Gale Warning 22, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
332 PM AKST Wed Jan 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A strong storm moving north across the Bering Sea
today through Friday will bring heavy precipitation and strong
winds to the West Coast. The Interior will generally remain dry
and will see below normal temperatures the next few days. Winds
are expected to increase across portions of the Tanana Valley,
the Dalton High Summits, and the Alaska Range Passes tonight and
remain gusty through Thursday. Winds along the North Slope will
increase again over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Forecast Analysis and Discussion...A series of upper level short
wave troughs moving north over the Bering Sea and West Coast of
Alaska the next several days will bring significant precipitation
and strong winds to the West Coast through Friday. The short wave
moving west across Northern Alaska this weekend may bring a
chance of light snow to some areas this weekend.

At the surface, a high over the Beaufort Sea will build south over
northwestern Canada tonight, strengthening as it does so. A low
pressure system in the Bering Sea will continue to strengthen
overnight into Thursday and track northward, bringing gusty
easterly winds, mixed precipitation, heavy snow, and brief periods
of blizzard conditions to the West Coast. The system will then
gradually weaken into Friday as it continues to track northward
west of St. Lawrence Island and weaken. Another system then looks
to approach the Aleutians and make its way into the Bering Sea,
potentially impacting the YK Delta on Saturday.

Overall, models remain in decent agreement with the pattern for
the current system impacting the West Coast, however start to see
some discrepancies come the day 3 time frame and over the weekend.
Have trended the latest POP forecast towards the EC and Canadian
models with the afternoon forecast package.

North Slope and Brooks Range...Southerly winds along the Brooks
Range will gradually increase overnight and could bring periods of
blowing to drifting snow to portions of the Dalton Highway. Latest
guidance hints at gusts nearing 45 mph, so have added a Winter
Weather Advisory with the afternoon forecast package. Easterly
winds along the Arctic Coast will start to increase again over the
weekend, with winds potentially gusting up to 60 mph at times.
This could bring another round of blowing and drifting snow to
portions of the Arctic Coast.

West Coast and Western Interior...A strong storm moving northward
across the Bering Sea has started to bring snow and mixed precipitation
to portions of the Yukon Delta this morning. As of this afternoon,
areas along the Yukon Delta have reported snow and light freezing
rain transitioning over to snow. Overall, expect periods of mixed
precipitation to persist over the Yukon Delta, SW Interior, and
Norton Sound tonight through Thursday night. Precip will gradually
make its way northward this evening into early Thursday, with
latest guidance showing it making it into the Seward Peninsula by
tonight and northward into the Kotzebue Sound by early Thursday.
Easterly winds across the YK Delta have started to increase this
morning as well and expect winds to continue to increase further
northward along the West Coast (into Kotzebue Sound) tonight into
Thursday. Strong winds could produce blizzard conditions at times.
Precipitation generally continues to trend lighter for areas
north of the Seward Peninsula, with snow amounts generally expected
to be between 1-3 inches. Winter Storm Warnings and High Wind
Warnings remain in effect for many areas across the West Coast
into Friday.

Central and Eastern Interior...Clearing skies and cooler, below
normal temperatures are in store for the next few days across the
Eastern and Central Interior. Winds will increase across portions
of the Interior tonight into Thursday, although the Tanana Valley
Jet has already started to pick up this afternoon. Winds along the
Dalton Highway Summits will increase tonight while southerly winds
along the Alaska Range increase overnight into Thursday. Wind
advisories are in effect for areas along the Tanana Valley and
Alaska Range and Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect for
the Dalton High Way Summits. Windy areas will likely have blowing
snow.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended Forecast for Days 4 Through 7...Guidance is coming into
better agreement with the upper trough over northern Canada
retrograding across northern Alaska over the weekend and remains
rather consistent in strong easterly winds redeveloping along the
Arctic Coast Saturday and Sunday. Latest model guidance continues
to show the strongest of the winds remaining generally east of
Prudhoe Bay. Beyond the weekend, there remains a great deal of
uncertainty amongst model guidance regarding the general pattern.
The GFS is indicative of an upper level ridge building across the
Bering Sea and nudging into the Interior and while the ECMWF hints
at some degree of this as well, is showing disturbances riding
the perhipery of the ridge and moving into the Interior. Will need
to keep an eye on how model solutions trend over the next several
days, however, for now have generally trended the forecast to indicate
periods of light snow for interior and near normal temperatures.

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Storm Warning for AKZ801.
     High Wind Warning for AKZ815-817.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ820.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ821>823-825>827-830.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ824.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ832-834.
     Wind Advisory for AKZ837-839-845-849.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ808.
PK...Gale Warning for PKZ801-851.
     Gale Warning for PKZ802-803-805-852>854.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ802-853.
     Storm Warning for PKZ804.
     Storm Warning for PKZ806.
     Gale Warning for PKZ807>810-855.
     Gale Warning for PKZ811.
     Gale Warning for PKZ812.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813-814-859>861.
     Gale Warning for PKZ816-850.
     Gale Warning for PKZ817.
     Storm Warning for PKZ856.
     Gale Warning for PKZ857.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ858.
&&

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