Severe Thunderstorm Warning 77, NWS Tucson, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
313 PM MST Mon Aug 7 2023

.SYNOPSIS...Somewhat more typical monsoon weather is expected
this week with temperatures running closer to normal with
scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms across much of
southeast Arizona. Drying out over the weekend and heating back up
again Sunday into early next week.

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.DISCUSSION...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms developed
rather quickly after 1230 pm mainly across Cochise county with
lots of nickel to quarter size hail reports. These storms
possibly being aided by a very weak upper level disturbance that
was near Nogales this afternoon.days for scattered
showers and thunderstorms each day through at least Thursday. Not
every will see rain but those that do, could be locally heavy. Outside of Cochise county its
pretty quiet even with the significant increase in moisture over
the past 24 hours. Most recent CAMS showing different solutions
on what might occur over the next 6-10 hours. Some runs have
strong outflow moving out of Sonora MX and developing elevated
storms as far north as Phoenix. Others do not. Thus went with a
blend of models, leaning toward the NBM, with scattered storms
this evening into early Tuesday morning.

Moisture hanging around for most the week with Tuesday and
Wednesday likely being the more active days. Interesting to note
that the mid-level remnants of TS Eugene will move into southern
California Thursday. Low-grade monsoon forecast Friday into the
weekend.

Temperatures this week will remain several degrees above normal
before starting to warm up a bit over the weekend. Models
suggesting a return to excessive heat levels with record or near
record highs early next week under another strong high over the
state.

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.AVIATION...Valid through 09/00Z.
SCT -SHRA/-TSRA for much of the valid period with storms
developing either along outflow boundaries thru 08/10z and then
again after 08/19z due to daytime heating. Erratic wind gusts to
45 kts with any -TSRA. Otherwise SFC winds NW-WLY 10-15 kts
gusting up to 25 kts thru 08/03Z and once again after 09/18z.
At other times winds will follow diurnal trends and generally
remain under 10 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms each
afternoon through the weekend. Any storms that do form are capable
of producing erratic and gusty outflows. Daytime temperatures remain
a few degrees above normal before increasing this upcoming weekend
into early next week. Minimum RH in the lower elevations range
from 20-35% and 40-50% in the higher elevations today and
decreasing to 10-20% and 20-30% by the weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...The consecutive day streak of highs 100 degrees or
hotter in Tucson now stands at 53 days. The probabilities thru
Friday of NOT hitting 100 degrees is less than 10% each day.
Looking ahead to early next week, the most recent probabilities
for hitting 110 degrees in Tucson is between 10% and 20%.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
108 PM MST Mon Aug 7 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0105 PM     Hail             6 ESE Sierra Vista      31.54N 110.23W
08/07/2023  E1.00 inch       Cochise            AZ   Public

            Quarter sized hail.

&&

GRG

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
109 PM MST Mon Aug 7 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0109 PM     Hail             6 SE Sierra Vista       31.50N 110.26W
08/07/2023  E1.00 inch       Cochise            AZ   Trained Spotter

            Quarter sized hail and 1in of rain in 45
            minutes.

&&

GRG

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
136 PM MST Mon Aug 7 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 PM     Hail             Sierra Vista            31.57N 110.32W
08/07/2023  E1.75 inch       Cochise            AZ   Public

            Photo of hail sent via social media.

&&

DVS