Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
344 AM CDT Mon Aug 7 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Mon Aug 7 2023

Scattered convection has been developing over the last hour
or so in the vicinity of an elevated frontal boundary. While the
better elevated instability axis remains across SE Ok
and WC AR, ample shear across the area is supportive of strong
to severe storms capable of producing large hail. Axis of
convection will shift E-SE through mid to late morning before
dissipating.  Will leave low PoPs going across the south as isolated
development near a diffuse surface boundary will be possible.

Lower dewpoints working south into the area will help reinforce cooler
temperatures today, making for a nice break from the recent heat.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Mon Aug 7 2023

The W-NW flow pattern will continue over the next several
days with additional chances for storms tonight through Wednesday.
Storms developing to the west and northwest later today and evening
will move east into the forecast area late tonight, with most activity
decreasing/dissipating by mid morning Tuesday.

A stronger upper wave moving from the Rockies into the central plains
Tuesday night along with a strengthening low level jet will allow
convection to initiate across KS and develop into an MCS as it
moves southeast through KS and into NE OK and NW AR late Tuesday
night and Wednesday morning. A surface boundary will move through
later in the day Wednesday with additional storms possible
Wednesday afternoon and evening. However, coverage and intensity
will be dependent on the evolution of the late Tuesday
night/Wednesday morning convection. Settled conditions are
expected behind the front for Thursday. Without strong upper
ridging in place towards the weekend, there will at least chances
for diurnal convection with a hot humid airmass in place. Stayed
close to NBM temps throughout the forecast cycle.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1157 PM CDT Sun Aug 6 2023

Thunderstorms are expected to form within the first few hours of
the valid TAF period in a warm advection zone in the vicinity of
Highway 412 and I-40. Mid cloud development has been noted in this
region in satellite trends. Confidence remains highest in on
station impacts, including periods of IFR conditions, at RVS and
FSM, followed by TUL and FYV on the northern edge with slightly
better conditions. Expect a decrease in cloud cover through the
morning and into the afternoon, with VFR conditions areawide
thereafter.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   87  69  89  75 /  30  40  40  40
FSM   89  71  89  76 /  80  50  60  20
MLC   88  71  91  78 /  40  50  40  20
BVO   86  66  89  71 /  10  30  40  50
FYV   86  66  87  71 /  30  40  50  40
BYV   86  66  87  69 /  10  20  40  40
MKO   86  68  88  73 /  70  50  50  30
MIO   86  67  88  71 /   0  20  30  50
F10   86  68  89  74 /  60  50  50  20
HHW   93  74  92  77 /  20  30  30  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...22

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
415 AM CDT Mon Aug 7 2023

ARZ019-020-071000-
Franklin AR-Crawford AR-
415 AM CDT Mon Aug 7 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Franklin
and northeastern Crawford Counties through 500 AM CDT...

At 415 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 5 miles
west of Cass, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Ozark...                          Wiederkehr Village...
Cass...                           Fern...
Jethro...                         Bidville...
Barnes...                         Redding...
Watalula...                       Piney...
Turners Bend...                   Taft...
Cravens...                        Paradise...

This includes Interstate 40 in Arkansas between mile markers 36 and
42.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3548 9371 3559 9408 3576 9399 3576 9391
      3577 9391 3577 9380 3576 9370
TIME...MOT...LOC 0915Z 282DEG 39KT 3569 9391

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
443 AM CDT Mon Aug 7 2023

OKZ061-062-067-068-071030-
Cherokee OK-Rogers OK-Mayes OK-Wagoner OK-
443 AM CDT Mon Aug 7 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of south central
Rogers, southwestern Mayes, northeastern Wagoner and northwestern
Cherokee Counties through 530 AM CDT...

At 443 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 5 miles
northwest of Wagoner, moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Wagoner...                        Inola...
Hulbert...                        Peggs...
Mazie...                          Lost City...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3599 9563 3613 9559 3611 9495 3584 9504
TIME...MOT...LOC 0943Z 276DEG 43KT 3603 9543

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

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