High Wind Warning 3, NWS Anchorage, AK

381 
WWAK72 PAFC 130031
NPWALU

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
331 PM AKST Fri Jan 12 2024

AKZ185-131800-
/O.CON.PAFC.HW.W.0003.240113T0800Z-240113T1800Z/
Eastern Aleutians-
Including the cities of Unalaska and Nikolski
331 PM AKST Fri Jan 12 2024

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM
AKST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 40 to 60 mph with gusts up to 75 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Eastern Aleutians, including Nikolski and Unalaska.

* WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 9 AM AKST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...High winds may move loose debris, damage property, 
  and cause power outages. Travel will be difficult.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...High winds will arrive first in Nikolski,
  then spread east to Dutch Harbor and Unalaska late tonight, and
  finally over to Akutan Saturday morning. As the winds
  strengthen, rain will change to snow. The combination of winds
  and falling snow will reduce visibility to less than one mile at
  times. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People are urged to secure loose objects that could be blown
around or damaged by the wind. Prepare for the possibility of
widespread power outages. Use caution if you must drive.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/afc

186 
WWAK72 PAFC 130418
NPWALU

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
718 PM AKST Fri Jan 12 2024

AKZ181-130800-
/O.NEW.PAFC.HW.W.0004.240113T0418Z-240113T0800Z/
Alaska Peninsula-
Including the cities of Cold Bay and Sand Point
718 PM AKST Fri Jan 12 2024

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR
COLD BAY...

* WHAT...Southeast winds 50 to 60 mph with gusts up to 80 mph.

* WHERE...Cold Bay

* WHEN...Until 11 PM AKST this evening.

* IMPACTS...High winds may move loose debris, damage property, 
  and cause power outages. Travel will be difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People are urged to secure loose objects that could be blown
around or damaged by the wind. Prepare for the possibility of
widespread power outages. Use caution if you must drive.

&&

$$

AKZ185-131800-
/O.CON.PAFC.HW.W.0003.240113T0800Z-240113T1800Z/
Eastern Aleutians-
Including the cities of Unalaska and Nikolski
718 PM AKST Fri Jan 12 2024

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO
9 AM AKST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 40 to 60 mph with gusts up to 80 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Eastern Aleutians.

* WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 9 AM AKST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...High winds may move loose debris, damage property, 
  and cause power outages. Travel will be difficult.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...High winds will arrive first in Nikolski,
  then spread east to Dutch Harbor and Unalaska late tonight, and
  finally over to Akutan Saturday morning. As the winds
  strengthen, rain will change to snow. The combination of winds
  and falling snow will reduce visibility to less than one mile at
  times. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People are urged to secure loose objects that could be blown
around or damaged by the wind. Prepare for the possibility of
widespread power outages. Use caution if you must drive.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/afc

333 
WWAK72 PAFC 130759
NPWALU

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1059 PM AKST Fri Jan 12 2024

AKZ181-130900-
/O.EXP.PAFC.HW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-240113T0800Z/
Alaska Peninsula-
Including the cities of Cold Bay and Sand Point
1059 PM AKST Fri Jan 12 2024

...HIGH WIND WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 11 PM AKST THIS EVENING...

Southeasterly winds have decreased below warning criteria. There
could still be a few isolated gusts to 70 mph during the next 
hour or two before winds begin to decrease further. A second round
of elevated winds from the west-northwest is anticipated late 
Saturday morning into the evening hours. Winds will finally taper 
off during the late evening hours Saturday into the overnight.


$$

AKZ185-131800-
/O.CON.PAFC.HW.W.0003.240113T0800Z-240113T1800Z/
Eastern Aleutians-
Including the cities of Unalaska and Nikolski
1059 PM AKST Fri Jan 12 2024

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM AKST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 40 to 60 mph with gusts up to 80 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Eastern Aleutians.

* WHEN...From 11 PM this evening to 9 AM AKST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...High winds may move loose debris, damage property, 
  and cause power outages. Travel will be difficult.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...High winds will arrive first in Nikolski, 
  then spread east to Dutch Harbor and Unalaska late tonight, 
  and finally over to Akutan Saturday morning. As the winds 
  strengthen, rain will change to snow. The combination of winds 
  and falling snow will reduce visibility to less than one mile 
  at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People are urged to secure loose objects that could be blown
around or damaged by the wind. Prepare for the possibility of
widespread power outages. Use caution if you must drive.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/afc

695 
WWAK72 PAFC 131748
NPWALU

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
848 AM AKST Sat Jan 13 2024

AKZ185-131900-
/O.EXP.PAFC.HW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-240113T1800Z/
Eastern Aleutians-
Including the cities of Unalaska and Nikolski
848 AM AKST Sat Jan 13 2024

...HIGH WIND WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM AKST THIS MORNING...

