Gale Warning 97, NWS Anchorage, AK

802 
FZAK51 PAFC 252335
CWFAER

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
235 PM AKST Thu Jan 25 2024

Coastal Waters Forecast for the Northern Gulf of Alaska Coast
up to 100 nm out including Kodiak Island and Cook Inlet.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ197-261245-
235 PM AKST Thu Jan 25 2024
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1002 low 45 nm southwest of Middleton Island moves northeast as
it dissipates this evening. A 982 low 404 nm south of Middleton 
Island Friday morning strengthens to 979 as it moves 243 nm south
of Middleton Island Friday evening. It is then 35 nm northeast of
Middleton Island Saturday morning. A new 978 low forms 320 nm 
south of Middleton Island Saturday evening.

$$

PKZ710-261245-
Cape Suckling to Gravel Point out to 15 NM-
235 PM AKST Thu Jan 25 2024

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ711-261245-
Gravel Point to Cape Cleare out to 15 NM-
235 PM AKST Thu Jan 25 2024

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ712-261245-
Cape Suckling to Cape Cleare from 15 to 75 NM-
235 PM AKST Thu Jan 25 2024

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt becoming E 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ715-261245-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point out to 15 NM-
235 PM AKST Thu Jan 25 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI...N wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Gusts to 50 kt out of Resurrection Bay. 
Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ716-261245-
Cape Cleare to Gore Point from 15 to 75 NM-
235 PM AKST Thu Jan 25 2024

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ714-261245-
Resurrection Bay-
235 PM AKST Thu Jan 25 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft building to 5 ft after midnight. Freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Freezing 
spray.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ724-261245-
Northwest Prince William Sound-
235 PM AKST Thu Jan 25 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ725-261245-
Central and Eastern Prince William Sound-
235 PM AKST Thu Jan 25 2024

.TONIGHT...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow and rain.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ726-261245-
Southwest Prince William Sound-
235 PM AKST Thu Jan 25 2024

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...N wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ720-261245-
Port of Valdez-
235 PM AKST Thu Jan 25 2024

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt diminishing to 10 kt after midnight.
Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Snow.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ721-261245-
Valdez Narrows-
235 PM AKST Thu Jan 25 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 3 ft. Snow.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...N wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ722-261245-
Valdez Arm-
235 PM AKST Thu Jan 25 2024

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.FRI...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft. Snow.
.SAT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ723-261245-
Passage Canal-
235 PM AKST Thu Jan 25 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing 
spray.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...W wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ730-261245-
West of Barren Islands Including Kamishak Bay-
235 PM AKST Thu Jan 25 2024

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 10 ft. Extreme freezing spray
at a rate of 4 cm per hour or greater may rapidly accumulate on 
vessels.
.SAT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ731-261245-
Barren Islands East-
235 PM AKST Thu Jan 25 2024

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ733-261245-
Gore Point to Marmot Island from 15 to 80 NM-
235 PM AKST Thu Jan 25 2024

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ732-261245-
Marmot Island to Sitkinak out to 15 NM-
235 PM AKST Thu Jan 25 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt except N 25 kt N of Dangerous Cape.
Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt except N 30 kt N of Dangerous Cape. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ734-261245-
Marmot Island To Sitkinak from 15 to 85 NM-
235 PM AKST Thu Jan 25 2024

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 30 kt except N 35 kt N of Dangerous Cape.
Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ736-261245-
Chiniak Bay-
235 PM AKST Thu Jan 25 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.

$$

PKZ737-261245-
Marmot Bay-
235 PM AKST Thu Jan 25 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ738-261245-
Shelikof Strait-
235 PM AKST Thu Jan 25 2024

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ742-261245-
Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-
235 PM AKST Thu Jan 25 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Gusts to 50 kt out of bays and passes. 
Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 15 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...N wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ740-261245-
Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-
235 PM AKST Thu Jan 25 2024

.TONIGHT...N wind 10 kt.
.FRI...NE wind 10 kt.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable
less than 10 kt.
.SAT...N wind 10 kt.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE wind 10 kt.

$$

PKZ741-261245-
Kachemak Bay-
235 PM AKST Thu Jan 25 2024

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt except N 20 kt in the outer bay.
Seas 2 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI...Variable wind 10 kt except N 20 kt in the outer bay.
Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 15 kt except N 25 kt in the outer bay.
Seas 3 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
522 PM AKST Wed Jan 24 2024

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Most of Southcentral will see a continuation of bone chilling
cold temperatures and clear skies tonight, Thursday and Friday.
The gusty gap winds in Seward and Whittier will persist.

