High Wind Watch 2, NWS Anchorage, AK

145 
WWAK72 PAFC 121310
NPWALU

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
410 AM AKST Fri Jan 12 2024

AKZ185-130300-
/O.CON.PAFC.HW.A.0002.240113T0600Z-240113T2100Z/
Eastern Aleutians-
Including the cities of Unalaska and Nikolski
410 AM AKST Fri Jan 12 2024

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 45 to 55 mph with gusts up to 75 mph 
  possible.

* WHERE...Eastern Aleutians.

* WHEN...From Friday evening through Saturday morning.

* IMPACTS...High winds could move loose debris, damage property, 
  and cause power outages. Travel could be difficult.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A deepening North Pacific low is forecast
  to lift across the Eastern Aleutians Friday night into Saturday.
  North to northwesterly winds on the backside of the low have the
  potential to gust up to 75 mph. Expect winds to increase from
  west to east Friday night, with Nikolski to experience the
  strongest winds initially. Gusty conditions will then taper off
  in a similar fashion from west to east later on Saturday morning
  with Akutan to experience the tail-end of enhanced winds. In 
  addition, rain will change to snow early Saturday morning. 
  Falling snow in conjunction with the strong northwesterly winds 
  could cause visibilities to drop as low as one mile at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A high wind watch means there is potential for a hazardous high
wind event. Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings for updates
on this situation. Fasten loose objects or shelter objects in a
safe location prior to the onset of winds.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/afc

358 
WWAK72 PAFC 121859
NPWALU

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
959 AM AKST Fri Jan 12 2024

AKZ185-130200-
/O.UPG.PAFC.HW.A.0002.240113T0600Z-240113T2100Z/
/O.NEW.PAFC.HW.W.0003.240113T0800Z-240113T1800Z/
Eastern Aleutians-
Including the cities of Unalaska and Nikolski
959 AM AKST Fri Jan 12 2024

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM
AKST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 40 to 60 mph with gusts up to 75 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Eastern Aleutians, including Nikolski and Unalaska.

* WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 9 AM AKST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...High winds may move loose debris, damage property, 
  and cause power outages. Travel will be difficult.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...High winds will arrive first in Nikolski,
  then spread east to Dutch Harbor and Unalaska late tonight, and
  finally over to Akutan Saturday morning. As the winds
  strengthen, rain will change to snow. The combination of winds
  and falling snow will reduce visibility to less than one mile at
  times. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People are urged to secure loose objects that could be blown
around or damaged by the wind. Prepare for the possibility of
widespread power outages. Use caution if you must drive.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/afc

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
506 AM AKST Thu Jan 11 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

The blocking pattern remains in place today as a large arctic
airmass over Canada begins to surge south into the lower 48. An
amplified ridge has moved over Alaska, extending down through the
Gulf and into the far eastern Pacific. With the blocking pattern in
place, a series of lows will be forced to ride up the western
side of the ridge...gradually damping out the ridge before it
finally translates eastward this weekend. Plenty of mid and upper
level moisture has been streaming up the western side of the ridge
abundant cloud cover keeping the fog in check for most of
Southcentral. The exception this morning has been the lower
elevations of the Copper River basin, including Gulkana and
Glennallen down to Chitina where fog developed overnight. Despite
the colder air having worked into the Copper River Basin since
yesterday, fog has helped in keeping some areas from tanking into
the -20s to -30s this morning. Areas that have remained clear of
fog and low clouds in the Basin have seen temperatures fall into
the negative teens and 20s and should easily fall several more
degrees by sunrise. Elsewhere across Southcentral, mid and high
clouds have kept temperatures generally in the teens for the Mat-
Su Valley and the Anchorage Bowl, and 20s and 30s for much of the
Kenai Peninsula and Prince William Sound. Kodiak has been the warm
spot with temperatures in the upper 30s to near 40 as warm, moist
air and rain showers push northward.

