Storm Warning 156, NWS Anchorage, AK

938 
FZAK52 PAFC 031154
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
254 AM AKST Sun Nov 3 2024

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-040015-
254 AM AKST Sun Nov 3 2024
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 990 mb low 230 nm northwest of Kiska moves to 40 nm north of
Kiska for Mon afternoon. A 963 mb low 140 nm south of Nikolski 
Mon morning moves to 80 nm northeast of Cape Sarichef at 952 mb 
by Tue morning.

$$

PKZ750-040015-
Sitkinak to Castle Cape out to 15 NM-
254 AM AKST Sun Nov 3 2024

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3
ft building to 8 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE...S wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ751-040015-
Sitkinak to Castle Cape from 15 to 100 NM-
254 AM AKST Sun Nov 3 2024

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt becoming SE 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft
building to 13 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 50 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.THU...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.

$$

PKZ752-040015-
Castle Cape to Cape Tolstoi out to 15 NM-
254 AM AKST Sun Nov 3 2024

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 6 ft building to 12 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ753-040015-
Castle Cape to Cape Tolstoi from 15 to 100 NM-
254 AM AKST Sun Nov 3 2024

...STORM WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 10 ft building to 19 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 29 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ754-040015-
Cape Tolstoi to Cape Sarichef out to 15 NM-
254 AM AKST Sun Nov 3 2024

...STORM WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SE 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.MON...E wind 50 kt. Seas 12 ft building to 19 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ755-040015-
Cape Tolstoi to Cape Sarichef from 15 to 100 NM-
254 AM AKST Sun Nov 3 2024

...STORM WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE 30 kt after midnight. Seas
8 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 14 ft building to 25 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 30 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 50 kt. Seas 29 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ756-040015-
Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 NM-
254 AM AKST Sun Nov 3 2024

...STORM WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt becoming S after midnight. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...E wind 35 kt increasing to 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4
ft building to 8 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ757-040015-
Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon from 15 to 60 NM-
254 AM AKST Sun Nov 3 2024

...STORM WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt increasing to 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6
ft building to 13 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...E wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ758-040015-
Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 NM-
254 AM AKST Sun Nov 3 2024

...STORM WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SE 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 4 ft.
.MON...E wind 50 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ759-040015-
Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef from 15 to 70 NM-
254 AM AKST Sun Nov 3 2024

...STORM WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt after midnight. Seas 5
ft.
.MON...E wind 55 kt. Seas 10 ft building to 16 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ770-040015-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side out to 15 NM-
254 AM AKST Sun Nov 3 2024

...STORM WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt after midnight. Seas 4
ft. Rain.
.MON...E wind 55 kt becoming SE 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 13
ft. Rain and snow.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE...W wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ772-040015-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
254 AM AKST Sun Nov 3 2024

...STORM WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming E 30 kt after midnight. Seas 6
ft.
.MON...E wind 50 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.TUE...W wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ771-040015-
Unalaska Bay-
254 AM AKST Sun Nov 3 2024

...STORM WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 10 kt becoming SE 30 kt after midnight. Seas 2
ft building to 4 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...E wind 50 kt becoming SE 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft
subsiding to 5 ft in the afternoon. Rain and snow.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ773-040015-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side out to 15 NM-
254 AM AKST Sun Nov 3 2024

...STORM WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming E 40 kt after midnight. Seas 8
ft. Rain.
.MON...E wind 55 kt becoming S 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 15 ft
building to 22 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ774-040015-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side from 15 to 85 NM-
254 AM AKST Sun Nov 3 2024

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 50 kt after midnight. Seas 7
ft building to 11 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 55 kt. Seas 17 ft building to 30 ft in the
afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 55 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ775-040015-
Nikolski to Seguam Bering Side out to 15 NM-
254 AM AKST Sun Nov 3 2024

...STORM WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.MON...N wind 50 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.TUE...W wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ776-040015-
Nikolski to Seguam Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
254 AM AKST Sun Nov 3 2024

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt becoming E 30 kt after midnight. Seas 6
ft.
.MON...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE...W wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ777-040015-
Nikolski to Seguam Pacfic Side out to 15 NM-
254 AM AKST Sun Nov 3 2024

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming E 40 kt after midnight. Seas 8
ft. Rain.
.MON...N wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...W wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ778-040015-
Nikolski to Seguam Pacific Side from 15 to 75 NM-
254 AM AKST Sun Nov 3 2024

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt becoming E 50 kt after midnight. Seas
13 ft. Rain.
.MON...W wind 50 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 50 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE...W wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ780-040015-
Seguam to Adak Bering Side out to 15 NM-
254 AM AKST Sun Nov 3 2024

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...N wind 25 kt becoming NW 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ781-040015-
Seguam to Adak Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
254 AM AKST Sun Nov 3 2024

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.MON...N wind 20 kt becoming NW 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ782-040015-
Seguam to Adak Pacific Side out to 15 NM-
254 AM AKST Sun Nov 3 2024

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ783-040015-
Seguam to Adak Pacific Side from 15 to 75 NM-
254 AM AKST Sun Nov 3 2024

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 ft building to 15 ft in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ784-040015-
Adak to Kiska Bering Side-
254 AM AKST Sun Nov 3 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ785-040015-
Adak to Kiska Pacific Side-
254 AM AKST Sun Nov 3 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ786-040015-
Kiska to Attu Bering Side-
254 AM AKST Sun Nov 3 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ787-040015-
Kiska to Attu Pacific Side-
254 AM AKST Sun Nov 3 2024

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ766-040015-
Pribilof Islands Nearshore Waters-
254 AM AKST Sun Nov 3 2024

