Severe Thunderstorm Warning 172, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
319 AM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

A few stronger thunderstorm clusters have developed early this
morning across northeast Oklahoma in association with elongated
mid level vorticity max across Kansas. A right moving elevated
supercell produced ping pong ball size hail in Tulsa earlier.
Elevated instability remains in the 1000-1500 J/kg, with deep
layer shear around 40 knots, which will continue to support at
least a marginal hail threat for the remainder of the overnight
hours as storms continue eastward.

Additional scattered thunderstorms may redevelop by late morning
and especially into the afternoon as stronger diurnal heating
develops. CAMs, including some of the global models suggest best
storm chances will be across northeast Oklahoma closer to mid
level vort max sagging southeast out of Kansas and in the deeper
moisture across far southeast Oklahoma, where a few storms could
be severe with 80 knot upper speed max. The greater threat for
severe weather however will more than likely develop just southeast
of the CWA this afternoon/evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

A few lingering storms will be possible tonight, however overall
coverage is expected to remain fairly limited. Another strong mid
level wave will move east out of the Four Corners region on Thursday
with an MCS liking moving into eastern Oklahoma Thursday night.
In additional to some severe threat, very heavy rainfall will be
likely in some locations.

Weak upper ridge builds into the southern Plains Friday into Saturday
with a slow warming trend. The active weather pattern continues
as another upper disturbance lifts northeast into Kansas with
another round of strong to severe thunderstorms Saturday night
including heavy rainfall.

Although weak upper ridge begins to build north into the early
part of the next week, zonal flow will persist, which should
allow for at least low thunderstorm chances and some passing
clouds. NBM still appears a little too warm during this time and
continued with slightly cooler MOS guidance. Heat indices however
may still start to become an issue, especially if the two rounds
of heaver precipitation materialize Thursday and Saturday nights.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023
Isolated/scattered TSRA will continue across the area
overnight, though potential impacts to any one TAF site will
remain low. At this time, will only include a VCTS at KBVO for a
brief period early in the period. Mostly VFR elements will
prevail, though MVFR cigs and vsbys can be expected at times at
KMLC over the first 6 hours of the period. The NW AR sites may
also experience a brief period of MVFR vsbys in fog between
08z-12z. Additional storms will be possible again tomorrow
afternoon and evening, but coverage appears to low for any TAF
mention.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   85  64  89  68 /  30  30  10  60
FSM   87  68  92  71 /  30  30  10  50
MLC   85  65  91  68 /  30  20  10  60
BVO   85  58  89  63 /  40  40  10  50
FYV   85  61  88  65 /  30  30  10  50
BYV   84  61  87  65 /  30  30  10  40
MKO   85  64  89  67 /  20  30  10  60
MIO   84  61  88  65 /  40  30  10  50
F10   84  63  89  67 /  20  20  10  60
HHW   83  67  90  69 /  40  30  10  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...23

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
442 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-141030-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
442 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Southeast Oklahoma; West-Central Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Far Southeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Tonight.

DISCUSSION...
There is some potential for severe storms near the Red River this
afternoon. If any storms develop and move into far southeast
Oklahoma, they would be capable of producing very large hail.
Guidance indicates that some isolated to widely scattered storm
activity could develop this evening across western into central
Oklahoma and then move into eastern Oklahoma later tonight. An
isolated severe storm is possible with this activity. Finally,
more storm development is expected over north Texas after midnight
and its possible that a few storms could move into far southeast
Oklahoma. These storms would be capable of producing large hail.
Locally heavy rainfall is possible near the Red River if multiple
rounds of storms track over this same general area.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
MONDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Daily thunderstorm chances will continue thru the weekend and
possibly into early next week. Better storm coverage is expected
Thursday night and Saturday night, with locally heavy rainfall and
a limited severe weather threat.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
248 AM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

OKZ055-056-061-140815-
Rogers OK-Nowata OK-Washington OK-
248 AM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Rogers,
southeastern Washington and southern Nowata Counties through 315 AM
CDT...

At 248 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 6 miles
west of Watova, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Nowata...                         New Alluwe...
Watova...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3653 9586 3674 9586 3671 9549 3655 9546
TIME...MOT...LOC 0748Z 268DEG 25KT 3661 9577

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
252 AM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0238 AM     Hail             3 NW Broken Arrow       36.09N 95.81W
06/14/2023  E1.75 inch       Tulsa              OK   Public

            Report from mPING: Golf Ball (1.75 in.).

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
254 AM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

OKZ068-069-140830-
Adair OK-Cherokee OK-
254 AM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Adair and
southeastern Cherokee Counties through 330 AM CDT...

At 254 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 6 miles
northeast of Cherokee Landing State Park, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Stilwell...                       Westville...
Adair State Park...               Eldon...
Christie...                       Cherokee Landing State Park...
Baron...                          Maryetta...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 600 AM CDT for
northeastern and east central Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3573 9490 3590 9495 3603 9454 3578 9450
TIME...MOT...LOC 0754Z 255DEG 26KT 3583 9484

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
255 AM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0244 AM     Hail             4 NW Broken Arrow       36.10N 95.81W
06/14/2023  E1.50 inch       Tulsa              OK   Public

            Report from mPING: Ping Pong Ball (1.50
            in.).

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
331 AM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

ARZ010-OKZ069-140900-
Washington AR-Adair OK-
331 AM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern
Washington and central Adair Counties through 400 AM CDT...

At 330 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 5 miles
southeast of Baron, and another near Proctor, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Stilwell...                       Farmington...
Prairie Grove...                  Lincoln...
Westville...                      Adair State Park...
Proctor...                        Christie...
Strickler...                      Cincinnati...
Blackburn...                      Baron...
Maryetta...                       Prairie Grove Battlefield State...
Walnut Grove...                   Clyde...
Rhea...                           Canehill...
Hogeye...                         Summers...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 600 AM CDT for
northwestern Arkansas...and northeastern and east central Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3577 9421 3578 9458 3596 9480 3603 9480
      3605 9425
TIME...MOT...LOC 0830Z 264DEG 21KT 3589 9453

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH