Tornado Warning 87, NWS Tallahassee, FL

029 
WWUS52 KTAE 160101
SVSTAE

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
801 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

FLC131-160111-
/O.CAN.KTAE.TO.W.0087.000000T0000Z-230616T0115Z/
Walton FL-
801 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN WALTON COUNTY IS CANCELLED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
the Panhandle of Florida.

LAT...LON 3038 8633 3042 8632 3040 8623 3041 8626
      3042 8626 3043 8625 3039 8618 3045 8616
      3043 8613 3038 8617 3041 8614 3038 8614
      3040 8608 3032 8620 3037 8640 3040 8640
TIME...MOT...LOC 0059Z 295DEG 11KT 3039 8625 

$$

72-BUNKER

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
751 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Friday)
Issued at 329 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023

There are 2 separate areas of concern this evening. Over southern
Georgia and the eastern Big Bend, heavy rainfall has caused
widespread flooding, and training cells are expected to continue for
at least the next few hours. Meanwhile, off to our northwest, strong
to severe thunderstorms (and a flash flood threat) will move east-
southeast into the forecast area through the afternoon and evening.
All modes of severe weather remain possible. We should see most
storms taper off after midnight, though some storms will remain
possible generally south of I-10 during the overnight hours. The
severe threat should also decrease overnight, but we couldn't rule
out an isolated strong to severe storm. Lows will be in the 70s.

For Friday, we remain in this active pattern again as another
shortwave dives southwestward toward the forecast area. Timing of
storms is a bit uncertain, but we could have one round move through
during the morning and another later in the afternoon. Yet again,
damaging winds and large hail are possible in the strong to severe
storms. An isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out. Heavy
rainfall is also possible, but more discussion on that is in the
Hydrology section below. Highs, should we get enough sunshine, will
be in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday night through Saturday night)
Issued at 329 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023

Elevated northwesterly mid-level flow will continue into Saturday,
especially across the western half of the area, with 40-50kt at
500mb. With the quasi-stationary frontal boundary remaining
largely in place as well, a continuation of the current stormy
pattern will remain favored. While the exact timing and evolution
of the convection on any particular day is difficult to pin down,
conditions will once again support the potential for severe storms
and excessive rainfall, with the potential for additional flash
flooding as soils continue to become more saturated.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 329 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023

Strong mid-level flow will continue across the area through Sunday
before gradually weakening by early next week. However, the flow
will still remain cyclonic as a trough remains in place across the
eastern CONUS. So, the continuous severe threat should begin to
wane, replace by a more typical wet and active summertime pattern.
However, through Sunday, with that elevated flow, periodic clusters
of severe storms will continue to be a concern, along with areas
of flooding due to the increasingly saturated soils.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 751 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023

Thunderstorms currently north of Destin will affect ECP over the
next 2 hours. Thereafter, storms will favor Panhandle beaches and
just offshore, necessitating the inclusion of VCTS at ECP for the
rest of tonight. For other terminals, a very moist and rain-cooled
air mass will lend itself to development of IFR ceilings
overnight, as a return of warm moist air interacts with the rain-
cooled air.

Those clouds will start to lift and scatter after sunrise.
Sometime between mid-morning and mid-afternoon, a mesoscale
convective system (MCS) looks like it will want to race east or
east-southeast across the terminals. Timing is the most uncertain
aspect, though it is also uncertain if it will focus on our AL/GA
terminals, or further south over our FL terminals. Whenever and
wherever it goes, it will arrive with very strong wind gusts, then
exit with a couple hours of trailing stratiform rain.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 329 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023

Unsettled conditions will continue over the waters for the next
several days as showers and thunderstorms continue to develop
inland and move offshore. Thunderstorms will be capable of strong
gusty winds, hail, waterspouts and frequent lightning. Otherwise,
generally southwest winds are expected with periods of exercise
caution conditions, especially within the nearshore waters.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 329 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023

Rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue across the area
for the next few days. Some of the storms may be strong to severe
each day. Fire weather concerns are minimal for the next few days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 329 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023

