Storm Warning 57, NWS Anchorage, AK

064 
FZAK52 PAFC 291302
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
402 AM AKST Thu Feb 29 2024

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-010215-
402 AM AKST Thu Feb 29 2024
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

High pressure lingers over the eastern Bering and Aleutians through 
Fri morning. A 980 mb Kamchatka low complex extends its front from 
the western and central Bering and Aleutians into the eastern Bering 
and Aleutians by Fri afternoon through Sat morning. A trough tracks 
over Attu Island on Fri afternoon.

$$

PKZ750-010215-
Sitkinak to Castle Cape out to 15 NM-
402 AM AKST Thu Feb 29 2024

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 10 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 10 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ751-010215-
Sitkinak to Castle Cape from 15 to 100 NM-
402 AM AKST Thu Feb 29 2024

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 45 kt diminishing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas
16 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ752-010215-
Castle Cape to Cape Tolstoi out to 15 NM-
402 AM AKST Thu Feb 29 2024

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt in the morning becoming variable 10 kt. Seas
2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ753-010215-
Castle Cape to Cape Tolstoi from 15 to 100 NM-
402 AM AKST Thu Feb 29 2024

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ754-010215-
Cape Tolstoi to Cape Sarichef out to 15 NM-
402 AM AKST Thu Feb 29 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...E wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ755-010215-
Cape Tolstoi to Cape Sarichef from 15 to 100 NM-
402 AM AKST Thu Feb 29 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ756-010215-
Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 NM-
402 AM AKST Thu Feb 29 2024

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY AND FRIDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ757-010215-
Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon from 15 to 60 NM-
402 AM AKST Thu Feb 29 2024

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft.
Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ758-010215-
Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 NM-
402 AM AKST Thu Feb 29 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ759-010215-
Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef from 15 to 70 NM-
402 AM AKST Thu Feb 29 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Snow. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ770-010215-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side out to 15 NM-
402 AM AKST Thu Feb 29 2024

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7
ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ772-010215-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
402 AM AKST Thu Feb 29 2024

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Snow. Freezing spray.
.FRI...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ771-010215-
Unalaska Bay-
402 AM AKST Thu Feb 29 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
3 ft. Snow.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ773-010215-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side out to 15 NM-
402 AM AKST Thu Feb 29 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. From Unalaska E, variable wind 10 kt
becoming SE 20 kt after midnight. Seas 7 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ774-010215-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side from 15 to 85 NM-
402 AM AKST Thu Feb 29 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Snow.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ775-010215-
Nikolski to Seguam Bering Side out to 15 NM-
402 AM AKST Thu Feb 29 2024

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt becoming S 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft.
Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ776-010215-
Nikolski to Seguam Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
402 AM AKST Thu Feb 29 2024

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ777-010215-
Nikolski to Seguam Pacfic Side out to 15 NM-
402 AM AKST Thu Feb 29 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ778-010215-
Nikolski to Seguam Pacific Side from 15 to 75 NM-
402 AM AKST Thu Feb 29 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain with snow.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ780-010215-
Seguam to Adak Bering Side out to 15 NM-
402 AM AKST Thu Feb 29 2024

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ781-010215-
Seguam to Adak Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
402 AM AKST Thu Feb 29 2024

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ782-010215-
Seguam to Adak Pacific Side out to 15 NM-
402 AM AKST Thu Feb 29 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11
ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ783-010215-
Seguam to Adak Pacific Side from 15 to 75 NM-
402 AM AKST Thu Feb 29 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ784-010215-
Adak to Kiska Bering Side-
402 AM AKST Thu Feb 29 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ785-010215-
Adak to Kiska Pacific Side-
402 AM AKST Thu Feb 29 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON...S wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ786-010215-
Kiska to Attu Bering Side-
402 AM AKST Thu Feb 29 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ787-010215-
Kiska to Attu Pacific Side-
402 AM AKST Thu Feb 29 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt becoming S 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
16 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.

$$

PKZ766-010215-
Pribilof Islands Nearshore Waters-
402 AM AKST Thu Feb 29 2024

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 5 
ft building to 9 ft after midnight. Freezing spray.
.FRI...E wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft. Snow. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ760-010215-
Bristol Bay greater than 15 NM-
402 AM AKST Thu Feb 29 2024

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft. Extreme 
freezing spray at a rate of 4 cm per hour or greater may rapidly 
accumulate on vessels.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft. Extreme 
freezing spray at a rate of 4 cm per hour or greater may rapidly 
accumulate on vessels near ice edge.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. Extreme freezing
spray at a rate of 4 cm per hour or greater may rapidly accumulate 
on vessels near ice edge.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.