Strong northwesterly winds have decreased below warning criteria for 
Nikolski and Dutch Harbor. Winds will further subside through the 
day today.

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/afc

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
538 AM AKST Fri Jan 12 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

The amplified ridge that has been parked over Alaska and the Gulf
will begin to shift slightly off to the east today. The frontal
boundary that has been lifting towards and into the Gulf will begin
to mix out over the northern Gulf as the surface low moves north
into the AKPen. Models seem to be in good agreement with the
southern portion of this front developing a new low that will move
east into the PacNW. With cold airmass still firmly entrenched over
Canada and the eastern Gulf, the ridge will not make it very far
east before stalling again. However, the frontal boundary and
associated developing new low will help to dampen out the ridge
before it begins to amplify once again on Saturday. With the help of
another system lifting up into the Bering from the North Pacific,
the ridge will finally displace the Canadian low northwards as it
moves over western Canada by Sunday night.

The strong gradient that resulted in storm and gale force winds over
the Gulf, Barren Islands, and Kamishak Bay are gradually decreasing
this morning as the gradient relaxes over the northern Gulf. Gap
winds will also subside today. This first round of precipitation has
moved out of Kodiak with the western Kenai seeing light to moderate
rain and snow showers. Precipitation will also gradually taper off
over the Kenai and western Prince William Sound, but could see up to
a few inches of snow for the lower elevations, including Seward and
Whittier. As slightly warmer temperatures work into these lower
elevations today...may see enough of a bump to see a change-over to
some rain or a rain/snow mix at times. The western Kenai up through
the Mat-Su Valley should remain downsloped, but may see some
flurries pass through. However, measurable snowfall looks to hold
off until later this weekend.

Overall, the weather should remain pretty quiet for much of inland
Southcentral for today and into Saturday. Another low will dig south
of the Aleutian Chain through today before lifting towards southwest
Alaska tomorrow. The associated front will sweep eastwards through
the AKPen and western Gulf bringing another round of rain for Kodiak
Island and the eastern Kenai. There is a chance that precipitation
will work up Cook Inlet to the Anchorage Bowl and north into the
Valley by Sunday as flow becomes more southerly. The caveat will be
which model solution plays out as right now models are not in very
good agreement with either the position or the timing of the
associated trough and frontal boundary, nor the track of the surface
low. Right now, could see light light snowfall of up to a few inches
for lower elevations and a few more inches for hillside areas of
Anchorage and Eagle River; however, details will continue to be
refined as models come into better agreement.

- PP

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Sunday night)...

Active weather looks to continue throughout the short-term period
across the Bering Sea, Aleutian Chain, and Southwest Alaska.
Currently, a low pressure takes up residence in the south-central
Bering Sea. Its front has made it to the Pribilof Islands where
Saint Paul reports light snow. Meanwhile, mainland Southwest
Alaska sees precipitation begin to taper off as the frontal
system that brought all the active weather along the coast for the
last few days weakens and begins to fizzle out. However, the front
that is currently over the Pribilofs will push eastward through
today and make to coastal southwest later this morning providing
another round of light precipitation through much of the day.
Southerly flow will also strengthen through much of the day along
the coasts of Bristol Bay and Kuskokwim Bay. Water levels may rise
3 to 5 feet above normal highest tide for Kuskokwim Bay tonight
through Saturday morning with 2 feet above normal highest tide for
Bristol Bay. Bristol Bay could see an additional water level rise
of 2 to 4 feet Saturday evening through early Sunday morning with
a second round of strong southerly flow.

Attention quickly shifts to a North Pacific low lifting northward
to the Eastern Aleutians tonight and crossing into the Bering Sea
Saturday morning. Temperatures will initially be warm enough for
rain. However, strong cold air advection behind the low will turn
precipitation over to snow Saturday morning. The bigger story with
this system will indeed be the winds on the backside of the low
Friday night into Saturday for the Eastern Aleutians. A High Wind
Watch remains out for this evening through Saturday morning to
address the potential of winds gusting to 75 mph from Nikolski to
Unalaska and Akutan. Visibility could be reduced to as low as one
mile at times once snow begins Saturday morning.

