WHEN...Until 3 PM AKST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing
  snow could significantly reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

&&

$$

164 
WWAK41 PAFG 142346
WSWNSB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
246 PM AKST Wed Feb 14 2024

AKZ801-150600-
/O.EXT.PAFG.WS.W.0013.000000T0000Z-240215T0600Z/
Western Arctic Coast-
Including Point Hope, Point Lay, and Cape Lisburne
246 PM AKST Wed Feb 14 2024

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions at times. Total snow accumulations 
  of up to 4 inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph.

* WHERE...Western Arctic Coast. Worst conditions near Point Hope 
  and Cape Lisburne.

* WHEN...Until 9 PM AKST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult. Areas of blowing snow 
  could significantly reduce visibility. Snow drifts will form.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for blowing snow means severe winter
weather conditions are expected or occurring. This will make
travel very difficult or impossible. 

The latest road conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

AKZ802-150600-
/O.EXT.PAFG.WW.Y.0042.000000T0000Z-240215T0600Z/
Northwest Arctic Coast-
Including Wainwright and Atqasuk
246 PM AKST Wed Feb 14 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow. Visibility one half mile or less 
  at times. Additional snow accumulations of up to one inch. 
  Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Northwest Arctic Coast.

* WHEN...Until 9 PM AKST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing 
  snow could significantly reduce visibility.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use caution while traveling, especially in open areas. 

The latest road conditions can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

561 
WWAK41 PAFG 150507
WSWNSB

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
807 PM AKST Wed Feb 14 2024

AKZ801-150615-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WS.W.0013.000000T0000Z-240215T0600Z/
Western Arctic Coast-
Including Point Hope, Point Lay, and Cape Lisburne
807 PM AKST Wed Feb 14 2024

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

$$

AKZ802-150615-
/O.CAN.PAFG.WW.Y.0042.000000T0000Z-240215T0600Z/
Northwest Arctic Coast-
Including Wainwright and Atqasuk
807 PM AKST Wed Feb 14 2024

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

$$

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
236 PM AKST Mon Feb 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

It's the calm before the storm today across most of the state
today as the well anticipated area of low pressure pushes north
into Bristol Bay. Winds have been gusting up to 50 mph already
through the Alaska range passes and will be increasing this
evening and through tomorrow. High Wind Warnings for the Alaska
range passes are now in effect through Wednesday afternoon where
gusts to 70 mph or higher are expected. Wind Advisory is in effect
for the same time frame for Delta Junction where gusts to 60 mph
are expected. Strong southerly winds will also reach the passes of
the Brooks Range with gusts over 45 mph possible for higher
elevations on the Dalton Hwy. Winter Storm Warnings are in effect
through for the YK Delta and Western Interior along the Nulato
Hills through late Tuesday night for heavy snow accumulations and
blowing snow as this low pushes northward along the West Coast of
Alaska. There is potential for mixed precip and surface
temperatures rising above freezing along the West Coast tonight
into Tuesday before colder air advects in Tuesday night, causing
additional impacts and travel concerns. Less active weather for
the interior; however strong downsloping winds will lead to strong
inversions and surface temperatures well above normal in the 20s
and 30s through the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Analysis and Model Discussion...

Beginning Monday and persisting through the week, strong upper
ridging builds over Alaska with a closed 560dm high centered over
Yakutat. The ridge will bring clear skies, much above normal
temperatures (potentially above freezing), and strong inversions
to the central and eastern Interior and even north to the Arctic
Coast east of Utqiagvik. Along the West Coast, a quasi
atmospheric river type pattern sets up on the western edge of the
ridge Monday evening through Wednesday with an intense S-N 130 kt
upper jet extending from around 30N to the Arctic Coast, pumping
in copious amounts of moisture northward. Guidance is coming into
better agreement on the track of the 985mb surface low moving
north from the AK Peninsula to Hooper Bay then to the Chukchi Sea
by Wednesday morning. Today's runs continue the trend of shifting
the low a little further east and also maintaining its intensity
as it tracks into the Chukchi sea with a stronger W-E thermal
gradient. In the wake of the low, a strong baroclinic
zone/thermal gradient and S-N boundary sets up across the Western
Interior separating warmer air and SE flow from arctic air and SW
flow. This boundary will be the main focus for heavy precipitation
Monday night through Wednesday as shortwaves ride up along it.
While there are still some model differences regarding exact track
and timing of shortwaves riding up the boundary, high enough
confidence exists in this pattern setting up that Winter Storm
Warnings and SPS have been issued for much of the Western Interior
and Nulato Hills. There may be P-type issues initially,
especially in the YK Delta and the Western Interior through
Tuesday as warmer air surges over the colder airmass at the
surface. Potential is there for highs to reach the mid 30s in the
YK Delta, Western Interior and potentially northward to the
Western Brooks Range and Kotzebue. Precipitation may transition to
a mix or plain rain Tuesday before transitioning back to snow
Tuesday night and Wednesday as colder air pushes in from the west.

