Severe Thunderstorm Warning 75, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
159 PM EDT Sun Mar 12 2023

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 107 PM EDT Sun Mar 12 2023

A Tornado Watch is now in effect for much of the region
outside of SE Alabama through this evening.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 945 AM EDT Sun Mar 12 2023

Lowered PoPs near and south of I-10 today based on the latest
guidance. With cloud cover over much of the northwest, also
lowered temps a few degrees, especially in Southeast Alabama.
Dew points were also adjusted this morning and early aftn in
eastern areas where drier air is slower to erode.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 406 AM EDT Sun Mar 12 2023

 A complex weather event appears likely today with the main
threats being severe wind, a few tornadoes, and hail across nearly
the entire CWA. At the surface, a low will progress NE across the MS
Valley to the Ohio Valley with a secondary low likely forming off
the coast of the Carolinas. The attendant cold front will be our
main source of forcing with this system, however 500mb flow with
multiple shortwave perturbations may initiate some smaller storms
ahead of the front with some possibly severe. Model consistency
appears good with respect to kinematics with ESRH ahead of the front
around 250-300m2/s2 as a result of ample 0-3km shear and decent deep
layer shear enhancing the threat for a few tornadoes. Instability
ranging from 1500j/kg to perhaps 2000j/kg with mid level lapse rates
around 6.5C/km may result in severe wind gusts with small hail
possible as well.

However, timing and overall evolution of the storm still appear to
be the main question with todays event. The HRRR has begun to show
the initial line of storms that is currently progressing SE through
central MS throwing out a pretty substantial outflow boundary which
substantially mixes out the moisture in place. This appears to
create an environment where the storms weaken as they enter the
CWA and greatly limit the threat to our coastal FL counties where
favorable instability may still be in place. Other CAM's are not
necessarily as aggressive as the HRRR with this evolution but do
appear to be picking up on some outflow propagating ahead of the
storm, making this a "failure mode" that will need to be monitored
closely.

Southerly return flow throughout the day will bring temperatures
into the upper 70s to low 80s. The front will slowly progress to the
south throughout the evening and may result in a temperature
gradient across the CWA ranging from mid 50s in our GA and AL
counties to mid 60s along the FL Panhandle coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM & LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 406 AM EDT Sun Mar 12 2023

Cooler and drier conditions are expected to start out the short
term in the wake of the aforementioned cold front. Temperatures on
Monday will be a bit tricky as daytime heating will be competing
with cold air advection. High temperatures for now are forecast in
the mid 60s to mid 70s. Cool and dry conditions persist through
Tuesday and Wednesday with onshore winds not returning until
Thursday. Below normal temperatures are finally back in the
forecast with highs on Tuesday in the 60s and lows Tuesday night
in the mid 30s to low 40s.

A gradual warming and moistening trend is expected through the
week. Another cold front is forecast to push through the area
sometime Friday night into Saturday, which will knock temperatures
back down a few degrees for the rest of the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM...

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 107 PM EDT Sun Mar 12 2023

Main concern will be showers and thunderstorms moving across the
terminals through the overnight hours from east to west. While most
sites are VFR, this activity will lead to restrictions to at least
MVFR. A more solid MVFR overcast will develop overnight and lower
to IFR/LIFR late tonight into Monday morning, with a return to VFR
Monday afternoon. Southwest winds gusting around 25 mph will shift
to the West and eventually Northwest by late tonight w/ the passage
of a cold front. Higher wind gusts are possible TSRA into tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 406 AM EDT Sun Mar 12 2023

Winds and seas will increase today ahead of the next cold front,
with the potential for a brief period of 20 knot winds Sunday
Night as the cold front crosses the waters. Winds and seas remain
elevated with the next potential of 20 knot winds Monday Night
into Tuesday. More tranquil boating conditions are expected my
midweek.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 406 AM EDT Sun Mar 12 2023

A frontal system is forecast to slowly progress into the area
from the northwest throughout the day bringing a much needed rain to
the area and gusty winds ahead of the system around 20-30kts. This
will enhance transport winds within a well mixed boundary layer
which will lead to high dispersions within our FL counties.
Following the passage of this system, we will once again become
quite dry with RH values on Monday around the low to mid 40s and

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 406 AM EDT Sun Mar 12 2023

There are two chances for meaningful rainfall over the next week.
The first and most concerning is with the cold front today into
Monday. As showers and storms move southward across the area later
today, they could train especially north of I-10. Rainfall should
average 1 to 1.5 inches over this area, with localized amounts of
3-4 inches. This would lead to mainly nuisance flooding in urban
or poor drainage areas. The next chance of rainfall will be
Friday into Saturday, when another inch or so is possible.
Riverine flooding is not expected with either system.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report
significant weather conditions and/or damage (while following all
local, state, and CDC guidelines) by calling the office or tweeting
us @NWSTallahassee.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   62  72  44  64 /  70  30   0   0
Panama City   59  71  46  64 /  70  20   0   0
Dothan        52  67  39  62 /  90  10   0   0
Albany        54  69  38  62 /  80  10   0   0
Valdosta      60  71  41  62 /  80  40   0   0
Cross City    66  77  45  67 /  60  70   0   0
Apalachicola  64  72  48  64 /  70  30   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM EDT /midnight CDT/ Monday for
     FLZ108-112-114.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Worster
SHORT TERM...Merrifield
LONG TERM....Merrifield
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...Merrifield
FIRE WEATHER...Worster
HYDROLOGY...Merrifield

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