However, there is a major moisture laden storm that is currently
near Hawaii and 3 global models bring this system to Southcentral
Alaska Saturday. This system is juiced and will result in a major
pattern change for much of Southcentral. Two of the 3 global
models bring the moisture fetch into Prince William Sound,
Thompson Pass, Valdez and Cordova. One of the global models
actually has a more westerly track for the plume of moisture which
includes Anchorage. Regardless of which global model solution we
go with Thompson Pass, Valdez and Cordova are going to get
hammered on Saturday and Sunday. Because of the uncertainty for
Anchorage, it is still too early to tell exactly how Anchorage
will be impacted. The situation is actively being monitored and
as new runs of the global models become available the situation
for Anchorage will be re-evaluated.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Upper level high pressure is currently over the Western Aleutians
and continuing to slide west as a strong low lingering just south
of the Aleutian Chain weakens through early Friday. Over the
mainland, zonal flow predominates with a shortwave trough south of
the Alaska-Canada border jutting into the northern Gulf of
Alaska. Skies will remain mostly clear across Southwest into
portions of Southcentral and the eastern Bering sea as cold air
remains in place with offshore flow.

A weak compact trough leaving the Gulf of Anadyr is dipping south
into the Bering Sea before it stalls and weakens near Nunivak
Island Thursday morning. This will mainly bring 20 kt winds and a
20 percent chance of light snowfall for the marine areas before it
gets reabsorbed into the flow farther west.

An upper level trough will follow closely behind over the
mainland interior dipping into Southwest. This will open the door
to reinvigorate cold air advection and increasing winds Thursday
afternoon to at least the end of this week. Winds may become more
northerly as the trough deepens south and speeds increase to gale
force. With the cold air advection, winds could become especially
gusty through susceptible terrain gaps. Confidence remains low
with regards to precise wind speed and temperature values due to
variations between model runs, however, moderate to high
confidence remains for increasing winds and frigid temperatures by
Friday. Widespread wind chill temperatures over much of Southwest
is likely to dip into the minus 40 to minus 50 degrees Fahrenheit
range. Over the lower Kuskokwim Valley, even colder to minus 60
Fahrenheit. Heavy freezing spray will consequently return toward
the end of the week with ice accretion of at least 4 cm per hour
near the ice edge in the eastern Bering beginning as soon as after
midnight into Friday morning. It could last into next week.

As cold air moves over relatively warmer sea surface temperatures
and winds increase from the north, ocean effect snow showers
could develop across the Bering Sea and becoming more prominent as
yet another embedded trough develops in the north Bering and
reinforces cold air southward for Saturday. Blowing snow and
reduced visibility could become an issue with the snow showers
moving across the Pribilofs, the eastern Aleutians, and the Alaska
Peninsula.

rux

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through
Tuesday)...

The beginning of the weekend will see a trough developing over
central/western Alaska. With the north-south alignment of the
trough, hazardous cold temperatures are possible along the western
portion of the trough, extending into portions of southwest
Alaska. These conditions would persist through the weekend, but
are possible to extend into early next week. With an increasing
pressure gradient forming through the Bering, strong gap winds
across the western Aleutian Islands are currently projected
during the weekend.

Through the end of the weekend into early next week, uncertainty
remains on the potential of shortwaves forming in the eastern Gulf
of Alaska, as well as their track. Presently, a series of
shortwaves are expected to provide increased precipitation along
the Alaska Panhandle and will stretch as far west as the eastern
portions of Prince William Sound. Previous model guidance had the
majority of the heavy precipitation primarily along the Alaska
Panhandle, but there are some trends that are starting to suggest
more precipitation closer to Southcentral. Increased model
agreement closer to the event will help with the confidence of
this forecast in the coming days. Additionally, regardless of the
exact location of the trough and shortwaves, gap winds are likely
with this system. The main region of increased gap winds will
extend from the eastern Bering to the western portions of Cook
Inlet and the Alaska Range. Overall, the positioning of the trough
over Alaska in the coming days will play a significant role in
the placement of strong winds and heavy precipitation throughout
the weekend and early next week.

BS

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Light winds will persist through the TAF period. Fog and
low stratus will likely continue to erode through the early evening
hours. Fog and low stratus are then likely to return to the
terminal after sunset, at a similar time to yesterday (by 11 pm
AKST). Any fog and low stratus that does develop is expected to
remain through late Thursday morning.

-TM

&&