Gale Warning 784, NWS Anchorage, AK

746 
FZAK52 PAFC 022320
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
320 PM AKDT Sat Nov 2 2024

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-031230-
320 PM AKDT Sat Nov 2 2024
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 989 mb low 235 nm North of Kiska moves to 65 nm North of Kiska 
Mon afternoon. Its front sweeps across the Western Bering Mon 
afternoon. A 982 mb North Pacific low Sun afternoon moves to 40 nm 
Southwest of Cape Sarichef at 954 mb Mon afternoon. Its front extends
over the Alaska Peninsula through Mon afternoon.

$$

PKZ750-031230-
Sitkinak to Castle Cape out to 15 NM-
320 PM AKDT Sat Nov 2 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...S wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.THU...S wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ751-031230-
Sitkinak to Castle Cape from 15 to 100 NM-
320 PM AKDT Sat Nov 2 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 50 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.WED...S wind 35 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.THU...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ752-031230-
Castle Cape to Cape Tolstoi out to 15 NM-
320 PM AKDT Sat Nov 2 2024

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ753-031230-
Castle Cape to Cape Tolstoi from 15 to 100 NM-
320 PM AKDT Sat Nov 2 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 29 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ754-031230-
Cape Tolstoi to Cape Sarichef out to 15 NM-
320 PM AKDT Sat Nov 2 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SE 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.WED...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ755-031230-
Cape Tolstoi to Cape Sarichef from 15 to 100 NM-
320 PM AKDT Sat Nov 2 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt becoming SE 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 30 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 30 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ756-031230-
Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon out to 15 NM-
320 PM AKDT Sat Nov 2 2024

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Snow showers.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...E wind 50 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 45 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ757-031230-
Port Heiden to Nelson Lagoon from 15 to 60 NM-
320 PM AKDT Sat Nov 2 2024

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...S wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ758-031230-
Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef out to 15 NM-
320 PM AKDT Sat Nov 2 2024

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...E wind 45 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...S wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ759-031230-
Nelson Lagoon to Cape Sarichef from 15 to 70 NM-
320 PM AKDT Sat Nov 2 2024

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...E wind 50 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ770-031230-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side out to 15 NM-
320 PM AKDT Sat Nov 2 2024

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 35 kt after midnight.
Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.MON...E wind 55 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...W wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ772-031230-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
320 PM AKDT Sat Nov 2 2024

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming E 35 kt after midnight.
Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.MON...E wind 50 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...W wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ771-031230-
Unalaska Bay-
320 PM AKDT Sat Nov 2 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less
than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 2 ft building to 4 ft after midnight. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...W wind 35 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ773-031230-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side out to 15 NM-
320 PM AKDT Sat Nov 2 2024

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 45 kt after midnight.
Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.MON...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 30 ft.
.TUE...W wind 40 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ774-031230-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side from 15 to 85 NM-
320 PM AKDT Sat Nov 2 2024

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt becoming SE 50 kt after midnight.
Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.MON...S wind 50 kt. Seas 30 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SW wind 55 kt. Seas 34 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 31 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ775-031230-
Nikolski to Seguam Bering Side out to 15 NM-
320 PM AKDT Sat Nov 2 2024

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming E 40 kt after midnight.
Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.MON...N wind 45 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE...W wind 40 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ776-031230-
Nikolski to Seguam Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
320 PM AKDT Sat Nov 2 2024

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt becoming E 35 kt after midnight.
Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.MON...N wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.TUE...W wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ777-031230-
Nikolski to Seguam Pacfic Side out to 15 NM-
320 PM AKDT Sat Nov 2 2024

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt becoming E 45 kt after midnight.
Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.MON...N wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON NIGHT...W wind 45 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.TUE...W wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ778-031230-
Nikolski to Seguam Pacific Side from 15 to 75 NM-
320 PM AKDT Sat Nov 2 2024

...STORM WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt becoming E 50 kt after midnight.
Seas 11 ft. Rain.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W wind 50 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.TUE...W wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.

