Severe Thunderstorm Warning 43, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1113 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 608 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2023

Made a quick update to add a Dense Fog Advisory for far SE OK over
the next several hours. Fog has become more widespread across
eastern OK this evening in the saturated cool air on the north
side of a sharp warm front down near the Red River. Guidance
indicates that far SE OK will see more widespread dense fog for
several more hours and thus an advisory was issued. The fog
elsewhere should be more transient. The forecast for later tonight
was left unchanged. A line of severe storms is expected to sweep
across the region after 9 PM (trended a tad later than earlier
progs). Some significant severe weather is possible, especially
across northeast Oklahoma, with the latest runs of the HRRR
simulating pockets of near 80 mph wind gusts punching into NE OK.
At least marginally severe winds are possible with the squall
line over into northwest Arkansas as well shortly after midnight.
There's also some indication that gradient winds from the west
will pick up within an hour or two after the squall line and could
reach advisory intensity. Going wind advisory for the region
overnight should cover.

Lacy

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Sunday)
Issued at 223 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2023

Gusty winds continue Monday with clearing skies and downslope wind
component pushing high temps above the bias correct blended
guidance. A similar warm pattern is in place Tuesday ahead of the
next cold front passing Tuesday night. A chance of rain will
spread across far southern locations Wednesday into Wednesday
night with this frontal boundary.

The next storm system has trended stronger in the latest
deterministic guidance and there is now stronger agreement in the
pattern. If this continues the precip chances for Thursday into
Friday will trend upward area wide. Cold air will be lacking with
this system however some snow potential may develop on the
backside of this system and beneath the cold mid level temps.
These details have time to be determined but the forecast will
trend in this direction.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1110 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2023

Severe thunderstorms impacting the eastern Oklahoma sites
late this evening. This activity will exit these sites over
the next couple of hours. The western Arkansas sites are
still expected to see some thunderstorm activity through the
early morning hours before the system departs. While not
included in this set of TAFs, there is the potential for
reduced visibility behind the thunderstorm activity
due to dust moving into the region from the west.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   48  75  41  75 / 100   0   0   0
FSM   47  73  44  77 /  90   0   0   0
MLC   46  74  42  76 /  80   0   0   0
BVO   46  74  35  72 / 100   0   0   0
FYV   49  71  42  74 /  90   0   0   0
BYV   49  71  42  72 /  90   0   0   0
MKO   47  72  42  73 /  80   0   0   0
MIO   49  72  40  70 /  90   0   0   0
F10   48  73  42  75 /  90   0   0   0
HHW   49  73  42  76 /  80   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-
     020-029.

&&

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...10

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
501 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2023

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-271200-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
501 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2023

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and Far Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 9 PM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Critical.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 9 PM.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Along and north of I-44 in NE OK.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...After 9 PM.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...After 9 PM.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 6 PM.

DISCUSSION...

A line of severe thunderstorms is expected to move into
eastern Oklahoma this evening, and into northwest Arkansas
just after midnight. Wide swaths of damaging winds
are expected with some gusts in excess of 70 mph likely,
especially across parts of northeast Oklahoma along and north of
Interstate 44. Due to the very strong low level shear, there is
potential for tornadoes to develop on the leading edge of the
squall line, especially near sections of the line that bow or
surge to the northeast. A strong tornado is possible. This is
most likely to occur across northeast Oklahoma. Storms should
begin to weaken as they move into far eastern Oklahoma and western
Arkansas, though a severe wind risk will still persist after
midnight in these locations. Storm motions will be very fast
(around 60 mph), so flash flooding is not expected, but very
heavy rainfall could still produce some brief, minor flooding,
especially in urban and low lying areas.

Outside of the storms, a strong gradient wind is forecast as low
pressure strengthens over the Plains. Wind gusts between 40 and
50 mph will be possible at times this evening into the overnight
hours.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.
MONDAY...High Wind Potential.
TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY...No Hazards.
THURSDAY...Winter Weather Potential...High Wind Potential.
FRIDAY...High Wind Potential.
SATURDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

Gusty winds will develop in the wake of the storm system Monday
morning, before subsiding during the afternoon. The gusty west
winds and drier air in place will raise fire weather concerns.

A strong upper level storm system will swing thru the southern
Plains Thursday into Friday. It may get cold enough Thursday night
in the wrap-around band of precipitation for a rain/snow mix or
change over to snow across northeast Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas. Some accumulation is possible, depending on how close to
freezing the temperatures at the surface get.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
Wide swaths of wind damage are possible from the line of severe
storms tonight, which would require response from emergency
managers and first responders. Power outages are possible as well.
Expect severe weather watches and warnings this evening into the
overnight hours.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1224 AM CST MON FEB 27 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1220 AM     TSTM WND GST     1 N AFTON               36.71N 94.96W
02/27/2023  M55 MPH          OTTAWA             OK   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1226 AM CST MON FEB 27 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1220 AM     TSTM WND GST     1 N AFTON               36.71N 94.96W
02/27/2023  M65 MPH          OTTAWA             OK   PUBLIC

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS TSTM WND GST REPORT FROM 1
            N AFTON.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1241 AM CST MON FEB 27 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1125 PM     TSTM WND GST     SALLISAW                35.46N 94.79W
02/26/2023  M60 MPH          SEQUOYAH           OK   MESONET

&&

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