Severe Thunderstorm Warning 501, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
306 PM EDT Fri Aug 4 2023

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 302 PM EDT Fri Aug 4 2023

Convection from this afternoon is likely to be ongoing into the
evening hrs thanks to continued NW flow funneling in upstream MCS
and associated outflow boundaries. The environment should remain
supportive for strong to severe thunderstorms capable of isolated
damaging gusts and heavy rainfall given the seasonable
instability/moisture. Deep-layer shear in excess of 20 kts may also
enable some storm organization into linear clusters to reinforce the
damaging wind threat.

Although a convective lull is possible overnight, some hi-res
guidance suggests another wave of storms push in from the north
(mainly after midnight). This development appears to stem from a
remnant outflow boundary which really aims to spark convection even
further in the late morning through the afternoon hrs, especially
over our FL counties where it could get messy. Although we are not
currently highlighted by a risk for severe weather, an upgrade to a
Marginal (level 1 of 5) cannot be ruled out for damaging wind gusts.
Pockets of heavy rain will be on the table, too.

Looking at temperatures, most folks should be waking up to lows in
the mid 70s away from the immediate coast. Expect another hot/humid
day after the sun comes up. Forecast high temperatures are in the
low 90s with peak heat indices in the 102 to near 108-degree range.
The FL Panhandle may be in contention for a Heat Advisory, but the
high likelihood of convective coverage makes us hesitant to issue
one at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Sunday night)
Issued at 302 PM EDT Fri Aug 4 2023

No major changes to the forecast as we remain caught between a ridge
and an upper level trough. This leaves NW flow over the region which
could allow for shortwave troughs to slide  through. Timing is still
uncertain but there's a chance for a round of severe weather or two.
The high temperature and heat index forecast will be dependent on
the upper level ridging trying to sneak in from the west and any
shortwave passage. Currently high temperatures are forecast to be in
the mid 90s. If we're able to get the ridging and delay convection
we could see heat index values peak in the between 103 to 110,
locally higher. This puts us within heat advisory criteria, but
confidence is low.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 302 PM EDT Fri Aug 4 2023

Ensembles show slight troughing to near zonal flow aloft in the
extended. We could see some slight upper level ridging on Monday
which could give us a break in precip chances but increase our
temperatures. Zonal flow then sets up and becomes stagnant. A
frontal system is expected to sag into the region and potentially
stall. Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms will  be
possible, while high temperatures generally hold in the 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 129 PM EDT Fri Aug 4 2023

Active set of TAFs for this cycle. A relative convective lull at
the time of issuance, but storm development is likely later this
afternoon w/activity lingering into the evening w/some addt'l
convection overnight. Guidance shows lowering cigs during the
early morning hrs, so have acct'd for the potential at DHN/ABY/VLD
for 10-14Z. For tmrw, a second wave of storms move generally from
N to S, followed by seabreeze interactions. Confidence is low on
timing, so future amendments may be necessary.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 302 PM EDT Fri Aug 4 2023

High pressure anchored over the Northeast Gulf today into this
weekend. A front approaches from the northwest early next week. West
to southwest winds are expected through the period, ranging from 5
to around 10 knots, occasionally 15 knots. Seas will remain low from
1 to around 2 feet. There is the potential for a line of strong
thunderstorms to move through the waters tonight and possibly again
tomorrow, with locally higher winds and seas. Otherwise, expect
tranquil boating conditions through the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 302 PM EDT Fri Aug 4 2023

Fire weather concerns are expected to remain minimal with a moist
airmass in place and a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 302 PM EDT Fri Aug 4 2023

Daily afternoon thunderstorms through the next week are forecast to
produce around 1.5 to 2 inches of rain along the Florida Panhandle
with lower values expected to the east and north. With a few rounds
of MCS-driven convection possible over the next few days, isolated
higher amounts are possible. There are currently no river flooding
concerns, however, given the moist atmosphere isolated instances of
flash flooding are possible in poor drainage areas.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   76  93  76  94 /  50  80  30  60
Panama City   80  92  78  92 /  50  70  40  60
Dothan        75  93  75  94 /  30  60  20  60
Albany        74  93  75  94 /  40  60  20  50
Valdosta      74  91  74  94 /  50  70  20  50
Cross City    77  92  76  92 /  50  80  50  70
Apalachicola  80  90  78  90 /  40  70  40  60

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Camp
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...IG3
MARINE...Oliver
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Oliver

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