Severe Thunderstorm Warning 34, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
609 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2023

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 608 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2023

Made a quick update to add a Dense Fog Advisory for far SE OK over
the next several hours. Fog has become more widespread across
eastern OK this evening in the saturated cool air on the north
side of a sharp warm front down near the Red River. Guidance
indicates that far SE OK will see more widespread dense fog for
several more hours and thus an advisory was issued. The fog
elsewhere should be more transient. The forecast for later tonight
was left unchanged. A line of severe storms is expected to sweep
across the region after 9 PM (trended a tad later than earlier
progs). Some significant severe weather is possible, especially
across northeast Oklahoma, with the latest runs of the HRRR
simulating pockets of near 80 mph wind gusts punching into NE OK.
At least marginally severe winds are possible with the squall
line over into northwest Arkansas as well shortly after midnight.
There's also some indication that gradient winds from the west
will pick up within an hour or two after the squall line and could
reach advisory intensity. Going wind advisory for the region
overnight should cover.

Lacy

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Sunday)
Issued at 223 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2023

Gusty winds continue Monday with clearing skies and downslope wind
component pushing high temps above the bias correct blended
guidance. A similar warm pattern is in place Tuesday ahead of the
next cold front passing Tuesday night. A chance of rain will
spread across far southern locations Wednesday into Wednesday
night with this frontal boundary.

The next storm system has trended stronger in the latest
deterministic guidance and there is now stronger agreement in the
pattern. If this continues the precip chances for Thursday into
Friday will trend upward area wide. Cold air will be lacking with
this system however some snow potential may develop on the
backside of this system and beneath the cold mid level temps.
These details have time to be determined but the forecast will
trend in this direction.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 515 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2023

IFR to MVFR conditions prevail this evening in advance of the severe line of
storms expected to impact the areas sites later this evening and overnight.
VFR conditions return late tonight into Monday. However, gusty west winds will
winds will continue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   62  48  75  41 /  30 100   0   0
FSM   62  47  73  44 /  30  90   0   0
MLC   66  46  74  42 /  30  80   0   0
BVO   61  46  74  35 /  30 100   0   0
FYV   61  49  71  42 /  30 100   0   0
BYV   61  49  71  42 /  40  90   0   0
MKO   62  47  72  42 /  30  80   0   0
MIO   59  49  72  40 /  40  90   0   0
F10   63  48  73  42 /  30  90   0   0
HHW   68  49  73  42 /  20  80   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for OKZ049-053>076.

     Dense Fog Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for OKZ049-053.

AR...Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-
     020-029.

&&

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...10

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
501 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2023

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-271200-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
501 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2023

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and Far Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 9 PM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Critical.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 9 PM.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Along and north of I-44 in NE OK.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...After 9 PM.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...After 9 PM.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 6 PM.

DISCUSSION...

A line of severe thunderstorms is expected to move into
eastern Oklahoma this evening, and into northwest Arkansas
just after midnight. Wide swaths of damaging winds
are expected with some gusts in excess of 70 mph likely,
especially across parts of northeast Oklahoma along and north of
Interstate 44. Due to the very strong low level shear, there is
potential for tornadoes to develop on the leading edge of the
squall line, especially near sections of the line that bow or
surge to the northeast. A strong tornado is possible. This is
most likely to occur across northeast Oklahoma. Storms should
begin to weaken as they move into far eastern Oklahoma and western
Arkansas, though a severe wind risk will still persist after
midnight in these locations. Storm motions will be very fast
(around 60 mph), so flash flooding is not expected, but very
heavy rainfall could still produce some brief, minor flooding,
especially in urban and low lying areas.

Outside of the storms, a strong gradient wind is forecast as low
pressure strengthens over the Plains. Wind gusts between 40 and
50 mph will be possible at times this evening into the overnight
hours.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.
MONDAY...High Wind Potential.
TUESDAY and WEDNESDAY...No Hazards.
THURSDAY...Winter Weather Potential...High Wind Potential.
FRIDAY...High Wind Potential.
SATURDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

Gusty winds will develop in the wake of the storm system Monday
morning, before subsiding during the afternoon. The gusty west
winds and drier air in place will raise fire weather concerns.

A strong upper level storm system will swing thru the southern
Plains Thursday into Friday. It may get cold enough Thursday night
in the wrap-around band of precipitation for a rain/snow mix or
change over to snow across northeast Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas. Some accumulation is possible, depending on how close to
freezing the temperatures at the surface get.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
Wide swaths of wind damage are possible from the line of severe
storms tonight, which would require response from emergency
managers and first responders. Power outages are possible as well.
Expect severe weather watches and warnings this evening into the
overnight hours.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.