Gale Warning 64, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
349 AM AKST Tue Feb 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

A strong low pressure system continues to bring strong winds,
blowing snow, heavy snow, and mixed precipitation to the West
Coast and Western Interior. A continuous feed of moisture will
continue to bring periods of heavy snow and mixed precipitation to
these areas through Friday. A slough of Winter Storm Warnings and
Winter Weather Advisories are in effect. In the Interior, much
above normal temperatures and strong Chinook winds through Alaska
Range Passes continue. Expect little change to this pattern
through the end of the week. On the North Slope, a sharp warm up
is under way as a strong ridge of high pressure builds north.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Analysis and Model Discussion...

The current pattern will remain quite persistent through the end
of the week. The pattern consists of a strong ridge of high
pressure aloft extending NW across mainland Alaska from it's
center over southeast Alaska. A longwave trough lies from
Kamchatka to the Aleutians to the West Coast. Through Friday
morning, the ridge will strengthen and shift to the northwest. A
number of low pressure systems will move along the west side of
the ridge and along the West Coast of Alaska, bringing mixed
precipitation from a long feed of moisture from the central
Pacific. This will be the main forecast challenge this week.

Models have finally come into agreement on the fate of
the current system impacting the West Coast, and now show the low
pressure system nearly 15 mb deeper late Tuesday night as it
moves into the Chukchi Sea north of Point Hope than they showed 48
hours ago. As a result, expecting the strongest winds near
Kotzebue and north along the Chukchi Coast. This deeper solution
will also draw more moisture into the area, so have maintained
high end of guidance snow totals in this forecast package. For
this forecast package, we will use the NAM for winds early in the
period, followed by the GFS after Wednesday. The NAM becomes an
outlier at that time with a much weaker upper level ridge over the
Western Interior. Models have trended further west with the ridge
and as a result the precipitation along the western portion of
the state, so we will trend the forecast further west and not use
the NAM. We will also incorporate some of the Canadian into the
wind forecast to bump up values to match current observations and
trends, and we will make a number of hand edits to Alaska Range
Passes and offshore channeled areas to increase values where
models struggle to resolve strong winds near terrain.

Central and Eastern Interior...

Strong southerly winds are occuring this morning through Alaska
Range Passes, and strong Tanana Valley Jet winds are blowing near
Delta Junction. Expect gusts up to 75 mph through Alaska Range
Passes and to 60 mph at Delta Junction. These winds will be rather
persistent through the rest of the week as a strong pressure
gradient remains in place across the Alaska Range with additional
shortwaves passing aloft. Expect windy conditions over Steese and
Dalton Highway summits today and tonight, but with warm
temperatures, blowing snow should be quite limited. Otherwise,
expect well above normal temperatures under partly cloudy to
mostly clear skies through the end of the week. Many areas from
Fairbanks south to the Alaska Range will see above freezing high
temperatures today.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

Winds will turn southerly and pick up tonight, gusting to 50 mph
through Brooks Range Passes and to 30 mph along the coast through
Wednesday. This will bring much warmer air into the region, with
high temperatures soaring into the teens and 20s today and into
the 20s to near 30 in spots on Wednesday. Light snow is expected
today from Utqiagvik west and along the south slopes of the Brooks
Range with the system primarily impacting the West Coast.
Accumulations will be less than 2 inches. Temperatures will
moderate toward the end of the week, but remain well above normal
under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies.

West Coast and Western Interior...

A low pressure system currently over the Yukon Delta at 987 mb
continues to move north along the coast, bringing heavy snow, wind
and blowing snow, and areas of freezing rain to the West Coast and
Western Interior. Freezing rain so far has been limited to the
Lower Yukon Valley, but chances exist as far north as Kivalina by
later today. Could see a brief period of blizzard conditions near
Kotzebue and in the Kobuk Valley today. Numerous warnings and
advisories are out for this system. Snow totals will range from
around 3 inches to upwards of a foot. This system will move north
to Point Hope by this evening but continue to draw moisture
northward from the north Pacific. Precipitation should continue to
fall as snow for the most part, however any precipitation that
falls over the Western Interior on Thursday and Thursday night may
fall as freezing rain. Models have trended precipitation further
west away from the building ridge, and we've reflected this
solution in the forecast package. Thus, expecting most of the
precipitation to be snow and along the coast. Additional
watches/warnings/advisories may be needed for snow amounts later
this week. Temperatures will remain on the warm side, but cool
back to the teens and 20s after 20s and 30s today.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...

With the track of the surface low moving north through Wednesday
trending closer to or right along the West Coast, concerns are a
little less for sea level rises. However potential is there for
minor rises on the southern coast of the Seward Peninsula and
water on top of sea ice.

Extended Forecast For Days 4 Through 7...

The building ridge over much of the state is expected to persist
into next weekend. Longer range models and ensembles continue to
indicate the ridge becoming more NW-SE oriented by late week
possibly shifting the storm track further west, bringing drier
conditions to the West Coast. Expect well above average
temperatures and dry conditions to persist over the Interior and
North Slope into the weekend. Temperatures may reach or even exceed
freezing in many locations including Fairbanks through Friday. The
only weather concerns in the Interior through next weekend will
be south winds through Alaska Range Passes and Tanana Valley Jet
winds at Delta Junction. These types of blocking patterns usually
last for 10-14+ days with guidance trying to break down the ridge
too soon. Therefore low confidence exists in model solutions
showing lows pushing into Southwest Alaska by the weekend.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Storm Warning for AKZ801.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ813-814-819-828.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ815>817.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ818-823.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ820>822-824.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ825-826.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ829-830.
     Wind Advisory for AKZ837.
     High Wind Warning for AKZ847-849.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803-816-850-851.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ804-806.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ805-817-852-853.
     Gale Warning for PKZ807.
     Gale Warning for PKZ808-809-855.
     Gale Warning for PKZ810.
     Gale Warning for PKZ811-857.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812-858.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813-859-860.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814.
     Gale Warning for PKZ854.
     Gale Warning for PKZ856.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.
&&

CHRIEST

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