Severe Thunderstorm Warning 66, NWS Tucson, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
245 PM MST Sun Aug 6 2023

.SYNOPSIS...Not as hot this upcoming week with a daily chance of
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The moisture push we had overnight has been nice but
still dealing with warm mid-level temperatures around -2 to -3 per
last POES satellite derived data. Latest HRRR and UofA WRF runs
still highlighting Santa Cruz and SW Cochise counties, mainly the
Santa Rita and Huachuca mountains this evening. Any outflows
pushing from these storms will struggle to develop additional
storms with most of the isolated activity that does develop this
evening staying south of a Kitt Peak to Benson line.

With the upper high sliding a little further east, it will not be
as hot this upcoming week with highs running a few degrees above
normal. Relatively active convective week ahead with daily 10% to
40% chances then drying out next weekend and unfortunately
heating back up.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 08/00Z.
Chance of -SHRA/-TSRA with clouds bases 8k-10k ft AGL until
07/04z across Santa Cruz and SW Cochise county impacting KOLS and
KALK. Otherwise SKC conds. Chance of afternoon -SHRA/-TSRA across
most of the area Monday. SFC winds NWLY at 10-15 kts with gusts
up to 25 kts possible until 07/03Z. Otherwise SFC winds will be
variable and remain under 10 kts. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...There was a moisture increase this morning which
will remain across the area much of the upcoming week. This will
lead to daily chances of showers and thunderstorms, although not
everybody will be getting wetting rains. Temperatures will not be
as hot this week, generally a few degrees above normal. Drying
out once again next weekend with temperatures heating back up
again.

&&

.CLIMATE...The low temperature at the Tucson airport this morning
was a very warm 85 degrees. This ties for the warmest August low
on record, which first occurred on August 1, 1902 and was later
tied on August 1, 1914.

The consecutive day streak of highs 100 degrees or hotter in
Tucson stands at 52 days. The probabilities each day this
upcoming week of NOT hitting 100 degrees is less than 10%.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ501>509.

&&

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
431 PM MST Sun Aug 6 2023

AZZ503-504-513-070015-
Dragoon/Mule/Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains including
Bisbee/Canelo Hills/Madera Canyon-Upper Santa Cruz River and Altar
Valleys including Nogales-Tucson Metro Area including Tucson/Green
Valley/Marana/Vail-
431 PM MST Sun Aug 6 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central Pima
and north central Santa Cruz Counties through 515 PM MST...

At 430 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Green Valley, moving north at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Green Valley, Amado, Madera Canyon and Arivaca Junction.

This includes Interstate 19 between mile markers 26 and 44.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3167 11089 3166 11113 3194 11109 3189 11078
TIME...MOT...LOC 2330Z 192DEG 4KT 3177 11098

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

WJM