Gale Warning 99, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Jan 25, 2024, 2:35 PM AKST (23:35 UTC)

Expired

Jan 26, 2024, 3:45 AM AKST

In force

13 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

802 
FZAK51 PAFC 252335
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
235 PM AKST Thu Jan 25 2024

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-261245-
235 PM AKST Thu Jan 25 2024
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1002 low 45 nm southwest of Middleton Island moves northeast as
it dissipates this evening. A 982 low 404 nm south of Middleton 
Island Friday morning strengthens to 979 as it moves 243 nm south
of Middleton Island Friday evening. It is then 35 nm northeast of
Middleton Island Saturday morning. A new 978 low forms 320 nm 
south of Middleton Island Saturday evening.

$$

PKZ710-261245-
Cape Suckling to Gravel Point out to 15 NM-
235 PM AKST Thu Jan 25 2024

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ711-261245-
Gravel Point to Cape Cleare out to 15 NM-
235 PM AKST Thu Jan 25 2024

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ712-261245-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare from 15 to 75 NM-
235 PM AKST Thu Jan 25 2024

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ715-261245-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point out to 15 NM-
235 PM AKST Thu Jan 25 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Gusts to 50 kt out of Resurrection Bay. 
Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ716-261245-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point from 15 to 75 NM-
235 PM AKST Thu Jan 25 2024

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ714-261245-
Resurrection Bay-
235 PM AKST Thu Jan 25 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft building to 5 ft after midnight. Freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing 
spray.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ724-261245-
Northwest Prince William Sound-
235 PM AKST Thu Jan 25 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ725-261245-
Central and Eastern Prince William Sound-
235 PM AKST Thu Jan 25 2024

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow and rain.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ726-261245-
Southwest Prince William Sound-
235 PM AKST Thu Jan 25 2024

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ720-261245-
Port of Valdez-
235 PM AKST Thu Jan 25 2024

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ721-261245-
Valdez Narrows-
235 PM AKST Thu Jan 25 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ722-261245-
Valdez Arm-
235 PM AKST Thu Jan 25 2024

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ723-261245-
Passage Canal-
235 PM AKST Thu Jan 25 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing 
spray.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ730-261245-
West of Barren Islands Including Kamishak Bay-
235 PM AKST Thu Jan 25 2024

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 10 ft. Extreme freezing spray
at a rate of 4 cm per hour or greater may rapidly accumulate on 
vessels.
.SAT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ731-261245-
Barren Islands East-
235 PM AKST Thu Jan 25 2024

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ733-261245-
Gore Point to Marmot Island from 15 to 80 NM-
235 PM AKST Thu Jan 25 2024

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ732-261245-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak out to 15 NM-
235 PM AKST Thu Jan 25 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt except N 25 kt N of Dangerous Cape.
Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt except N 30 kt N of Dangerous Cape. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ734-261245-
Marmot Island To Sitkinak from 15 to 85 NM-
235 PM AKST Thu Jan 25 2024

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 30 kt except N 35 kt N of Dangerous Cape.
Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ736-261245-
Chiniak Bay-
235 PM AKST Thu Jan 25 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ737-261245-
Marmot Bay-
235 PM AKST Thu Jan 25 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ738-261245-
Shelikof Strait-
235 PM AKST Thu Jan 25 2024

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ742-261245-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
235 PM AKST Thu Jan 25 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Gusts to 50 kt out of bays and passes. 
Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ740-261245-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
235 PM AKST Thu Jan 25 2024

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable
less than 10 kt.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE wind 10 kt.

$$

PKZ741-261245-
Kachemak Bay-
235 PM AKST Thu Jan 25 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt except N 20 kt in the outer bay.
Seas 2 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt except N 20 kt in the outer bay.
Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt except N 25 kt in the outer bay.
Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Jan 25, 5:17 AM AKST, 9 hours 18 minutes earlier.

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
517 AM AKST Thu Jan 25 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Generally quiet weather will continue for Thursday across much of
southcentral Alaska. Satellite imagery shows the area on the bottom
periphery of a broad mid/upper-level trough across the state. Nearly
clear skies overnight have resulted in another night of excellent
radiational cooling and temperatures dropping below 0 for much of
the area, with locations in the Copper River Basin and Susitna
Valley below -20. Nighttime microphysics imagery shows that fog/low
stratus has developed in some places such as the Copper River Basin
and along portions of Anchorage, as well as localized spots along
the western Kenai Peninsula. The primary forecast challenge in
regards to today's weather will be possible dissipation of the fog
and how that'll relate to temperature trends throughout the day.

Active weather enters the forecast period as we head towards the end
of the week. On Friday, the the aforementioned upper-level troughing
across Alaska starts to amplify, with the mean trough axis extending
across the western portion of the state. Meanwhile, a low across the
northern Pacific will begin to pivot northward towards the Gulf of
Alaska. As very cold air spills out of SW Alaska and into the Gulf
of Alaska, an intensifying frontal/baroclinic zone will set up
across the Gulf of Alaska. This frontal orientation along with a
deepening and slow-moving longwave mean trough axis centered across
the western side of the state will set up prolonged southerly
flow and a pattern for several storms affecting the eastern
portion of mainland Alaska.

