Severe Thunderstorm Warning 137, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
233 PM CDT Fri May 19 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Fri May 19 2023

The main forecast concern for this package is the near term severe
weather threat, largely focused across parts of far southeast
Oklahoma. Thunderstorm development is currently tied to an outflow
boundary from the morning thunderstorm complex stretched across
southeast Oklahoma. Local mesoanalysis indicates CAPE values in
excess of 2000 J/kg across much of southeast Oklahoma, with
instability continuing to climb through the afternoon. This
instability along with sufficient deep layer shear will continue
to support organized thunderstorms into the evening. Additional
development could also occur in advance of a strong cold front
currently entering areas north of I-44. This front will continue
to surge southward this afternoon and evening, with its passage
signaling the end of any severe threat. Showers may linger after
the frontal passage, however, even this should diminish from
northwest to southeast by daybreak.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Friday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Fri May 19 2023

Surface high pressure will push into the area for the weekend on
the heels of tonight's cold frontal passage, leading to a
seasonably cool and dry couple of days that may extend into Monday
as well. A more active pattern will develop for the middle to
latter part of next week, with daily shower and thunderstorm
chances but limited severe weather potential. An expanding ridge
across the Southern and Central Plains in the lee of the Rockies
will place northwest flow across much of eastern Oklahoma and
western Arkansas. Initially, the showers and thunderstorms will be
focused across western parts of the forecast area, with a shift
eastward along with the ridge expansion toward the middle of week.
Things will refocus back westward late in the week as an upper
level storm system approaches the Northern and Central Plains
toward the next weekend. Temperatures for the latter part of next
week should reach above normal levels areawide.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Fri May 19 2023

Mainly MVFR or IFR ceilings will prevail through this evening,
with winds shifting to the north as a cold front passes through
the area. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will remain
possible through early evening, with KMLC and KFSM seeing the
best chance of a thunderstorm. Ceilings will begin to improve to
VFR from north to south overnight, with all sites becoming VFR by
mid morning Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   52  73  50  77 /  30   0   0   0
FSM   61  77  57  80 /  80   0   0   0
MLC   56  74  52  77 /  80   0   0   0
BVO   46  72  43  78 /  30   0   0   0
FYV   53  73  48  78 /  80   0   0   0
BYV   53  71  49  76 /  90   0   0   0
MKO   54  72  51  76 /  60   0   0   0
MIO   50  71  48  76 /  60   0   0   0
F10   53  71  51  75 /  60   0   0   0
HHW   60  75  57  77 /  70   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...05

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
110 PM CDT Fri May 19 2023

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-201000-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
110 PM CDT Fri May 19 2023

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Far Southeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Mid Afternoon.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Mainly Along and South of Interstate 40.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...Late Afternoon.

DISCUSSION...
An outflow boundary across far southeast Oklahoma, left by
morning showers and thunderstorms, along with a cold front moving
into the area from the north, will become the focus areas for
thunderstorm development this afternoon. Instability and shear
will increase during the afternoon, mainly along and south of
Interstate 40, and will be supportive of a few severe storms.
Large hail and damaging straight line winds will be the main
threats, with a low tornado potential across far southeast
Oklahoma near the outflow boundary. Thunderstorm chances will end
by early evening with the passage of the cold front.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
SATURDAY and SUNDAY...No Hazards.
MONDAY through THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Quiet weather is expected across the entire area through the
weekend. Chances of thunderstorms will return next week,
especially toward the middle part of the week.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
449 PM CDT Fri May 19 2023

OKZ070-071-074-192215-
Haskell OK-Muskogee OK-McIntosh OK-
449 PM CDT Fri May 19 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central
Haskell, east central McIntosh and south central Muskogee Counties
through 515 PM CDT...

At 449 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 5 miles
south of Checotah, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Onapa...

This includes Interstate 40 in Oklahoma near mile marker 264.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for
southeastern Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3546 9554 3543 9525 3525 9532 3536 9560
TIME...MOT...LOC 2149Z 289DEG 21KT 3539 9551

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH