Flash Flood Warning 12, NWS Topeka, KS

172 
WGUS73 KTOP 142245
FFSTOP

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
545 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

KSC111-142255-
/O.CAN.KTOP.FF.W.0012.000000T0000Z-230714T2315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Lyon KS-
545 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR CENTRAL LYON COUNTY HAS BEEN REPLACED 
WITH A FLOOD ADVISORY...

LAT...LON 3844 9624 3844 9617 3844 9613 3838 9613
      3838 9624

$$

Jones

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
322 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

Key Points:

- Severe storms this afternoon moving out by early evening, with
damaging wind being the primary hazard, hail and heavy rain being
secondary hazards

- Quiet overnight into Saturday, then next chance of showers and
storms Sunday

- Heating up again early to middle of next week

Outflow boundary has been the focal point for thunderstorm
development late this morning into the early afternoon, which
allowed for storms to fill in along the I-70 corridor within the
last couple of hours. This MCS has a history of producing 60-80 mph
wind gusts on its leading edge as it moved from Wabaunsee County
through the Topeka vicinity and into Jefferson County. Very heavy
rain has also fallen with 1-3 inches of rain in some spots. The
environment in and ahead of this line of storms remains very
unstable with 2500-3500 J/kg of MLCAPE, up to 1300 J/kg of DCAPE,
and up to 40 kt of effective bulk shear. Additionally, Pwat has
risen to 1.7-1.9 inches across the area. This will continue to
support damaging winds being the main threat as the line moves east
to southeast with torrential rainfall. Flooding is also a potential
risk with any training storms, particularly from I-70 southward
where storms are still building back in from the west. While this
line has been ahead of CAM guidance to this point, models depict the
storm complex moving pretty quickly, likely exiting the area by
early this evening.

The rest of the night looks quiet as high pressure pushes in from
the northwest, leading to clearing skies. Can't rule out some
shallow fog forming in low-lying areas by sunrise, especially in
locations that receive(d) heavy rainfall today. As high pressure
slides east during the day, mainly sunny skies should allow
temperatures to reach around 90 degrees. As we head into Sunday, the
forecast area finds itself in northwest flow as a mid-level ridge
over the southwestern US expands east and a mid-level low moves
through southern Ontario. A subtle perturbation within the flow may
trigger another round of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon
and evening. Shear looks modest in the guidance at this time, but
can't rule out some marginally severe storms that develop with this
round.

A warming trend is then expected through the first half of next week
as a thermal axis moves overhead with the aforementioned mid-level
ridge. Heat indices look to return to the triple digits Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

Main concern in the period is convection this afternoon. A cluster
currently north of MHK should move southeast and impact TOP/FOE
within the next hour or two. Thunderstorms in central KS should
form a broken line and move across the area this afternoon and
move out of northeast KS by early evening. Strong winds will be
the main concern as these storms move through. Otherwise VFR
conditions prevail with winds from the northeast to northwest this
evening into tomorrow.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Picha
AVIATION...Picha

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
323 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-150830-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
323 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Kansas, east central
Kansas, north central Kansas and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A line of thunderstorms is expected to move into the area from the
northwest by this afternoon and early evening. Storms are expected to
be capable of producing winds of 70 mph or greater at times. A few
storms could also produce large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Potentially hazardous heat and humidity may return to the area by
Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters may be needed this afternoon and evening.

&&

More detailed information can be found at:
www.weather.gov/media/top/DssPacket.pdf

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
343 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0339 PM     Hail             1 SSE Wellsville        38.71N 95.07W
07/14/2023  M1.00 inch       Franklin           KS   Emergency Mngr

&&

IM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
349 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

KSZ037-038-054-142130-
Wabaunsee-Lyon-Morris-
349 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Morris, south central
Wabaunsee and northwestern Lyon Counties through 430 PM CDT...

At 349 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Parkerville to 5 miles east of Burdick.
Movement was east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Council Grove, Americus, White City, Wilsey, Parkerville, Bushong,
Dunlap and Council Grove Lake.

This includes Kansas Turnpike between mile markers 117 and 118.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for
east central Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3852 9635 3852 9682 3882 9673 3878 9618
      3824 9635
TIME...MOT...LOC 2049Z 274DEG 30KT 3875 9668 3853 9675

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
351 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0347 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 ESE Lawrence          38.95N 95.24W
07/14/2023                   Douglas            KS   Emergency Mngr

            *** 1 INJ ***
            Numerous trees and powerlines down. A car
            was blown off US 59 into a creek and an
            injury resulted.

&&

AJ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
412 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0150 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Maple Hill              39.08N 96.02W
07/14/2023                   Wabaunsee          KS   Public

            Significant tree damage as well as power
            outages in town.

&&

IM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
414 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     Rain             Eskridge                38.86N 96.11W
07/14/2023  M4.00 inch       Wabaunsee          KS   Trained Spotter

            4 inches of rain in the previous 2 hours.

&&

IM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
416 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

KSZ054-142200-
Lyon-
416 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Lyon County through
500 PM CDT...

At 415 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 3 miles east of Strong City to 13 miles south
of Cottonwood Falls. Movement was east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Emporia, Americus, Olpe, Hartford and Neosho Rapids.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 35 between mile markers 128 and 143.
 Kansas Turnpike between mile markers 117 and 136.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for
east central Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3817 9636 3855 9635 3851 9595 3817 9596
TIME...MOT...LOC 2115Z 284DEG 34KT 3839 9647 3817 9654

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH