Severe Thunderstorm Warning 422, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
629 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023

Multiple areas are favored for thunderstorm development in the
near term. The most robust development at the moment is along the
outflow boundary from the morning storms, extending along a
corridor just south of I-44. Coverage is also expanding across
south central and southeast Oklahoma within a region of low to mid
level warm advection. Finally, a few storms are trying to develop
ahead of the main cold front in north central Oklahoma just
northwest of the forecast area. Coverage is likely to continue to
expand along the outflow boundary and also the warm advection
region through the afternoon as faster upper level flow approaches
from the west. Instability and shear will support an isolated
strong to severe threat this afternoon for storms in eastern
Oklahoma. Of more importance, however, is that any afternoon
storms that move across southeast Oklahoma could set the stage for
localized flooding overnight.

The primary severe weather risk for southeast Oklahoma will
accompany a thunderstorm complex expected to organize from storms
developing to the west this afternoon ahead of the main upper
level trough. Waning instability should limit the hail potential,
with damaging winds being the main concern. Additional heavy rain,
given precipitable water values around 3 standard deviations above
normal, will increase the threat for flooding in far southeast
Oklahoma. A Flood Watch has been issued for Pushmataha and
Choctaw counties this evening and into pre-dawn Thursday. The
approach of the upper level trough should also lead to expanded
thunderstorm coverage farther north along the cold front itself
as it begins to move southward across the region, although the
evolution of the storms to the south could impact how much
expansion actually occurs.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Wednesday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023

Showers and thunderstorms should continue into tomorrow morning in
southeast Oklahoma and into western Arkansas before moving out mid
to late afternoon. The heavy rain and severe weather threats
should be gone by then, however. With upper level troughing
continuing over the Northern Plains, a secondary, stronger cold
front will push through the area during the day Friday and into
Friday night, bringing much cooler conditions to the region for
the weekend. Northerly winds should be breezy immediately
following the front also. While an increase in cloudiness should
accompany the front, the low to mid levels are expected to be dry
enough to preclude any shower or thunderstorm threat. Lows
Saturday morning should dip into the 30s for parts of northeast
Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas, with an outside chance of
some frost.

Northwest flow aloft will persist into early next week, keeping
seasonable temperatures and dry conditions in the area. An upper
level trough is expected to organize in the Rockies mid to late
week, leading to a return to southerly winds, increasing moisture,
near to above normal temperatures and shower and thunderstorm
chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023

Several clusters of strong thunderstorms are moving across eastern
OK at this time, and will be accompanied by MVFR to occasionally
IFR conditions at E OK TAF sites through around 03z. Some
potential for sfc wind gusts of 30-40 knots with a more immediate
threat of this at KTUL/KRVS. Storms will eventuality spread into
western AR in a weakened state this evening, in the 02-05z time
frame, also with MVFR to occasional IFR conditions. A period of
widespread IFR conditions is possible later tonight into early
Thursday morning in much of the area, with improving conditions
from the northwest from late morning into the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   64  80  52  72 /  90  20   0   0
FSM   67  78  57  77 /  90  60   0   0
MLC   64  77  54  75 /  90  30   0   0
BVO   59  81  47  71 /  80  10   0   0
FYV   61  76  48  72 /  90  60   0   0
BYV   62  75  50  69 /  80  70   0   0
MKO   64  78  53  73 /  80  40   0   0
MIO   63  78  49  68 /  80  30   0   0
F10   63  78  53  73 /  90  30   0   0
HHW   65  78  57  78 / 100  40   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for OKZ049-053-073-075.

AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...14

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
445 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-051030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
445 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT TONIGHT IN
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Southeast and East Central Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

 	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Southeast Oklahoma.

DISCUSSION...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are ongoing across parts of
eastern Oklahoma to the south of Interstate 40 late this
afternoon. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms across
western and central Oklahoma are expected to continue to push
eastward, organizing into a complex, posing a continued threat of
severe weather to parts of southeast and east central Oklahoma
through the evening. Large hail up to the size of golf balls and
damaging winds in the 60 to 70 mph range could occur with the
strongest storms. The severe weather threat should diminish late
evening into early Thursday morning.

In addition to the severe weather threats, heavy rainfall will
remain a concern for much of eastern Oklahoma through the evening.
Repeated rounds of heavy rain are expected in southeast Oklahoma
tonight, leading to an increasing threat for flash flooding that
should continue into early Thursday morning.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
FRIDAY...High Wind Potential.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Thursday morning
across parts of the area southeast of Interstate 44. Cooler and
drier air will move in from the northwest during the day behind a
cold front, bringing a prolonged period of dry weather to the
region.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
558 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023

OKZ054-059-064-042330-
Osage OK-Pawnee OK-Creek OK-
558 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE...NORTHWESTERN
CREEK AND SOUTHEASTERN PAWNEE COUNTIES THROUGH 630 PM CDT...

At 558 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 3 miles west of Hominy to 4 miles west of
Drumright. Movement was east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Hominy...                         Cleveland...
Drumright...                      Oilton...
Jennings...                       Osage...
Hallett...                        Terlton...
Shamrock...                       Silver City...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3647 9649 3651 9622 3588 9652 3588 9662
      3616 9662 3616 9664
TIME...MOT...LOC 2258Z 251DEG 22KT 3643 9646 3597 9667

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
610 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0604 PM     Hail             3 SSE Catoosa           36.12N 95.73W
10/04/2023  E1.50 inch       Wagoner            OK   Public

&&

JDS

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