Severe Thunderstorm Warning 26, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1104 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 842 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2023

Storms from NE OK through south central OK have expanded in
coverage the last few hours with scattered svr storms ongoing
nearer the moisture defined warm front extending through SE OK.
This has verified well with the recent short term guidance and the
evening update will accept the near term solutions of expanding
storms eastward as the cold front begins to surge eastward.
Ongoing forecast has this well handled the update will largely be
to refine timing of the higher precip chances. The severe
potential also looks to be highest along and south of Interstate
40 where a window of more substantial moisture return remains
possible.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Wednesday)
Issued at 200 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2023

Cold and breezy conditions are expected behind departing system into
Thursday and continue through Thursday night.  Wind chill indices
are forecast to fall into the teens across much of the area by
Friday morning although winds will begin to decrease as surface high
pressure continues to build over the region.

Quiet weather anticipated with a warming trend over the weekend into
early part of next week. Still some significant timing differences
in the operational models with cold front mid week, but
precipitation chances will once again increase during the Tuesday,
Wednesday time frame as upper system approaches. Stayed close to
NBM guidance through the extended periods.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1104 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2023

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to spread eastward across
the CWA as a cold front pushes through the CWA and an upper level
low lifts through the region. Within the convection...MVFR
conditions and gusty winds will be possible. Behind the front and
precip...MVFR/IFR ceilings are forecast to become common over the
CWA overnight and continue into Thursday afternoon. During the
afternoon...parts of Eastern Oklahoma and West Central Arkansas
could lift back to low end VFR through the end of the TAF period.
MVFR ceilings look to remain for far Northwest Arkansas through
the end of the TAF period. Also behind the front...gusty west to
northwesterly winds are forecast through the majority of the TAF
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   29  39  23  48 /  40   0   0   0
FSM   39  48  27  49 /  80   0   0   0
MLC   32  42  24  48 /  80   0   0   0
BVO   24  37  19  48 /  20   0   0   0
FYV   33  44  22  46 /  80   0   0   0
BYV   35  47  23  44 /  60   0   0   0
MKO   32  40  24  46 /  80   0   0   0
MIO   29  36  21  45 /  20   0   0   0
F10   30  40  24  48 /  90   0   0   0
HHW   37  45  27  49 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...20

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
446 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2023

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-161130-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
446 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2023

...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THROUGH EVENING...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Along and south of a line from McAlester Oklahoma to
    Fort Smith Arkansas.
	ONSET...After 7 PM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...South of Interstate 44.
	ONSET...After 7 PM.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...Southeast Oklahoma.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...After midnight.

DISCUSSION...

Scattered storms have developed across north central Texas late this
afternoon and these storms will expand in coverage as they spread
eastward this evening. Severe weather potential will increase across
portions of eastern Oklahoma as these storms pass. Large hail and
locally damaging winds will be the primary hazards. The tornadic
potential may increase across southeast Oklahoma as low level
moisture increases and winds fields strengthen. Storms will spread
east of the region by the early morning hours on Thursday.

Gusty northwest winds will develop after midnight as the a
strong cold front passes. Winds gusts 30 to 40 mph will be possible
through the overnight hours.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
THURSDAY...High Wind Potential.
FRIDAY...No Hazards.
SATURDAY and SUNDAY...High Fire Weather and High Wind Potential.
MONDAY and TUESDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

Northwest winds will remain gusty behind the cold front on
Thursday. Winds return southerly over the weekend and
will become gusty. The warmer, drier and windier conditions will
raise fire weather concerns, especially by Sunday.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1131 PM CST WED FEB 15 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1127 PM     HAIL             SALLISAW                35.46N 94.79W
02/15/2023  E0.88 INCH       SEQUOYAH           OK   PUBLIC

1129 PM     HAIL             1 N SPRINGDALE          36.20N 94.13W
02/15/2023  E1.00 INCH       WASHINGTON         AR   BROADCAST MEDIA

1124 PM     HAIL             1 S BEAVER              36.46N 93.77W
02/15/2023  U1.00 INCH       CARROLL            AR   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: QUARTER (1.00 IN.).

&&