High Wind Watch 1, NWS Tucson, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
319 AM MST Mon Feb 13 2023

.SYNOPSIS...Three winter storms will be impacting the area this
week. The first storm will be affecting the area today with showers,
breezy winds, a slight chance of thunderstorms and cooler
temperatures. The second storm will generate strong winds Tuesday and
Tuesday night and bring even colder temperatures and a chance of
more precipitation Tuesday night and Wednesday. Very cold morning
lows likely Thursday morning. The third winter storm moves in late
next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Unusually complex weather pattern (for here) for the
next few days with a variety of headlines going up with more to
follow. For today, an upper low nearly over Yuma this hour will move
to near Tucson this evening and off to the east overnight. This
storm will generate gusty (typical) southwest winds across the area,
spread showers west to east across southern AZ with snow above 5,000
ft give or take a little along with dramatically cooler afternoon
temperatures compared to yesterday. May see some light snow late in
the day places like Oracle, however accumulating snows will generally
be confined above 5,500 feet. We have a winter weather advisory in
effect for the mountains to account for that with snow amounts about
the same as we have been going with, 6-12 inches above 7,000 ft and
2-5 inches in the 5-7,000 ft band. For the valleys, still looking at
1-2 tenths of an inch of rain on average.

Then storm number two will impact the area later Tuesday into
Wednesday with three impactful aspects to it. The first impact, the
storm will drop south into the area and looks to produce strong
winds, stronger for a large area than we have seen in quite awhile.
It has a wind field look of a storm that occurred on April 8th, 2013
which had widespread high end advisory winds (30-39 mph sustained
low elevations) with some areas meeting high wind criteria (40 mph
or higher with gusts 58 mph or higher low elevations). 700 mb winds
with this system reach 60 kts and we will be mixed to or nearly to
that level.

At this point, it is looking like advisory level winds developing
central western Pima county late Tuesday morning and spreading
northeastward across the remainder of the area through the afternoon
with the peak winds occurring Tuesday night in advance of the
southward moving trough and associated front. Given the strong winds
aloft and time of day (overnight) of the peak winds the mountains
stand a good chance of reaching warning criteria (45 mph or greater
sustained and greater than 65 mph gusts for the mountains). Two lower
elevation locations also stand a good chance of reaching high wind
and that is the Sierra Vista area downwind of the Huachuca Mountains
and models are highlighting the area around Oracle as well. So at
this time I have issued a high wind watch for the mountains and the
Sierra Vista and Oracle areas. Unfortunately it will highlight large
zones when the concern is for those two locations. As far as Wind
Advisory, it is a bit beyond the timeframe for issuing one but that
will likely happen later today. Plus there is some concern we may
need to add to the high wind area rather than advisory. Another
model run should help with that. Of note, the given blend appears to
be very high with wind speeds, higher than other guidance and seems
overdone with speeds and spreading the wind over too long of a time
period (ie, behind the front/trof). Have adjusted it using MOS and
some deterministic guidance.

Impact two, precipitation. This system will drive colder air
southward with precipitation. However, as is typical the coldest air
is arriving after the bulk of the precip has occurred. Snow levels
start around 6,000 feet Tuesday evening when the precip starts then
crashes to around 2,500 ft as the precip is ending. At any rate, I
issued a snow advisory for the mountains for snowfall amounts similar
to todays storm. For the low elevations still have the potential for
a light coating (around the Tucson area) to near an inch points
further east. This will need to be watched carefully over the next 48
hours due to the fact if the precip lingers just an extra hour or
two longer, we could easily exceed the 1 inch threshold for a
lowland snow advisory in places.

Precip ends Wednesday morning as the storm exits the region. However
the cold air following the storm will be the third impact of very
cold low temperatures Thursday morning. The cold and very dry air
mass combined with light winds and clear skies will bring sub-
freezing temps area wide with hard freeze conditions likely from the
Tucson area south and east. Some locations will get close to record
lows.

Beyond that, dry with a gradual warmup into the first half of the
weekend although it will remain cooler than normal. Then a third
storm system is expected to affect the area late next weekend into
the following week.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 14/12Z.
SCT-BKN clouds 4k-6k ft AGL with ISOLD to SCT -SHRA west of Tucson.
This area of lower clouds and showers will gradually move east
impacting KTUS and KOLS by around 13/15z with contd movement east
thru the end of valid pd. Mtns will be obscd at times during 2nd half
of valid pd. There is up to a 25% chance of thunder aft 13/18z but
will not put into the TAFs at this time.

SLY winds 5-12 kts thru 13/15z then SLY/SWLY winds incrg 15-25 kts
with gusts up to 35 kts during thru end of valid pd. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A couple of weather systems are expected to
impact the area through midweek. The first will move across the
region today with another system late Tuesday into Wednesday. Along
with the cooler temperatures, expect gusty winds today and very
strong winds late Tuesday into Tuesday night. There is a threat of
wetting precipitation with the passage of these systems along with a
few thunderstorms today. The second system will likely have low snow
levels although precipitation is expected to be fairly light in the
valleys. Accumulating snows are expected across elevations above
about 5,500 ft with todays system while the second system may have
some accumulations as low as 2,800 ft. A third storm system is
expected to affect the area late next weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...Active week ahead with a couple winter storms moving
across the area. A rather cold air mass will accompany the 2nd
system midweek with near record low temperatures Thursday morning
February 16th.

Location         Forecast Low    Record low   Chance of record
Tucson Intl           26         21 in 1910          3%
Willcox               13          9 in 1964         54%
Tombstone             19         18 in 1928         64%
Douglas               15         12 in 1990         44%
Ajo                   31         30 in 1921         28%

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening
for AZZ506.

Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for
AZZ510>514.

Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM Tuesday to 6 AM MST Wednesday
for AZZ510-511-514.

High Wind Watch from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday
night for AZZ507-510>514.

Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM Tuesday to 11 AM MST
Wednesday for AZZ512.

&&

Public...Cerniglia
Aviation...Cerniglia
Fire Weather....Cerniglia

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