Severe Thunderstorm Warning 418, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
217 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023

Multiple areas are favored for thunderstorm development in the
near term. The most robust development at the moment is along the
outflow boundary from the morning storms, extending along a
corridor just south of I-44. Coverage is also expanding across
south central and southeast Oklahoma within a region of low to mid
level warm advection. Finally, a few storms are trying to develop
ahead of the main cold front in north central Oklahoma just
northwest of the forecast area. Coverage is likely to continue to
expand along the outflow boundary and also the warm advection
region through the afternoon as faster upper level flow approaches
from the west. Instability and shear will support an isolated
strong to severe threat this afternoon for storms in eastern
Oklahoma. Of more importance, however, is that any afternoon
storms that move across southeast Oklahoma could set the stage for
localized flooding overnight.

The primary severe weather risk for southeast Oklahoma will
accompany a thunderstorm complex expected to organize from storms
developing to the west this afternoon ahead of the main upper
level trough. Waning instability should limit the hail potential,
with damaging winds being the main concern. Additional heavy rain,
given precipitable water values around 3 standard deviations above
normal, will increase the threat for flooding in far southeast
Oklahoma. A Flood Watch has been issued for Pushmataha and
Choctaw counties this evening and into pre-dawn Thursday. The
approach of the upper level trough should also lead to expanded
thunderstorm coverage farther north along the cold front itself
as it begins to move southward across the region, although the
evolution of the storms to the south could impact how much
expansion actually occurs.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Wednesday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023

Showers and thunderstorms should continue into tomorrow morning in
southeast Oklahoma and into western Arkansas before moving out mid
to late afternoon. The heavy rain and severe weather threats
should be gone by then, however. With upper level troughing
continuing over the Northern Plains, a secondary, stronger cold
front will push through the area during the day Friday and into
Friday night, bringing much cooler conditions to the region for
the weekend. Northerly winds should be breezy immediately
following the front also. While an increase in cloudiness should
accompany the front, the low to mid levels are expected to be dry
enough to preclude any shower or thunderstorm threat. Lows
Saturday morning should dip into the 30s for parts of northeast
Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas, with an outside chance of
some frost.

Northwest flow aloft will persist into early next week, keeping
seasonable temperatures and dry conditions in the area. An upper
level trough is expected to organize in the Rockies mid to late
week, leading to a return to southerly winds, increasing moisture,
near to above normal temperatures and shower and thunderstorm
chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023

RA/TSRA impacts at the TAF sites through much of the afternoon
will be brief, with MVFR cigs/vsbys as temporary restrictions.
Coverage of RA/TSRA will increase this evening as a cold front
moves through the area, with the window for convection between
00z-06z for the E OK sites and 02z-08z across the NW AR sites.
Cigs will lower to IFR categories along with MVFR/brief IFR vsbys
in TSRA. Once RA/TSRA moves east, MVFR vsbys in light fog and
IFR cigs (brief LIFR cigs possible across the NW AR sites
possible)will prevail through mid morning, though MVFR cigs will
prevail through the remainder of the period, with cigs improving
to VFR across the OK sites sites between 13z-15z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   64  80  52  72 /  90  20   0   0
FSM   67  78  57  77 /  90  60   0   0
MLC   64  77  54  75 /  90  30   0   0
BVO   59  81  47  71 /  80  10   0   0
FYV   61  76  48  72 /  90  60   0   0
BYV   62  75  50  69 /  80  70   0   0
MKO   64  78  53  73 /  80  40   0   0
MIO   63  78  49  68 /  80  30   0   0
F10   63  78  53  73 /  90  30   0   0
HHW   65  78  57  78 / 100  40   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Thursday morning
     for OKZ049-053.

AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...23

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
445 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-051030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
445 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT TONIGHT IN
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Southeast and East Central Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

 	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Southeast Oklahoma.

DISCUSSION...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are ongoing across parts of
eastern Oklahoma to the south of Interstate 40 late this
afternoon. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms across
western and central Oklahoma are expected to continue to push
eastward, organizing into a complex, posing a continued threat of
severe weather to parts of southeast and east central Oklahoma
through the evening. Large hail up to the size of golf balls and
damaging winds in the 60 to 70 mph range could occur with the
strongest storms. The severe weather threat should diminish late
evening into early Thursday morning.

In addition to the severe weather threats, heavy rainfall will
remain a concern for much of eastern Oklahoma through the evening.
Repeated rounds of heavy rain are expected in southeast Oklahoma
tonight, leading to an increasing threat for flash flooding that
should continue into early Thursday morning.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
FRIDAY...High Wind Potential.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Thursday morning
across parts of the area southeast of Interstate 44. Cooler and
drier air will move in from the northwest during the day behind a
cold front, bringing a prolonged period of dry weather to the
region.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

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