$$

PKZ780-031230-
Seguam to Adak Bering Side out to 15 NM-
320 PM AKDT Sat Nov 2 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 kt becoming NE 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 4 ft. Rain.
.MON...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ781-031230-
Seguam to Adak Bering Side from 15 to 85 NM-
320 PM AKDT Sat Nov 2 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.MON...N wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.TUE...W wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ782-031230-
Seguam to Adak Pacific Side out to 15 NM-
320 PM AKDT Sat Nov 2 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 kt becoming NE 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.MON...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ783-031230-
Seguam to Adak Pacific Side from 15 to 75 NM-
320 PM AKDT Sat Nov 2 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.MON...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.THU...W wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ784-031230-
Adak to Kiska Bering Side-
320 PM AKDT Sat Nov 2 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ785-031230-
Adak to Kiska Pacific Side-
320 PM AKDT Sat Nov 2 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...N wind 15 kt becoming NW 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 7 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ786-031230-
Kiska to Attu Bering Side-
320 PM AKDT Sat Nov 2 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ787-031230-
Kiska to Attu Pacific Side-
320 PM AKDT Sat Nov 2 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ766-031230-
Pribilof Islands Nearshore Waters-
320 PM AKDT Sat Nov 2 2024

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SE 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 5 ft.
.MON...NE wind 50 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 50 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ760-031230-
Bristol Bay greater than 15 NM-
320 PM AKDT Sat Nov 2 2024

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...E wind 45 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ761-031230-
Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 NM-
320 PM AKDT Sat Nov 2 2024

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain showers and snow showers.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...E wind 40 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 50 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ762-031230-
Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Pierce out to 15 NM-
320 PM AKDT Sat Nov 2 2024

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow and rain.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft.
.MON...E wind 45 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ763-031230-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 NM-
320 PM AKDT Sat Nov 2 2024

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming SW after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...E wind 40 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...E wind 35 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ764-031230-
Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 NM-
320 PM AKDT Sat Nov 2 2024

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming S after midnight. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...E wind 50 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 50 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ765-031230-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
320 PM AKDT Sat Nov 2 2024

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...N wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ767-031230-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
320 PM AKDT Sat Nov 2 2024

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...N wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...NE 20 
kt W of Saint Matthew Island. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...N wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
518 PM AKDT Fri Nov 1 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Conditions across Southcentral have improved substantially since
Thursday and early this morning for most locations, with snow
tapering off from the Western Kenai Peninsula up into the Mat-Su
Valleys. Generally drier weather is forecast from the Anchorage
Bowl into the Copper River Basin through the weekend while the
next incoming area of low pressure remains well south of the Gulf
Coast. In contrast to interior locations of Southcentral, coastal
areas will continue to see precipitation chances as southeast flow
pushes Gulf moisture into the eastern mountain faces, with
periods of continuous rain expected for Prince William Sound and
the Eastern Kenai Peninsula. Forecast models are indicating the
next round of potential precipitation for interior Southcentral
will arrive late Sunday into early Monday morning of next week.
While model agreement could be better, the good news is that,
regardless of preferred model solution, the next system appears to
be much weaker in comparison, with only 1 to 2 inches of snow
currently forecast to reach Anchorage.

If we take a look at afternoon satellite imagery a ~960 mb low is
tracking just south of the Alaska Peninsula this afternoon with a
gale force front currently lifting into Kodiak Island. ASCAT
passes reveal easterly to southeasterly gales along the front
with storm force winds approximately 115 nm S of the low's center.
The low is expected to move immediately southeast of Kodiak
Island through tonight with gales overspreading much of Kodiak
Island into early Saturday morning. There is some potential for
gusts closer to 50 knots through the bays and passes. Warm
southeast flow will keep any precipitation associated with the
front as all rain.