Strong southeasterly winds from this system also look affect the
southern Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN) Friday evening for locations
like Cold Bay and False Pass. There will be a lull in the winds
Saturday morning before they pick up again Saturday afternoon with
a second round of gusty winds from the west. As this low moves
across the Aleutian Chain and into the Bering Saturday morning,
its front clips the Pribilofs late tonight into Saturday morning.
A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued to address reductions in
visibility to one-half mile at times due to snow falling in
conjunction with strong gusty northwest winds.

This low will continue to move northeastward and make it to
coastal Southwest by Saturday evening spreading precipitation
inland. This impactful looks to finally move northward of the area
Sunday towards the Bering Strait region. Cold air advection into
mainland Southwest from the Bering continues into Sunday with snow
showers continuing as well. Meanwhile, another low around
Kamchatka sends its front eastward over the Western Aleutians
Saturday and Sunday and eventually makes it to the Central
Aleutians Sunday evening. Accompanying this front will be a warm
push of southerly winds with cold air on the back side.

-DAN

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through Thursday)...

An upper level ridge extends across the Bering through the
forecast period. A series of weak lows stream across from the
Russian Chukchi Coast and Arctic to develop a deepening trough
along the Alaska-Canada Border. A surface front riding over the
Bering portion of the ridge brings gusty winds with areas of gale
force gusts from the Western Aleutians into Western Alaska,
diminishing early Tuesday. Gusty Easterly winds remain South of
the Aleutians through Thursday. Moderate outflow winds develop
across Southcentral Alaska after midweek.

Kutz

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light northerly winds will persist.

-TM

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
National Weather Service ANCHORAGE AK
543 AM AKST Fri Jan 12 2024

AKZ155-130300-
Kuskokwim Delta-
Including the cities of Bethel and Nunivak Island
543 AM AKST Fri Jan 12 2024

...STRONG WINDS WITH ELEVATED WATER LEVELS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING ALONG THE NORTHERN KUSKOKWIM BAY
COAST...

Gale force southeasterly winds with gusts to 50 mph will increase
Friday afternoon as a strong storm system moves into the eastern
Bering. The strong winds are expected result in elevated water
levels with the potential for water pushing up through cracks in
the ice and ice pushing up on shore along south facing
shorelines. The greatest chance for elevated water levels and
potential ice shoves is expected to be along the Northern
Kuskokwim Bay coast from Kipnuk east to Kongiganak.

Water levels may rise to between 3 and 5 feet above normal
highest tide by Friday evening through Saturday morning.
Residents with interests along the coast should move items well
above the normal high tide line.

AKZ161-130300-
Bristol Bay-
Including the cities of King Salmon, Dillingham, Naknek,
and Pilot Point
543 AM AKST Fri Jan 12 2024

...STRONG WINDS WITH ELEVATED WATER LEVELS POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ALONG THE NORTHERN BRISTOL BAY COAST...

Gale force southeasterly winds with gusts to 50 mph will increase
Friday afternoon as a strong storm system moves into the eastern
Bering. The strong winds are expected result in elevated water
levels with the potential for water pushing up through cracks in
the ice and ice pushing up on shore along south facing
shorelines. The greatest chance for elevated water levels and
potential ice shoves is expected to be along the Northern Bristol
Bay coast from Dillingham west.

Water levels may rise up to 2 feet above normal highest tide by
Friday night and between 2 and 4 feet above normal highest tide
Saturday evening through early Sunday morning. Residents with
interests along the coast should move items well above the normal
high tide line.

AKZ181-130300-
Alaska Peninsula-
Including the cities of Cold Bay and Sand Point
543 AM AKST Fri Jan 12 2024

...STRONG WINDS ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

A powerful storm system moving from the North Pacific into the
Bering Sea by Saturday morning will bring another round of very
strong winds to the Alaska Peninsula. Southeasterly winds will
quickly increase Friday morning with sustained winds of 35 to 50
mph and gusts up to 70 mph possible by Friday evening. The
strongest winds are expected through Friday night before
diminishing overnight into early Saturday morning. Winds will then
turn westerly and increase again with sustained winds of 30 to 45
mph with gusts to 65 mph possible from around noon Saturday
through late Saturday evening. Snow showers will likely accompany
the gusty winds on Saturday. The combination of snow and gusty
winds may reduce visibility at times.