Additional weather concerns will be periods of high southerly
winds through Alaska Range Passes, Tanana Valley Jet winds at
Delta Junction, and blowing snow near Eagle Summit. Guidance
indicates nearly a 10-20mb low level pressure gradient across the
Alaska range with 850-700mb flow up to 75 kts Monday evening
through at least Thursday, setting the stage for a long duration
Chinook wind event with multiple strong wind surges. Highest winds
may gust over 70 mph at times at higher elevation along the road
system. High Wind Warnings and Wnd Advisories are in effect
through Wednesday; however strong to high winds may persist longer
into the end of the week. This event looks to be much stronger
than the strong winds which occurred over the last couple days, so
higher confidence exists in high winds occuring.

Central and Eastern Interior...

Quiet weather and well above normal temperatures under mostly
sunny skies are expected for this week. Areas with strongest
downsloping and at higher elevations have the best chance at
seeing temperatures above freezing during the day. Winds through
Alaska Range Passes will be the exception to the quiet pattern,
and multiple periods of gusts as high as 75 mph are likely through
Thursday morning. Winds today have been increasing to 40 to 50 mph
in the Alaska range passes and will continue to increase tonight
to 60 to 70 mph. Winds may drop off at times over the next few
days, then resurges again as the gradient tightens with passing
shortwaves to the west. Tanana Valley Jet winds at Delta Junction
will also be quite strong through this period with gusts to 60 mph
expected, where the Wind Advisory is in effect. Summits of the
Dalton and Steese Highways will also see winds Monday night and
Tuesday, but with temperatures well above normal, expecting
minimal blowing snow. Will go ahead and issue a Special Weather
Statement for the passes along the Dalton Hwy for strong winds
since confidence in blowing snow is not high enough for a Winter
Weather Advisory.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

While temperatures are near zero today, much warmer conditons
expected for the North Slope as strong downsloping off the Brooks
Range and offshore flow will result in highs rising into the 20s
up to the Arctic Coast by tomorrow. South winds through Brooks
Range Passes will gust to 45 mph Tuesday through Wednesday. South
winds to 25 mph will reach the coast from Utqiagvik east by
Tuesday night which will cause clearing skies. As mentioned above,
lower confidence in low visibility due to blowing snow for the
Brooks Range with such a sharp rise in temperatures. Nonetheless,
it will be windy through Brooks Range passes midweek, potentially
persisting into Thursday.

West Coast and Western Interior...

As mentioned above, a strong 985mb low pushes into Bristol Bay
tonight then rides up the West Coast into the Chukchi sea while
maintaining its strength through Wednesday. Models continue to
struggle with the thermodynamics of this system as it runs into
the ridge, while also pulling cold air into the longwave trough
from Siberia. With the slight eastward shift in the track, there
will likely be a stronger E-W thermal gradient from downsloping
winds to the east and cold air advection from Siberia to the west.
This strong thermal gradient may help the low keep it's intensity
as it progresses northward. Models have not been handling this
well as there have been large run to run differences in the low's
strength. With all this in mind, confidence in mixed precipitation
is lower with the set up more favorable for precipitation to fall
as snow rather than as freezing rain, so have limited ice amounts
to around one tenth of an inch mainly from Koyuk south. Snowfall
totals will range from one to two inches across most of the area
to 3-6 inches near Anvik and from Nome east along the coast, to
around a foot near Kaltag and north of Ambler. Snow continues
through Wednesday night from Unalakleet south as another system
continues to pull moisture northward as an atmospheric river.
Could see an additional 4-6 inches of snow south of Unalakleet
through Thursday morning. Watching Kotzebue as well for
potentially accumulating snow Tuesday with such strong southerly
flow and moisture advection north. Near blizzard conditions
possible for Kotzebue with strong E to SE flow coming out of
interior gaps. Despite some downsloping component to the wind
there, conditions may deteriorate quickly with low visibility and
blowing snow at times. Expanding the Winter Storm Warning to include
Kotezbue, along and north of the Kobuk River, and then along the
coast around Kivalina due to heavy precipitation and strong winds
leading to low visibility. Also adding Winter Weather Advisories
from Golovin to Unalakleet where visibility may significantly drop
due to falling and blowing snow Tuesday.

