Storm Warning 28, NWS Anchorage, AK

755 
FZAK62 PAFC 010012
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
312 PM AKST Thu Feb 29 2024

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-011500-
312 PM AKST Thu Feb 29 2024
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

The Northern Bering high moves inland Sat morning. A 973 mb low 
complex moves into the Sea of Okhotsk by Sat morning. Its front 
moves over the Aleutians into the Alaska Peninsula through Sat 
afternoon. A 1000 mb North Pacific low moves to 53N 175E at 985 mb
by Sat afternoon. Its front moves over the Western Aleutians for 
Sat afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-011500-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
312 PM AKST Thu Feb 29 2024

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt diminishing to 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Rain and light freezing rain.
.FRI...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 15 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.TUE...NE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.

$$

PKZ412-011500-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
312 PM AKST Thu Feb 29 2024

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Rain and light
freezing rain. Freezing spray.
.FRI...SE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 21 ft. Rain and snow.
Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft. Snow with
rain.
.SAT...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ413-011500-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
312 PM AKST Thu Feb 29 2024

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft. Rain and light
freezing rain.
.FRI...S wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.TUE...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ414-011500-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
312 PM AKST Thu Feb 29 2024

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft. Snow. Heavy
freezing spray.
.FRI...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Snow. Heavy freezing
spray.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft. Snow. Freezing 
spray.
.SAT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
505 PM AKST Wed Feb 28 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Tonight
through Friday)...

A vertically stacked low remains nearly stationary over the
northern Gulf of Alaska this evening. Along with it an arctic
airmass has permeated all of Southcentral with 850mb temperatures
remaining as cold as -25 degrees and warmer temperatures up to -10
degrees along the Gulf coast. For tonight through the next couple
of days the thermal gradient will maintain a strong pressure
gradient and subsequent gusty northerly winds through
Southcentral. The presence of the sun over Anchorage today has
been deceptive with afternoon temperatures only warming into the
mid and upper teens. Winds, however, have been gusting in excess
of 35 mph in many locations resulting in wind chills at or below 0
degrees. Further north and into the Valley, Palmer has been
gusting in excess of 60 mph. Regardless of where you are located
within the Southcentral forecast area, gusty winds have likely
contributed to areas of blowing snow. Visibilities have largely
remained unaffected. The exceptions being through the Hay Flats
along the Glenn Highway, and also over Thompson Pass where gusts
have approached 70+ mph. Wind speeds remain highest through the
typical coastal bays and passes and this will remain true through
tomorrow and Thursday.

Offshore, satellite-based winds continue to show storm force
winds over the western Gulf/Kodiak Island coastal waters, from out
of the Kamishak Bay area into the Barren Islands corridor. On the
south side of Kodiak Island, from immediately offshore of Akhiok
southeastward, gusts have been approaching hurricane force over
the past couple of hours. Over the next few days, and with little
change to the synoptic pattern, temperatures will remain cold and
winds will remain gusty. Winds will begin to diminish Friday
through Friday night as the last in a series of short-waves moves
through and a high amplitude ridge approaches from the Bering Sea.
Despite a moderating airmass (warming 850mb temperatures),
lighter winds will likely result in the coldest temperatures of
the week on Saturday morning - with widespread sub-zero
temperatures (Fahrenheit) expected.

SEB/BL

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Tonight through Friday)...

A strong upper level ridge has built across much of the Bering
Sea, and with a low pressure system in the central Gulf of Alaska,
gusty winds out of the north continue to flow into Southwest
Alaska. This air is dry and cold, keeping skies clear, which is
helping alleviate the bitterly cold temperatures in areas like the
Lower Kuskokwim Delta. The wind flow itself is also keeping the
air mixing with slightly warmer air aloft. This is all to say that
Southwest Alaska is, and will remain cold the next few days,
however the lack of strong winds and warming during the day reduce
but do not eliminate the threat and impact of dangerous wind chill
temperatures. Proper precautions should still be taken when
operating outside as we approach the weekend in Southwest Alaska.
Earlier today, a Polar low diving out of the northern Bering Sea
crossed the Pribilof Islands and is currently weakening and
making it's way across the Alaska Peninsula and Eastern Aleutians
out into the northern Pacific.

Further to the West, a robust warm front has pushed into the
Western Aleutians. This system is initially producing snow as it
moves over an area, however transitioning quickly to a rain/snow
mix then to plain rain as warm air behind the front fills in. This
precipitation transition is expected to persist for most areas as
the front progresses eastward steadily up the Aleutian Chain. By
Thursday, a nose of warm air aloft above freezing may begin to
override the very cold air mass in place over the eastern half of
the Bering Sea, setting the stage for a messy wintry mix of
precipitation transitioning from snow and sleet, then freezing
rain, then rain as the front approaches the Pribilofs, eastern
Aleutians and southern Alaska Peninsula between Thursday and
Friday. It is still expected that the initial surge of
precipitation will come in the form of snowfall, followed by gale-
force sustained southerly winds. As such, blowing snow reducing
visibility to one-half mile or less at times is possible for the
Pribilofs early Thursday evening. There is still a fairly high
degree of uncertainty in terms of the exact timing of this
transition for any given location, but the possibility of
accumulating freezing rain amounting to as much as 0.1 to 0.2
inches is becoming more likely at some point between Thursday and
Friday, especially along the southern AKPen and across the eastern
Aleutians. As such, a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for
the Pribilofs for blowing snow and the potential for freezing
rain. Please see product for more information. This will be highly
dependent on how long surface temperatures can remain at or below
freezing before warmer air moves in and changes precipitation
over to predominantly rain. The Pribilofs meanwhile could get
several inches of snow mixing with sleet and freezing rain at
times, with strong southeast winds likely to cause areas of
blowing snow between Thursday and Friday as well.

Friday and beyond, this frontal boundary will continue it's march
eastward reaching the Alaska Peninsula by Friday morning, and
potentially the Southwest coastline by Saturday morning. This will
depend on the strength of the ridge over Southwest at the time,
but may help warm up the area after the series of days with cold
temperatures. Additionally, by late Saturday morning, a new north
Pacific low pressure system appears to approach the western
Aleutians.

-CL/AS

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7) Sunday through Wednesday...

Forecast models show an active series of moderate amplitude upper
level troughs and ridges moving across the Bering through the
Alaskan Mainland. Model tracks and strengths continue to be more
uncertain through the forecast period. Interior Alaska is
dominated by an upper level ridge, flexing with the transient
shortwaves that have been moving through the pattern. However,
Arctic cold and dry conditions will continue to drain across the
Mainland through the period. Conditions over the Bering remain
under the influence of the broad upper low with surface fronts or
troughs rotating around the Bering through Wednesday. The most
active weather will be widespread precipitation, with snow over
the Northern portions and mixed rain and snow or rain and gusty
winds along the Aleutians. A well developed North Pacific low
spreads its influence across the Aleutians for Tuesday with mostly
rain and gusty winds with areas of gale force gusts moving into
the Alaska Peninsula and Kodiak Island by Wednesday.

Kutz

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and strong northerly winds will persist.
The strongest winds are still expected to be this evening with
gusts could reaching up to 35 kt.

-CC

&&