The low then continues northeastward through Saturday, eventually
becoming more stationary roughly 90 nm SE of Canoe Island late
Saturday evening. In the short term gusts to 50+ knots are
forecast through the Shelikof Strait and across the Barren Islands
through midnight tonight. Expect seas of 8 to 12 feet before
conditions diminish late tomorrow morning. With the low's eastward
movement on Saturday, the area of previously mentioned storm
force winds on the south side of the low will also expand
eastward, potentially resulting in 40 foot seas across the
offshore zone of 352.

BL

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 and 2: Today through Monday)...

A storm force low is currently passing just south of the Eastern
Aleutian Islands and the Alaska Peninsula. Gusty winds of 60 to
65 mph are impacting the Central and Eastern Aleutian Islands and
will continue until the low moves into the Gulf of Alaska on
Saturday. Moderate to heavy rainfall is also impacting these
locations as the low tracks east. Lingering small craft gap winds
will affect the Alaska Peninsula until Saturday evening. A small
low will bring localized small craft winds and rain to the western
Aleutian Islands. This small low will slowly move northeast and
will dissipate by Sunday.

Cold air advection will arrive in Southwestern Alaska behind
today's low. This will interact with lingering moisture in Bristol Bay
and the Kuskokwim Delta regions to allow for snowfall to develop
on Saturday. The south part of Bristol Bay will see either rain
mixed with snow or just rain. No freezing rain is expected due to
the colder air aloft. Snow accumulations through Sunday morning will
vary but will range from 2 to 5 inches with the greatest
accumulations occurring north of Dillingham.

Sunday will be relatively calm with a few shortwaves crossing the
Bering Sea. These shortwaves allow for 10-20mph winds and
rainfall to affect most of the Bering. The next weather event will
be a strong low that will sweep into the Bering by Monday
afternoon. This low is associated with the remnants of Typhoon
Kong-rey and will bring storm force winds and heavy rainfall as it
passes through the Central Aleutians. There is uncertainty on the
track of this low, but ensembles are hinting that it will take a
northeasterly track through the Bering Sea. Despite strong warm
air advection traveling with the low, the Aleutians and Alaska
Peninsula could see some mixed precipitation ahead of the low due
to the cold air mass that the low is moving into.

-JR

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday)...

Weather across Alaska continues an active pattern as a series of
strong lows and fronts work their way over the state through the
forecast period. A broad upper level low extends across the Bering
into Western Alaska, with the most active weather over Southern
Alaska. An ECMWF / GFS combination maintains good continuity in
the strengths and paths of the transitory systems. The first of
these lows is the remnants of the former tropical system Kong- Rey
crossing the Aleutians into Bristol Bay on Tuesday before
recurving over Southwest Alaska through Thursday. As the central
surface pressures remain around 950 mb, this system brings
widespread heavy rains from the Central Aleutians and Alaska
Peninsula into Southwest Alaska by Thursday. Gale force winds over
the Central and Eastern Bering begin to diminish late Tuesday,
with some coastal flooding possible through Wednesday. High end
gales remain over the Southern flank of the storm, affecting
Kodiak Island and the Southern end of the Kenai Peninsula, Barren
Island and Kamishak Bay before dropping off Wednesday. Storm focus
changes to Western Alaska after midweek, as winds diminish, but
rains continue to spread towards Nunivak Island through the week.
Heavier rains spread across Southcentral Alaska from the Eastern
slopes of the Alaska Range all the way to the Canadian border
through Friday. Beginning midweek, another well developed North
Pacific low and front slips Eastward just South of the Aleutians
before turning into the Western Gulf for Friday. This brings
another round of heavy rains and gusty winds along the AKPEN and
into Kodiak Island and Southcentral Alaska.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...IFR ceilings will linger this afternoon into early
evening. A front moving in from the southwest may help increase
vertical mixing and therefore lift some of the lower clouds to
MVFR overnight. This front may also lead to LLWS development this
evening through early Saturday morning.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1036 PM AKDT Fri Nov 1 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     Snow             1 W Anchorage (Potter V 61.05N 149.78W
11/01/2024  M5.0 Inch        Anchorage          AK   Public

            0.38 SWE.

&&