High temperatures will be mostly in the 20s today, then mid to
potentially upper 30s in some spots tomorrow, then return to the
20s and lower 30s for the remainder of the week. Winds will pick
up late tonight, with gusts to 50 mph expected Tuesday in normally
offshore channeled areas including Unalakleet and Kotzebue. With
such warm temperatures, extremely low visibility due to blowing
snow is less of a concern.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...

With the track of the surface low for Monday into Wednesday
trending closer to or right along the West Coast, concerns are a
little less for sea level rises. However potential is there for
minor rises on the southern coast of the Seward Peninsula and
water on top of sea ice.

Extended Forecast For Days 4 Through 7...

The building ridge over much of the state is expected to persist
into next weekend. Longer range models and ensembles continue to
indicate the ridge becoming more NW-SE oriented by late week
possibly shifting the storm track further west, bringing drier
conditions to the West Coast. Expect well above average
temperatures and dry conditions to persist over the Interior and
North Slope into the weekend. Temperatures may reach or even exceed
freezing in many locations including Fairbanks through Friday. The
only weather concerns in the Interior through next weekend will
be south winds through Alaska Range Passes and Tanana Valley Jet
winds at Delta Junction. These types of blocking patterns usually
last for 10-14+ days with guidance trying to break down the ridge
too soon. Therefore low confidence exists in model solutions
showing lows pushing into Southwest Alaska by the weekend.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Storm Warning for AKZ813-814-819-828.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ815>817.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ820>822-824.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ825-826.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ829-830.
     Wind Advisory for AKZ837.
     High Wind Warning for AKZ847-849.
PK...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ801.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ802-850.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802-850.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ804-805-852.
     Gale Warning for PKZ806.
     Gale Warning for PKZ807>810-855-856.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811-860-861.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812-857.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813-858-859.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ817.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ851.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ853.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ853.
     Gale Warning for PKZ854.
&&

CM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
214 PM AKST Mon Feb 12 2024

AKZ812-150000-
South Slopes Of The Central Brooks Range-
Including Wiseman, Coldfoot, Chandalar DOT Camp, Iniakuk Lake,
and the Dalton Highway from MP 165 to MP 232
214 PM AKST Mon Feb 12 2024

...Strong winds, blowing and drifting snow along Dalton Hwy...

Strong southerly winds will develop across the Brooks Range
Tuesday and Wednesday with gusts upwards of 50 mph through
mountain passes and along the Dalton Hwy. Blowing and drifting
snow may result in reduced visibility at times creating hazardous
travel conditions.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
214 PM AKST Mon Feb 12 2024

AKZ809-150000-
Central Brooks Range-
Including Anaktuvuk Pass, Atigun Pass, Galbraith Lake,
and the Dalton Highway from MP 232 to MP 322
214 PM AKST Mon Feb 12 2024

...Strong winds, blowing and drifting snow along Dalton Hwy...

Strong southerly winds will develop across the Brooks Range
Tuesday and Wednesday with gusts upwards of 50 mph through
mountain passes and along the Dalton Hwy. Blowing and drifting
snow may result in reduced visibility at times creating hazardous
travel conditions.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
214 PM AKST Mon Feb 12 2024

AKZ818-823-827-141200-
Northern Seward Peninsula-Interior Seward Peninsula-
St Lawrence Island-
Including Deering, Buckland, Candle, Serpentine Hot Springs,
Council, Haycock, Pilgrim Springs, Taylor, Gambell, and Savoonga
214 PM AKST Mon Feb 12 2024

...Strong Winds And Mixed Precipitation Early This Week...

A strong low pressure system will bring a large amount of warm
and moist air over Western Alaska starting Monday into Wednesday.
Areas can expect a mix of snow and freezing rain with this system
as it moves north. Freezing rain chances will reach as far north
as Kivalina by Tuesday afternoon. Ice accumulations of up to one
tenth of an inch are possible, with snow amounts ranging from 2
to 5 inches where Winter Storm Warnings are not in effect. Higher
snow totals are likely in the Bendeleben Mountains and where
warnings are in effect.

The system will also bring strong southeast winds gusting as high
as 50 mph to the West Coast and to hills near the coast from
Monday afternoon through Tuesday night. This will cause sea levels
to rise 1 to 2 feet south of the Bering Strait on Tuesday and
Wednesday. While flooding of infrastructure is not expected, these
strong winds may cause water to be pushed on top of the sea ice
making travel difficult.

Residents should stay tuned to the latest forecast updates at
www.weather.gov/afg and prepare for a stormy start to the week.