The system lifting north towards the AKPen will bring rain showers
to Kodiak Island today and the eastern Kenai by tonight.
Temperatures for the lower elevations look to remain rain with
higher elevations seeing snow. Winds will increase over the Gulf as
the gradient increase with the approaching system. Colder air over
the northern Gulf will steepen lapse rates today and with some
instability to work with could see rain and snow showers develop
over the northern Gulf and coastal areas with the potential for some
higher gusts to work down to the surface. This first system will
quickly weaken as the surface low moves towards the southern AKPen,
but another system right on its heels will allow for another wave of
precipitation for Kodiak and the eastern Kenai for Saturday.
Easterly flow should keep the western side of the Kenai, the
Anchorage Bowl, and north into the Mat-Su Valley generally dry
through downsloping until the system pivots and flow becomes more
southerly later this weekend.

With cold air entrenched in the Copper Basin and approaching low to
the south, the resultant gradient will allow for gap flow winds in
all the usual spots through tomorrow.

- PP

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 2: Today through Sunday)...

Active weather is going to continue for the next several days for
Southwest and the Bering and Aleutians. A longwave trough with
two embedded low centers continues to encompass the Bering Sea and
Aleutians. One upper low center is located south of the western
Aleutians over the North Pacific, and the other center is located
over the Bering. Each upper low has an associated surface low. The
Bering Sea surface low is pushing its front into the Southwest
coast this morning and will bring a round of very strong winds
across across the Alaska Peninsula, across Bristol Bay, and
through the Kuskokwim Delta. Southeasterly winds will quickly
increase this morning and remain strong through tonight before
diminishing slowly on Friday. Winds will be especially strong for
coastal and interior Bristol Bay, where a Special Weather
Statement has been issued. For the Bristol Bay coast, expect
sustained winds of 30 to 45 mph with gusts up to 55 mph possible.
For interior Bristol Bay, expect sustained winds of 35 to 50 mph
with gusts up to 65 mph possible, peaking this afternoon through
early Friday morning. The areas that can expect to see the
strongest winds are Koliganek and New Stuyahok southeastward to
Iliamna and Igiugig. Due to strong cross-barrier flow, the
majority of the precipitation with this system will be focused
along the mountain ranges of Southwest Alaska while the regions
closer to sea level remain drier. The low and its front will
weaken as the low exits into eastern Russia on Friday.

The other aforementioned surface low currently south of the
western Aleutians is forecast to reach the central Aleutians by
this evening. On Friday night, it will then merge near the eastern
Aleutians with another incoming North Pacific low. This strong,
newly formed low is expected to track northeast to Southwest
Alaska later Saturday into Sunday. North to northwesterly cold air
advection wrapping around the backside of the low will promote
sustained storm force winds to develop across the central and
eastern Aleutians from Friday night through Saturday.

Further to the west, a Kamchatka low will extend its front to the
western Bering and Aleutians on Saturday night. The system is
expected to strengthen on Sunday as it tracks into the Bering.

-AF

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

The longwave trough stretching from the Russian Far East through
Bristol Bay continues its movement into the Western Bering and
reorients through the Sea of Okhotsk through Tuesday. A
significant shortwave pushes across Interior Alaska and the Gulf
by Tuesday. Widespread snow showers are expected across the
Interior. An upper level high moves into the Eastern Bering
through midweek. Ahead of this high, a well developed surface low
skips along the Alaska Peninsula before curving back into the
Eastern Bering through Wednesday. Precipitation starting as snow
will change to locally heavy rains across the AKPEN into Southwest
Alaska through the forecast period. Gusty surface winds with
local gale force gusts will spread from the Central Aleutians into
the Gulf of Alaska through Monday. As the surface high moves into
the Bering, gusty winds with areas of gale force gusts are
expected across the Western Aleutians Sunday and Monday, moving
into the Central Bering for Tuesday before dissipating.

Kutz

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Fog development for early morning Thursday is becoming
less of a concern with the increase in cloud cover and slightly
drier air near the surface moving over the airport complex.
Expect VFR ceilings and visibility through Thursday with light
northerly winds. No precipitation is expected through the TAF
period.

-TM

&&