Severe Thunderstorm Warning 180, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
634 AM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

A few stronger thunderstorm clusters have developed early this
morning across northeast Oklahoma in association with elongated
mid level vorticity max across Kansas. A right moving elevated
supercell produced ping pong ball size hail in Tulsa earlier.
Elevated instability remains in the 1000-1500 J/kg, with deep
layer shear around 40 knots, which will continue to support at
least a marginal hail threat for the remainder of the overnight
hours as storms continue eastward.

Additional scattered thunderstorms may redevelop by late morning
and especially into the afternoon as stronger diurnal heating
develops. CAMs, including some of the global models suggest best
storm chances will be across northeast Oklahoma closer to mid
level vort max sagging southeast out of Kansas and in the deeper
moisture across far southeast Oklahoma, where a few storms could
be severe with 80 knot upper speed max. The greater threat for
severe weather however will more than likely develop just southeast
of the CWA this afternoon/evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

A few lingering storms will be possible tonight, however overall
coverage is expected to remain fairly limited. Another strong mid
level wave will move east out of the Four Corners region on Thursday
with an MCS liking moving into eastern Oklahoma Thursday night.
In additional to some severe threat, very heavy rainfall will be
likely in some locations.

Weak upper ridge builds into the southern Plains Friday into Saturday
with a slow warming trend. The active weather pattern continues
as another upper disturbance lifts northeast into Kansas with
another round of strong to severe thunderstorms Saturday night
including heavy rainfall.

Although weak upper ridge begins to build north into the early
part of the next week, zonal flow will persist, which should
allow for at least low thunderstorm chances and some passing
clouds. NBM still appears a little too warm during this time and
continued with slightly cooler MOS guidance. Heat indices however
may still start to become an issue, especially if the two rounds
of heaver precipitation materialize Thursday and Saturday nights.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 AM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

A few showers/isolated thunder remain across NW AR, but impacts at
TAF initiation across those sites appear minimal. Another area of
storms will impact KBVO in the the 12z-13z period with IFR/MVFR
vsbys and possibly MVFR cigs. Will include tempo groups at
KTUL/KRVS as this activity moves E-SE through mid morning. At
this time will only include VCTS across the AR sites given the
uncertainty of the track and whether convection remains intact
later this morning.

Additional storms will be possible again this afternoon and
evening, but coverage appears to low for any TAF mention.

VFR elements will prevail outside of TSRA at all sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   85  64  89  68 /  80  30  10  60
FSM   87  68  92  71 /  80  30  10  50
MLC   85  65  91  68 /  30  20  10  60
BVO   85  58  89  63 /  80  40  10  50
FYV   85  61  88  65 /  80  30  10  50
BYV   84  61  87  65 /  80  30  10  40
MKO   85  64  89  67 /  70  30  10  60
MIO   84  61  88  65 /  70  30  10  50
F10   84  63  89  67 /  60  20  10  60
HHW   83  67  90  69 /  40  30  10  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...23

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
633 AM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-151015-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
633 AM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
A cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms will likely sweep through
portions of northeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas this morning.
Large hail and damaging winds will be likely in the stronger bow
segments.

Storms may redevelop later this morning, and continue into the
afternoon across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, with
isolated to widely scattered activity across southeast Oklahoma.
Severe potential will continue with storms later this morning and
afternoon, with large hail and damaging straight line winds the
main threats. While there may be a few lingering storms this
evening, the focus for severe weather is expected to shift
southeast of the area.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
THURSDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
FRIDAY through MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Dangerous Heat Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A storm complex that develops to the northwest Thursday
will likely impact eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas
Thursday night and Friday morning. A severe wind threat may
accompany this complex, along with a heavy rainfall threat.

Another round of storms looks to impact eastern Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas Saturday night, with severe weather again
possible along with heavy rainfall.

Daily thunderstorm chances will continue into next week, however
coverage will likely be lower as upper ridging begins to build
north from Texas.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
519 AM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 AM     Hail             1 W West Fork           35.92N 94.20W
06/14/2023  E1.75 inch       Washington         AR   Public

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
525 AM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

OKZ054-141100-
Osage OK-
525 AM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northern Osage County
through 600 AM CDT...

At 525 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 4 miles southwest of Elgin to 3 miles northeast
of Burbank. Movement was east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Shidler...                        Burbank...
Elgin...                          Grainola...
Foraker...                        Bigheart...
Pearsonia...                      Sunset Lake...
Eastern Kaw Lake...               Webb City...
Wah Sha She State Park...         Apperson...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9600 3697 9600 3654 9653 3673 9691
      3675 9688 3674 9683 3677 9682 3678 9675
      3700 9675
TIME...MOT...LOC 1025Z 291DEG 25KT 3696 9635 3673 9669

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
536 AM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0408 AM     Hail             2 ENE Blackburn         35.83N 94.18W
06/14/2023  E1.75 inch       Washington         AR   Public

            Corrects previous hail report from 1 W West
            Fork.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
656 AM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0343 AM     Hail             Watts                   36.11N 94.57W
06/14/2023  E2.00 inch       Adair              OK   Public

            2 inch hail in Watts.

&&

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
720 AM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 AM     Hail             6 ESE Foyil             36.40N 95.42W
06/14/2023  M1.00 inch       Mayes              OK   Emergency Mngr

            measured 65 mph wind with quarter size hail.

&&