$$

PKZ761-010215-
Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 NM-
402 AM AKST Thu Feb 29 2024

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Extreme freezing spray at a rate 
of 4 cm per hour or greater may rapidly accumulate on vessels.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Extreme freezing spray at a rate
of 4 cm per hour or greater may rapidly accumulate on vessels.
.FRI...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Extreme freezing spray at a rate of
4 cm per hour or greater may rapidly accumulate on vessels.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ762-010215-
Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Pierce out to 15 NM-
402 AM AKST Thu Feb 29 2024

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt.
.MON...S wind 25 kt.

$$

PKZ763-010215-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 NM-
402 AM AKST Thu Feb 29 2024

.TODAY...NW wind 20 kt.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 20 kt.
.SAT...E wind 25 kt.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt.
.MON...S wind 25 kt.

$$

PKZ764-010215-
Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 NM-
402 AM AKST Thu Feb 29 2024

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft. Extreme 
freezing spray at a rate of 4 cm per hour or greater may rapidly 
accumulate on vessels near ice edge.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft. Heavy 
freezing spray.
.FRI...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.
.SAT...E wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 9 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 5 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas in ice free waters 6 ft.

$$

PKZ765-010215-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
402 AM AKST Thu Feb 29 2024

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt.
.TONIGHT...E wind 20 kt.
.FRI...E wind 30 kt.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 25 kt.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE wind 25 kt.
.MON...S wind 25 kt.

$$

PKZ767-010215-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
402 AM AKST Thu Feb 29 2024

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E of Saint Matthew Island, variable wind 10 kt becoming
SE 15 kt in the afternoon. W of Saint Matthew Island, E wind 30 kt 
increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas in ice free waters 4 ft 
building to 8 ft in the afternoon. Snow. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...E 45 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas in ice free waters 13 ft building to 18 
ft after midnight. Snow. Extreme freezing spray at a rate of 4 cm per
hour or greater may rapidly accumulate on vessels near ice edge.
.FRI...E wind 35 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...E 45 kt W of Saint
Matthew Island. Seas in ice free waters 21 ft. Snow. Extreme 
freezing spray at a rate of 4 cm per hour or greater may rapidly 
accumulate on vessels near ice edge.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 20 ft.
.SAT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 16 ft.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 12 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
421 AM AKST Wed Feb 28 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Today
through Friday night)...

A deep and cold trough is centered over mainland Alaska and the
Gulf of Alaska, anchored by a vertically stacked low over the
eastern Gulf offshore. 850mb temperatures range from around -10
degrees Celsius along the north Gulf coast to -25 degrees Celsius
as you reach the Alaska Range. While this is an impressively cold
airmass (though not uncommon for this time of year), strong wind
flow around the Gulf low combined with tight surface pressure
gradients and resultant gap winds are leading to widespread windy
conditions across Southcentral. This is causing surface temperatures
to remain elevated far above what they otherwise would be with
light or calm winds. Air temperatures are fairly homogeneous in
the teens to 20s. The Copper River Basin is the one exception,
with temperatures in the single digits below zero to single digits
above zero. Wind chill readings range from single digits below
zero to teens above zero, with colder readings in the Copper River
Basin and through mountain passes. Wind speeds are highest
through the typical coastal bays and passes. Satellite-based winds
show the strongest winds over the western Gulf/Kodiak Island
coastal waters, with Storm force winds in the Kamishak Bay to
Barren Islands corridor.

The big story for the remainder of the work week will be more of
what is described above: cold and windy conditions. Short-waves
tracking down the back side of the trough across western Alaska
will move into the western Gulf and western Southcentral, with
forward momentum stopped by opposing flow around the north side
of the Gulf low. These will bring reinforcing shots of Arctic air.
The Gulf low will slowly weaken over the next couple of days,
ultimately dropping south into the Pacific by Friday. Even though
surface pressure will be rising over the Gulf, it will also be
rising over mainland Alaska. Thus, pressure gradients will remain
persistently tight. There will certainly be some fluctuations in
the strength of winds over the next couple days, but there is
enough forcing that nearly the entire region will experience
gusty winds and cold wind chills. The one notable change made to
the forecast this morning was to slow the drop in air temperatures
(because of the persistent windy conditions). Based on this
latest forecast it looks like the vast majority of Southcentral
will remain below the wind chill advisory threshold (-40 degrees
Fahrenheit with 15mph or greater sustained wind). Area mountain
passes are the most likely to ultimately reach this value.