Models have gradually become better aligned and have entered
"believable"-territory with regards to Friday-Sunday weather. Can't
rule out some light snow for either the Copper River Basin and
Prince William Sound on Friday as models hint at saturating
dendritic growth zone (in the low-levels thanks to the pre-existing
cold air) coincident with a weak trough axis moving through. The
main show begins Friday night as southerly flow deepens in the
central/eastern Gulf thanks to the amplifying pattern. Upper-level
divergence underneath the naturally divergence region of the right-
entrance region of a supergeostrophic jet streak, strong warm air
advection, and plenty of moisture advection with a southerly fetch
deep into the North Pacific will combine to create a widespread and
fairly substantial precipitation. Confidence is highest that the
most precip (/snow) will occur along and east of the Richardson
Highway from Valdez northward through Glennallen and Paxson.
Several feet of snow is becoming likely for Thompson Pass area,
with several inches elsewhere along the highway.

Model spread, while getting become better, is still large enough
such that there remains high uncertainty right along the frontal
zone. About a third of models/ensembles bring precipitation along
the Seward and southern/western Glenn Highway while about two thirds
of models remain dry. Of the models showing precip, about a third of
those are showing Anchorage and the Mat Valley getting 6-12 inches
late Friday through Saturday. So could we get quite a bit more snow
here in the Anchorage bowl? Is it likely? Not appearing so at this
very time... but slight changes in storm track would mean quite the
difference in this case.

Perhaps the bigger story for Anchorage and much of Alaska is the
persistent cold weather that is likely to get even colder. Lows
below 0 (and largely below -10) are likely to continue for most
areas outside of the immediate coast for the next several days.

-Brown

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Upper level high pressure is currently over the Western Aleutians
and continues to slide west as a strong low lingering just south
of the Aleutian Chain weakens through early Friday. Over the
mainland, zonal flow predominates through Friday morning. Skies
will remain mostly clear across Southwest into portions of
Southcentral and the eastern Bering sea as cold air remains in
place with offshore flow.

An upper level trough will develop over the mainland interior
dipping into Southwest Friday afternoon. This will open the door
for more cold air advection and increasing winds to the end of
this week. Winds may become more northerly as the trough deepens
southward, and increase up to gale force. With the cold air
advection, winds could become gusty through susceptible terrain
gaps. Confidence remains low with regards to precise wind speed
and temperature values due to variations between model runs,
however, there is moderate to high confidence for frigid
temperatures and higher wind by Friday. Wind chill temperatures
over much of Southwest is likely to dip into the minus 40 to minus
50 degrees Fahrenheit range. In the lower Kuskokwim Valley wind
chill temperatures may reach minus 50 to minus 60 Fahrenheit.
Heavy freezing spray will consequently return toward the end of
the week with ice accretion of at least 4 cm per hour near the ice
edge in the eastern Bering beginning as soon as after midnight
into Friday morning, potentially lasting into next week.

As cold air moves over relatively warmer sea surface temperatures
and winds increase from the north, ocean effect snow showers
could develop across the Bering Sea and becoming more prominent as
yet another embedded trough develops in the north Bering and
reinforces cold air southward for Saturday. Blowing snow and
reduced visibility could become an issue with the snow showers
moving across the Pribilofs, the eastern Aleutians, and the Alaska
Peninsula.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through
Tuesday)...

The beginning of the weekend will see a trough developing over
central/western Alaska. With the north-south alignment of the
trough, hazardous cold temperatures are possible along the western
portion of the trough, extending into portions of southwest
Alaska. These conditions would persist through the weekend, but
are possible to extend into early next week. With an increasing
pressure gradient forming through the Bering, strong gap winds
across the western Aleutian islands are currently projected during
the weekend.

Through the end of the weekend into early next week, uncertainty
remains on the potential of shortwaves forming in the eastern Gulf
of Alaska, as well as their track. Presently, a series of
shortwaves are expected to provide increased precipitation along
the Alaska Panhandle and will stretch as far west as the eastern
portions of Prince William Sound. Previous model guidance had the
majority of the heavy precipitation primarily along the Alaska
Panhandle, but there are some trends that are starting to suggest
more precipitation closer to Southcentral. Increased model
agreement closer to the event will help with the confidence of
this forecast in the coming days. Additionally, regardless of the
exact location of the trough and shortwaves, gap winds are likely
with this system. The main region of increased gap winds will
extend from the eastern Bering to the western portions of Cook
Inlet and the Alaska Range. Overall, the positioning of the trough
over Alaska in the coming days will play a significant role in
the placement of strong winds and heavy precipitation throughout
the weekend and early next week.

BS

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Nearby fog and low stratus will result in intermittent
IFR/LIFR ceilings and vsbys through late morning. Categorical
improvements to ceilings and vsbys expected through the day,
however, intermittent fog will be possible once again late
tonight through early tomorrow morning. Winds will remain light
and variable.

&&

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2024Every gale warning in 2024

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.