...STORM WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SE 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 5 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt becoming NE 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft
building to 13 ft in the afternoon.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 50 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ760-040015-
Bristol Bay greater than 15 NM-
254 AM AKST Sun Nov 3 2024

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...E wind 25 kt increasing to 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4
ft building to 9 ft in the afternoon. Rain and snow.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ761-040015-
Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 NM-
254 AM AKST Sun Nov 3 2024

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...E wind 25 kt increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5
ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ762-040015-
Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Pierce out to 15 NM-
254 AM AKST Sun Nov 3 2024

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...E wind 25 kt increasing to 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2
ft building to 6 ft in the afternoon. Snow.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ763-040015-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 NM-
254 AM AKST Sun Nov 3 2024

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt becoming E 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...E wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ764-040015-
Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 NM-
254 AM AKST Sun Nov 3 2024

...STORM WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt increasing to 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5
ft building to 12 ft in the afternoon. Rain with snow.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ765-040015-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
254 AM AKST Sun Nov 3 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 kt becoming E 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...N wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ767-040015-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
254 AM AKST Sun Nov 3 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...NE 25
kt W of Saint Matthew Island. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...E of Saint Matthew Island, variable wind 10 kt becoming E
30 kt in the afternoon. W of Saint Matthew Island, NE wind 25 kt.
Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...N wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
503 AM AKDT Sat Nov 2 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A broad upper level trough encompasses the southern Mainland, but
the main weather feature for Southcentral over the weekend will be
a moderately strong surface low currently situated in the southern
Gulf. To the north of this feature, rain and upper elevation snow
continue over the Prince William Sound while the rest of the
region is now for the most part downsloped and away from upper
level forcing that could produce meaningful precipitation.
Through the day today, expect this rain to let up as the surface
low moves into the eastern Gulf.

For Sunday, a shortwave rounding the base of the longwave trough
will help lift remnants of the Gulf low into Southcentral while an
additional meso-low forms south of the Sound. As this feature
lifts north, cold air will wrap back in, allowing for a transition
from rain to snow as the feature lifts north through late Sunday
and into Monday morning. A broad one to two inches is expected to
fall for most areas, but there remains some uncertainty on timing.
This feature will quickly shift into Southeast Alaska on Monday
as ridging builds ahead of a broad and strong system moving into
the Bering. This storm will likely have widespread impacts on
Tuesday, so be sure to stay tuned to the forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Small craft gap winds will persist south of the Alaska Peninsula
and Eastern Aleutians today as a storm force low weakens and moves
into the Gulf of Alaska. A surface low in the Western Bering
remains stagnant through this weekend, producing a small area of
small craft winds across the Western/Central Aleutians. Colder air
continues to filter across Southwest Alaska today and Sunday,
keeping temperatures in the 20's to low 30's and overnight
temperatures dipping into the teens for inland areas. Snow is
expected across much of Bristol Bay and the Kuskokwim Delta,
except for areas from Iliamna south to King Salmon, who may warm
up enough to see some mixed precipitation or even periods of all
rain. Snow moves north in the lower Kuskokwim Valley by Sunday
morning. Highest snow amounts will be from Dillingham to Koliganek
with 2 to 5 inches expected, and elsewhere of up to 2 inches
possible.

The next round of active weather approaches late Sunday night
with an incoming storm force low out of the North Pacific,
remnants of typhoon Kong-Rey. There remains some light
discrepancies amongst the models regarding exact track. The GFS is
the furthest west solution, placing the low west of Nikolski late
Monday morning. The Canadian is the furthest east and slightly
slower, placing the low over Akutan Island Monday afternoon. All
three models, however, are showing a high chance for storm force
winds impacting the Central/Eastern Aleutians and southern Alaska
Peninsula by early next week. Warmer air accompanies the front,
leaving precipitation types over the Aleutians and Alaska
Peninsula as all rain Monday and Tuesday. Bristol Bay could see
temperatures pushing into the high 30's to low 40's on Tuesday,
with elsewhere across Southwest keeping to the mid-to-low 30's.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday)...

Weather across Alaska continues an active pattern as a series of
strong lows and fronts work their way over the state through the
forecast period. A broad upper level low extends across the Bering
into Western Alaska, with the most active weather over Southern
Alaska. An ECMWF / GFS combination maintains good continuity in
the strengths and paths of the transitory systems. The first of
these lows is the remnants of the former tropical system Kong-Rey
crossing the Aleutians into Bristol Bay on Tuesday before
recurving over Southwest Alaska through Thursday. As the central
surface pressures remain around 950 mb, this system brings
widespread heavy rains from the Central Aleutians and Alaska
Peninsula into Southwest Alaska by Thursday. Gale force winds over
the Central and Eastern Bering begin to diminish late Tuesday,
with some coastal flooding possible through Wednesday. High end
gales remain over the Southern flank of the storm, affecting
Kodiak Island and the Southern end of the Kenai Peninsula, Barren
Island and Kamishak Bay before dropping off Wednesday. Storm focus
changes to Western Alaska after midweek, as winds diminish, but
rains continue to spread towards Nunivak Island through the week.
Heavier rains spread across Southcentral Alaska from the Eastern
slopes of the Alaska Range all the way to the Canadian border
through Friday. Beginning midweek, another well developed North
Pacific low and front slips Eastward just South of the Aleutians
before turning into the Western Gulf for Friday. This brings
another round of heavy rains and gusty winds along the AKPEN and
into Kodiak Island and Southcentral Alaska.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light northerly winds expected. There
is still a chance for IFR ceilings and visibilities this morning
as lower clouds and patches of fog linger around Anchorage Bowl.
However, observations near the terminal show that ceilings have
greatly improved overnight, lending confidence towards VFR
conditions.

&&