High Wind Warning 1, NWS Anchorage, AK

807 
WWAK72 PAFC 030000
NPWALU

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
300 PM AKST Tue Jan 2 2024

AKZ161-031400-
/O.CON.PAFC.HW.W.0001.240103T0300Z-240103T1400Z/
Bristol Bay-
Including the cities of King Salmon, Dillingham, Naknek, 
and Pilot Point
300 PM AKST Tue Jan 2 2024

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
5 AM AKST WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...East winds 30 to 45 mph with gusts of 55 to 70 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Interior Bristol Bay, including Iliamna, Koliganek, 
  and New Stuyahok.

* WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 5 AM AKST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...High winds may move loose debris, damage property, 
  and cause power outages. Travel will be difficult. Gusty winds 
  may cause blowing and drifting of snow.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Winds over interior Bristol Bay will peak 
  late this evening into the overnight hours. Although not quite 
  as strong, gusts of 50 to 60 mph are also expected along the 
  Alaska Peninsula south of King Salmon, including Port Heiden, 
  Pilot Point, and Egegik. For King Salmon and Naknek over to 
  the Dillingham area, winds will be a bit weaker, with gusts of 
  35 to 45 mph. Temperatures will remain above freezing across 
  the region, with precipitation falling as mostly rain. There 
  will be some snow at the start for inland areas, with low 
  visibilities as the high winds blow the falling snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People are urged to secure loose objects that could be blown
around or damaged by the wind. Prepare for the possibility of
widespread power outages. Use caution if you must drive.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/afc

962 
WWAK72 PAFC 031353
NPWALU

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
453 AM AKST Wed Jan 3 2024

AKZ161-031500-
/O.EXP.PAFC.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-240103T1400Z/
Bristol Bay-
Including the cities of King Salmon, Dillingham, Naknek, 
and Pilot Point
453 AM AKST Wed Jan 3 2024

...HIGH WIND WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 5 AM AKST EARLY THIS
MORNING...

Winds have started to come down will continue to gradually 
diminish through the day today as the front exits to the north.

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/afc

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
457 AM AKST Tue Jan 2 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Thursday)...

The low southwest of Kodiak has rapidly weakened as expected and
can hardly be seen on satellite early this morning. The front
that extended out of this low is moving northward over the Gulf of
Alaska and it did spin up a closed low along it which was a
question from yesterday. This low is much more prominent on
satellite in the central Gulf than its parent low and is
producing Gale force winds along much of the Gulf coast. This low
will also rapidly weaken over the course of the day, but not
before bringing rain to the eastern Kenai Peninsula with light
snow inland over the Kenai Mountains. Kodiak will stay in the rain
and wind as this front moves through this morning and then the
next, stronger, front moves into the area by this evening. This
second front is associated with a very large and still
strengthening low just south of the central Aleutians this
morning. This low will stall out in the eastern Bering Sea for
most of the remainder of the week and keep mild, southeasterly
flow moving into Southcentral Alaska the rest of the week.

This pattern will increase the northeasterly winds out of the
Matanuska River Valley today and likely bring in wind gusts from
35 to 50 mph into the Palmer and Wasilla areas late tonight
through Wednesday. There may be some areas of blowing and
drifting snow with these winds.

A strong front associated with this Aleutian low will move across
Kodiak tonight and then weaken some as it moves to the north Gulf
coast Wednesday. There will be a mix of rain and snow with this
front for the Kenai Peninsula and north Gulf coast on Wednesday.
Upslope areas on the windward side of the mountains will see the
vast majority of the precipitation with inland areas on the lee
side of the mountains downsloping out. By Wednesday night, some
colder air aloft will trickle into the area due to the occluding
low and should begin to shift the dominant precipitation type back
to snow for most of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

The forecast is largely on track with a large, strong, deep low
moving towards the Aleutian Chain. The models are all showing this
system dropping to around 937 mb this morning. The front attached
to this behemoth moves over the Central and Eastern Aleutians this
morning, and then tracks up the Alaska Peninsula towards the
Southwest coast through this afternoon. Storm force winds and high
end gales are approaching the Aleutians currently. Adak's latest
observation at 4am had a peak wind gust of 53 mph and Dutch Harbor
at 47 mph. Strong winds will continue pushing northward along the
southern Alaska Peninsula today. Colder air will hold on over the
Central Aleutians this morning, keeping precipitation all snow.
The Winter Storm Warning for the area remains in effect.
Temperatures should rise by this afternoon, allowing snow to
transition to a rain/snow mix or all rain. Additionally, winds for
this area will come down below storm force, but will remain in
higher end gales.