Winds will begin to diminish Friday through Friday night as the
last in a series of short-waves moves through and a high amplitude
ridge approaches from the Bering Sea. Despite a moderating
airmass (warming 850mb temperatures), lighter winds will likely
result in the coldest temperatures of the week on Saturday morning
- with widespread sub-zero temperatures (Fahrenheit) expected.

SEB

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Friday)...

A strong upper level ridge is now beginning to build into place
across much of the Bering Sea ahead of what will soon be a
significant system of interest currently sitting well south of
Kamchatka. This low is already beginning to push a warm front into
the far western Aleutians, where gusty east winds and rain/snow
are in the process of shifting from the North Pacific into the
southwestern Bering. Across the rest of the outlook area farther
east, strong northwest flow is continuing to draw down Arctic air
into Southwest and through the AKPen as temperatures now begin to
dip below zero across the Lower Kuskokwim Valley and Kuskokwim
Delta. Strong gap flow up to storm force continues to blast out of
bays and passes along the AKPen, and these winds will continue to
stay strong and gusty for the next few days. Heavy to locally
extreme freezing spray rates will continue to be a marine hazard
close to the ice edge for the next couple days due to very cold
air temperatures coupled with the strong northerly winds. Out west
of Saint Matthew, a small polar low has developed this morning and
is beginning to move southeast. This low will pass north of the
Pribilof Islands later today before it heads into the southern
AKPen and shears apart, and this will likely lead to a brief
uptick in winds as it moves past along with a short period of snow
and blowing snow for the Pribilofs.

As bitterly cold air continues to settle over Southwest, attention
begins to turn towards a robust frontal system expected to take
shape and move slowly and steadily northeast into the Bering
through Friday. This front will be associated with the low
currently sitting in between Kamchatka and Japan, but the parent
low will likely stay mostly west of the outlook area as it heads
steadily north over the next few days. A surge of deep southerly
flow and very warm Pacific air is expected to commence today
behind the northward advancing front, initially allowing a quick
change from rain to snow along the frontal zone as it progresses
northeastward into the Bering and moves past the central/western
Aleutians through Thursday morning.

Later on Thursday, a nose of warm air aloft above freezing may
begin to override the very cold air mass in place over the eastern
half of the Bering Sea, setting the stage for a messy wintry mix
of precipitation transitioning from snow and sleet, then freezing
rain, then rain as the front approaches the Pribilofs, eastern
Aleutians and southern Alaska Peninsula between Thursday and
Friday. There is still a fairly high degree of uncertainty in
terms of the timing of this transition for any given location, but
the possibility of accumulating freezing rain amounting to as
much as 0.1 to 0.2 inches is becoming more likely at some point
between Thursday and Friday, especially along the southern AKPen
and across the eastern Aleutians. This will be highly dependent
on how long surface temperatures can remain at or below freezing
before warmer air moves in and changes precipitation over to
predominantly rain. The Pribilofs meanwhile could get several
inches of snow mixing with sleet and freezing rain at times, with
strong southeast winds likely to cause areas of blowing snow
between Thursday and Friday as well.

-AS

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7) Saturday through Tuesday...

Model tracks and strengths become more uncertain through the
forecast period. The weather pattern across the region is
dominated by moderately high amplitude troughs and ridges
traveling from West to East. A strong upper level trough over the
Central and Eastern Interior exits into the Canadian Provinces for
Sunday. On its heels is a upper level ridge that moves into the
Mainland by Tuesday. This draws a considerable amount of subzero
Arctic air all the way down to Southcentral and Southwest Alaska
through the weekend. Gusty outflow winds are expected along the
Southcentral coast and through Bristol Bay on Saturday.

In the West, a fairly strong low enters the Western Bering on
Sunday and tracks across the Northern Bering through Tuesday.
Widespread gusty winds with areas of gale force gusts spread over
the Southern Bering and Aleutians, diminishing late Monday, before
a second developing low approaches the Western Aleutians for
Tuesday. This low will bring another round of widespread gusty
winds with areas of gale force gusts spread over the Southern
Bering and Aleutians late Monday into Tuesday. Both lows deliver
locally heavy precipitation through Tuesday.

Kutz

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will persist. Gusty northerly winds will
continue for the next several days. The strongest winds are
expected this afternoon and evening when gusts could reach up to
35 kt.

&&