Severe Thunderstorm Warning 33, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
614 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2023

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2023

Forecast Highlights:

-Two rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms are likely to impact
portions of the area this evening and tonight.

-Elevated fire danger conditions will again be in place late this
week and this weekend.

-Freezing temperatures remain in the forecast this weekend. Record
lows are possible.

Forecast Discussion:

We are anticipating two rounds of impactful weather this evening and
tonight. At 19Z (2 PM CDT), a deep upper low was spinning over far
eastern Montana with a shortwave trough noted on its southern
periphery over the Colorado Rockies. Surface analysis shows low
pressure stretched across central Kansas with a dryline extending
southward into Oklahoma and Texas. Strong southerly flow has brought
dew points up to around 60 degrees across eastern Kansas.
Mesoanalysis shows between 1500 and 2500 J/kg of MLCAPE with a cap
still in place, confirmed by a special 20Z sounding launched from
Topeka.

The first round of storms is expected to impact portions of northern
Kansas this evening. Convective initiation could begin as early as
23Z north of I-70 with better forcing near the low. CAMs show a
few supercell storms developing within an environment consisting
of nearly 3000 J/kg of MLCAPE and about 30 kts of effective bulk
wind shear. Wind shear will increase as a strong LLJ develops into
tonight. Storms in this environment will be capable of very large
hail and damaging wind gusts. There appears to be a brief window
early on when a few tornadoes could occur as shear increases,
before SBCIN increases too rapidly. These storms will move
northeast into Nebraska late this evening.

The second round of storms is then expected to develop around
midnight in northern and north-central KS as the aforementioned
shortwave trough moves over central Nebraska. Convective mode could
be less organized and more linear, with CAMs showing more of a
widespread cluster of storms moving eastward through the CWA
overnight. A 65+ kt LLJ will keep low level shear parameters
sufficient for large hail and damaging wind gusts. Rainfall
amounts could exceed 1.0 inch in far northeast KS - the area most
likely to be affected by both rounds.

Strong winds ahead of and behind a cold front tonight have also
prompted the need for a Wind Advisory, which has been extended and
expanded. Strong winds outside of thunderstorms could gust to 50
mph, finally relaxing by tomorrow morning as winds shift to the
northwest behind the boundary.

Beyond today's system, elevated fire danger will return in central
KS tomorrow through Saturday. That area is less likely to see
significant rainfall tonight and will experience low afternoon
humidities and continued breezy winds through the start of the
weekend. Much cooler weather is then in store this weekend. Highs
on Saturday and Sunday will range from the 50s on Saturday to
around 60 degrees on Sunday. Record low temperatures are forecast
Sunday morning with lows in the upper 20s to near 30 degrees. A
freeze warning is looking likely at that time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 613 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2023

TS will impact all terminals this evening and through the early
morning hours of Thursday. Winds will also be the other factor to
consider as winds will remain out of the south/southwest gusting
to 40-45 mph through the evening. A cold front will shift winds
out of the west to northwest Thursday AM and will gradually
decrease through the remainder of the TAF period. As for
Thunderstorms, two waves of convection will be expected... The
first round that is ongoing will mainly impact KMHK and could clip
KTOP and KFOE if storms continue to develop south of I-70. There
will be a lull in storms between 5-9z before the next round of
rain and thunderstorms move in from the west. Expect very strong
winds, hail with all thunderstorms. Rain and storms move out after
sunrise Thursday with skies slowly clearing.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for KSZ026-035>040-054>056-
058-059.

&&

DISCUSSION...Teefey
AVIATION...Griesemer

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
310 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2023

KSZ026-035>040-054>056-058-059-202015-
Jefferson-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-
Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
310 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2023

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT
THURSDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Kansas, east central
Kansas and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A Wind Advisory is in effect from 7PM this evening until 7AM
Thursday morning. South winds are forecast to gust up to 50 MPH.

Severe thunderstorms are possible across the area into the overnight
hours. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main hazards.
Locally heavy rainfall could also occur with storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Temperatures near to just below freezing are forecast this weekend
which could damage sensitive vegetation.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

More detailed information can be found at:
www.weather.gov/media/top/DssPacket.pdf

KSZ008>012-020>024-034-202015-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Ottawa-
310 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Kansas and
northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Severe thunderstorms are possible across the area late this
afternoon and again tonight. Large hail and damaging winds will be
the main hazards with a few tornadoes also possible this evening.
Locally heavy rainfall could also occur with storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Temperatures near to just below freezing are forecast this weekend
which could damage sensitive vegetation.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

&&

More detailed information can be found at:
www.weather.gov/media/top/DssPacket.pdf

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