Reverting the discussion back to winds: the High Wind Watch
remains in effect for Bristol Bay. Overall, warning level winds
are NOT expected for most areas, however, wind gusts reaching 60
mph are possible, namely along the Alaska Peninsula south of King
Salmon, as well as along the higher elevations. BUT! Areas
particularly vulnerable to the strong easterly winds racing out of
Kamishak Gap may see warning criteria wind gusts to 75 mph, this
includes Iliamna, Koliganek, and New Stuyahok.

Moving further along the coast, the Winter Storm Watch has been
upgraded to a Blizzard Warning for the Kuskokwim Delta coast and
Nunivak Island tonight. Wind gusts to 50 mph are possible and
areas of blowing snow will bring visibilities down to a quarter
mile at times with snow accumulations between 1 to 3 inches
possible.

Lastly, not wanting to leave the Pribilof's out of all this
wintertime fun, they too will see high end winds with gusts to 55
mph possible this afternoon into this evening. Winds switch to
northeasterly overnight and will begin to weaken. There is a
chance for snow and blowing snow so long as the cold air holds in
place this evening.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

Active weather continues for the long-term forecast. Confidence is
high that yet another strong low will move into the Bering Sea on
Friday. However, model differences in the the exact low track are
leading to lower forecast confidence for specific impacts. We
will be monitoring the following hazards, with additional hazards
possible but difficult to pin down at this time:

* High Winds: Western and Central Aleutians, Saturday Jan 6
* Heavy Precipitation: Eastern Kenai Peninsula and Prince William
  Sound, Saturday Jan 6 through Sunday Jan 7

Diving into the details, Friday begins with an occluding Bering
Sea low moving into Southwest Alaska, bringing persistent showers
to much of the Southern Alaska coastline. By Friday afternoon, a
strong, 950-960 mb North Pacific low pushes its front into the
Aleutian Islands. The low itself appears to move into the Bering
Sea by Sat afternoon, bringing sustained winds to gale or even
storm force around the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands. Depending
on the track of the low, the bands of vorticity rotating around
it, and the strength of the cold air advection wrapping around it,
high wind products are not out of the question for Saturday in
the Aleutians.

In addition to high winds, heavy precipitation will also be a
concern. Current thinking is that although precipitation will be
moderate to heavy as the front pushes into the Aleutians, the
front itself will be moving quickly enough to keep precipitation
totals from climbing too high. In fact, Southcentral Alaska, along
the north Gulf coast, will have a higher chance of seeing heavy
precipitation from Saturday through Sunday as the front slows
down due to the low's occlusion. The Aleutian Islands will likely
see rain as 850 mb temperatures climb as high as 2-3 degrees
Celsius, but chances of seeing rain are lower in Southcentral as
cold air wraps back around with the occlusion.

- KC

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will persist. Low level wind shear is
expected to develop this morning as surface winds will be
northerly with winds aloft increasing to southeast 25 to 30 kt at
the 2000 ft level. These winds aloft may increase more than
current 30 kt so that is something to watch as the day goes on.

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
National Weather Service ANCHORAGE AK
403 AM AKST Tue Jan 2 2024

AKZ112-030130-
Matanuska Valley-
Including the cities of Palmer, Wasilla, Sutton, and Chickaloon
403 AM AKST Tue Jan 2 2024

...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALIZED AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Northeast winds will steadily strengthen across the Matanuska
Valley today and then peak late tonight into Wednesday afternoon.
Wind gusts are expected to reach 40 to 50 mph late tonight and
Wednesday before starting to diminish some Wednesday night.

While the recent cold and dry weather has lessened the amount of
transportable snow by forming a crust on top of it, the winds
will be strong enough to produce localized areas of blowing and
drifting snow. Expect some areas where snow drifts cause difficult
driving conditions.