Flash Flood Warning 11, NWS Topeka, KS

242 
WGUS73 KTOP 142105
FFSTOP

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
405 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

KSC045-087-150130-
/O.CON.KTOP.FF.W.0011.000000T0000Z-230715T0130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Douglas KS-Jefferson KS-
405 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM CDT THIS 
EVENING FOR NORTHWESTERN DOUGLAS AND SOUTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES...

At 403 PM CDT, Emergency management reported thunderstorms producing 
heavy rain in Perry with 10 inches of water over roads. Water is 
also over roads in Lawrence. Between 2 and 3.5 inches of rain have 
fallen. The expected rainfall rate is 0.25 to 0.75 inches in 1 hour. 
Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch are possible in the 
warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Emergency management reported.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Lawrence, Oskaloosa, Perry, McLouth, Ozawkie, Lecompton and 
  Williamstown.

This includes the following highways...
	Kansas Turnpike between mile markers 189 and 205.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3922 9551 3928 9544 3928 9518 3889 9519
      3896 9550 3906 9550 3907 9546 3922 9539

FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED
EXPECTED RAINFALL RATE...0.25-0.75 INCHES IN 1 HOUR

$$

Jones

734 
WGUS73 KTOP 142238
FFSTOP

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
538 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

KSC045-087-142248-
/O.CAN.KTOP.FF.W.0011.000000T0000Z-230715T0130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Douglas KS-Jefferson KS-
538 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN DOUGLAS AND SOUTHERN 
JEFFERSON COUNTIES HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A FLOOD ADVISORY...

LAT...LON 3922 9551 3928 9544 3928 9518 3889 9519
      3896 9550 3906 9550 3907 9546 3922 9539

$$

Jones

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
322 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

Key Points:

- Severe storms this afternoon moving out by early evening, with
damaging wind being the primary hazard, hail and heavy rain being
secondary hazards

- Quiet overnight into Saturday, then next chance of showers and
storms Sunday

- Heating up again early to middle of next week

Outflow boundary has been the focal point for thunderstorm
development late this morning into the early afternoon, which
allowed for storms to fill in along the I-70 corridor within the
last couple of hours. This MCS has a history of producing 60-80 mph
wind gusts on its leading edge as it moved from Wabaunsee County
through the Topeka vicinity and into Jefferson County. Very heavy
rain has also fallen with 1-3 inches of rain in some spots. The
environment in and ahead of this line of storms remains very
unstable with 2500-3500 J/kg of MLCAPE, up to 1300 J/kg of DCAPE,
and up to 40 kt of effective bulk shear. Additionally, Pwat has
risen to 1.7-1.9 inches across the area. This will continue to
support damaging winds being the main threat as the line moves east
to southeast with torrential rainfall. Flooding is also a potential
risk with any training storms, particularly from I-70 southward
where storms are still building back in from the west. While this
line has been ahead of CAM guidance to this point, models depict the
storm complex moving pretty quickly, likely exiting the area by
early this evening.

The rest of the night looks quiet as high pressure pushes in from
the northwest, leading to clearing skies. Can't rule out some
shallow fog forming in low-lying areas by sunrise, especially in
locations that receive(d) heavy rainfall today. As high pressure
slides east during the day, mainly sunny skies should allow
temperatures to reach around 90 degrees. As we head into Sunday, the
forecast area finds itself in northwest flow as a mid-level ridge
over the southwestern US expands east and a mid-level low moves
through southern Ontario. A subtle perturbation within the flow may
trigger another round of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon
and evening. Shear looks modest in the guidance at this time, but
can't rule out some marginally severe storms that develop with this
round.

A warming trend is then expected through the first half of next week
as a thermal axis moves overhead with the aforementioned mid-level
ridge. Heat indices look to return to the triple digits Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

Main concern in the period is convection this afternoon. A cluster
currently north of MHK should move southeast and impact TOP/FOE
within the next hour or two. Thunderstorms in central KS should
form a broken line and move across the area this afternoon and
move out of northeast KS by early evening. Strong winds will be
the main concern as these storms move through. Otherwise VFR
conditions prevail with winds from the northeast to northwest this
evening into tomorrow.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Picha
AVIATION...Picha

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
323 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-150830-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
323 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Kansas, east central
Kansas, north central Kansas and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A line of thunderstorms is expected to move into the area from the
northwest by this afternoon and early evening. Storms are expected to
be capable of producing winds of 70 mph or greater at times. A few
storms could also produce large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Potentially hazardous heat and humidity may return to the area by
Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters may be needed this afternoon and evening.

&&

More detailed information can be found at:
www.weather.gov/media/top/DssPacket.pdf

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
320 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0316 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 NW Topeka             39.07N 95.71W
07/14/2023                   Shawnee            KS   Public

            Report from mPING: 1-inch tree limbs broken;
            Shingles blown off.

&&

IM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
321 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0241 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Perry                   39.07N 95.40W
07/14/2023                   Jefferson          KS   Emergency Mngr

            multiple trees snapped in Perry, one as
            large as 36 inches in diameter.

&&

IM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
322 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

KSZ037-038-054-142100-
Wabaunsee-Lyon-Morris-
322 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of eastern Morris,
southern Wabaunsee and northern Lyon Counties through 400 PM CDT...

At 322 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles north of Bushong, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Council Grove, Eskridge, Allen, Admire, Bushong, Dunlap and Council
Grove Lake.

This includes Kansas Turnpike between mile markers 142 and 154.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for
east central Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3849 9635 3852 9635 3852 9649 3873 9662
      3904 9619 3876 9595 3863 9595
TIME...MOT...LOC 2022Z 242DEG 33KT 3873 9628

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Topeka KS
327 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 W Lawrence            38.96N 95.31W
07/14/2023                   Douglas            KS   Public

            Report from mPING: 1-inch tree limbs broken;
            Shingles blown off.

&&

IM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
327 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

KSZ035-037-142100-
Dickinson-Morris-
327 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southeastern
Dickinson and Morris Counties through 400 PM CDT...

At 327 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 5 miles northeast of Woodbine to 4 miles east
of Ramona. Movement was east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Herington, White City, Hope, Dwight, Woodbine, Wilsey, Parkerville,
Latimer and Burdick.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for
central and east central Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3861 9693 3861 9712 3889 9703 3888 9693
      3887 9693 3887 9650 3883 9650 3882 9649
      3852 9661 3852 9693
TIME...MOT...LOC 2027Z 268DEG 34KT 3885 9689 3858 9698

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
328 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

KSZ040-056-142100-
Douglas-Franklin-
328 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Franklin and southeastern Douglas Counties through 400 PM CDT...

At 328 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles south of Baldwin City, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Baldwin City and Wellsville.

This includes Interstate 35 between mile markers 189 and 198.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for
east central Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3869 9507 3863 9507 3860 9520 3876 9529
      3888 9506 3870 9506
TIME...MOT...LOC 2028Z 245DEG 13KT 3872 9517

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Omitt