Repeated rounds of thunderstorms have produced significant
rainfall totals across the forecast over the past several days.
Multi-day rainfall totals in parts of Southwest Georgia and
Southeast Alabama are in excess of 5 to 7 inches. Several more
inches of rain are possible over the next few days. As soils are
becoming saturated, flash flooding is becoming more of an issue,
especially across SW Georgia and portions of the Big Bend.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report
significant weather conditions and/or damage by calling the
office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   73  89  71  88 /  80  70  60  70
Panama City   76  87  73  87 /  90  70  70  80
Dothan        70  87  69  87 /  70  50  60  50
Albany        70  88  68  88 /  70  30  40  40
Valdosta      71  88  69  88 /  90  40  50  60
Cross City    74  88  70  88 /  70  80  70  80
Apalachicola  78  86  74  85 /  70  70  70  80

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through Friday evening for FLZ007-009-011-016>019.

     High Rip Current Risk through Friday morning for FLZ108-112-114-
     115.

GA...Flood Watch through Friday evening for GAZ120>131-142>148-
     155>161.

AL...Flood Watch through Friday evening for ALZ065>069.

GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Young
SHORT TERM...Camp
LONG TERM....Camp
AVIATION...Haner
MARINE...Camp
FIRE WEATHER...Young
HYDROLOGY...Camp

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
647 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0623 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Apalachicola Airport    29.73N 85.03W
06/15/2023  M44 MPH          Franklin           FL   ASOS

            ASOS station KAAF Apalachicola.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
714 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0711 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 SSW Eastpoint         29.72N 84.89W
06/15/2023  M44 MPH          GMZ755             FL   Mesonet

            St George Island Bridge WeatherSTEM gusted
            to 44 mph.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
717 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     Saint George Island     29.67N 84.86W
06/15/2023  M41 MPH          Franklin           FL   Mesonet

            St George Island WeatherFlow station gusted
            to 41 mph.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
739 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023

FLZ034-134-160030-
Coastal Dixie FL-Inland Dixie FL-
739 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Dixie County through
830 PM EDT...

At 739 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northwest of Fowlers Bluff, or 12 miles south of Cross City,
moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Cross City, Horseshoe Point, Suwannee, Horseshoe Beach, Shamrock,
Cross City Airport, Shired Island, Old Town, Eugene, Fletcher, Yellow
Jacket, Guaranto Springs and Fanning Springs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for
Big Bend of Florida.

&&

LAT...LON 2929 8322 2955 8348 2960 8349 2964 8356
      2967 8343 2966 8337 2969 8335 2979 8294
      2970 8294 2963 8297 2958 8295 2959 8294
      2954 8298 2947 8298 2937 8307 2935 8306
      2930 8316 2929 8317
TIME...MOT...LOC 2339Z 254DEG 19KT 2946 8314

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

72-BUNKER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
651 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

FLZ008-108-160045-
Central Walton FL-South Walton FL-
651 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Walton
County through 745 PM CDT...

At 651 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Niceville, moving southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Santa Rosa Beach, Eglin Air Force Base, Freeport, Inlet Beach,
Portland, Villa Tasso, Port Washington, Blue Mountain Beach, Seaside,
Miramar Beach, Gulf Pines, Bunker, Grayton Beach, Seagrove Beach,
Sandestin and Four Mile Village.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
the Panhandle of Florida.

&&

LAT...LON 3038 8633 3042 8631 3040 8623 3043 8626
      3043 8625 3038 8616 3038 8612 3039 8611
      3044 8616 3047 8613 3046 8619 3050 8620
      3046 8639 3065 8639 3051 8600 3018 8599
      3031 8639 3040 8639
TIME...MOT...LOC 2351Z 297DEG 24KT 3050 8639

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

72-BUNKER

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
755 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     Waterspout       6 S Apalachicola        29.64N 84.97W
06/15/2023                   GMZ755             FL   Public

            Video of waterspout on social media.

&&

PC