Severe Thunderstorm Warning 5, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
615 PM EST Tue Jan 3 2023

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 338 PM EST Tue Jan 3 2023

The picture from space this afternoon shows much of the service area
with clear skies, the exception are the southeast Florida Big
Bend and some of our marine zones. Expect The conditions to
continue through the remainder of the afternoon, while
temperatures hover in the low to mid 70s. Tonight, widespread
dense fog returns to the tri- state area. Current thinking is it
will start along the coastal Florida counties and then spread
inland. A Dense Fog Advisory has been hoisted starting around 10pm
ET / 9pm CT and running through mid Monday morning. If you plan
on traveling in the fog remember to allow extra time to reach your
destination, slow down when driving in fog, use your low beam
lights, and leave space between cars. By mid to late Monday
morning, visibilities will be improving with skies partially
clearing. Highs for tomorrow will be in the mid 70s, while lows
tonight drop into the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 338 PM EST Tue Jan 3 2023

Severe weather should be coming to an end late Wednesday
afternoon and into the evening. Behind it, northwesterly winds
usher in cooler and drier air. Overnight lows Wednesday night are
forecast to be in the 50s. Thursday will start to feel more like
winter, where highs make it into the upper 60s and low 70s and
overnight lows fall to the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 338 PM EST Tue Jan 3 2023

Cool and dry weather continues through the long term forecast as
high pressure nestles into the region. High temperatures on Friday
and Saturday will be near the normal values for this time of year,
which is the low to mid 60s. The coldest night looks to be
Friday night into Saturday, where our GA and AL counties dip into
the mid to upper 30s while our FL counties drop to near 40,
slightly warmer along the coast. Saturday night, overnight lows
shouldn't bottom out with most areas falling into the 40s. Sunday
we start to see increasing temperatures again. Sunday we start to
see a slight increase in temperatures with highs closer to the mid
60s to low 70s. By Monday, there's some deviation in the models
and ensembles. Opted to keep a slight chance for rain and light
PoP in the period to accommodate for this.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 PM EST Tue Jan 3 2023

Showers and thunderstorms have begun to move into SE Alabama and
south-central Georgia this evening, moving in a northeasterly
direction. We got IFR and MVFR ceilings at our western terminals
currently. Thunderstorm coverage will expand across the region,
affecting all terminals by the morning hours and will be
widespread thunderstorms with gusty winds. A few tornadoes and
hail will be possible with these storms, this evening and again
tomorrow. Outside of thunderstorms, we can expect some low-level
wind shear to be possible at all terminals during the morning
hours into the afternoon.

Overnight tonight, marine fog will move onshore, with the lowest
vsbys affecting the TLH and VLD terminals beginning around 05z.
All terminals can expect to have IFR/LIFR ceilings until after the
front passes later during Wednesday evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 338 PM EST Tue Jan 3 2023

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect western marine zones from the
mouth of the Apalachicola River towards Destin 20 to 60 nautical
miles offshore through tonight. Cautionary conditions are expected
through the remainder of the marine zones through Wednesday.
Chances for thunderstorms increase today and then continue through
late Wednesday. Northwest breezes behind the cold front bring
conditions near advisory levels again on Thursday and Friday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 338 PM EST Tue Jan 3 2023

Widespread dense fog is expected to develop tonight and linger
tomorrow morning. After that, a day of area wide low dispersions is
forecast. Other than that, there are no fire weather concerns with
the next change for rain arriving around midweek.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 338 PM EST Tue Jan 3 2023

Rain chances increase today through Wednesday as a cold front
approaches and eventually moves through the area. Higher than normal
moisture for this time of year along with the potential for training
showers and storms will lead to a risk for flash flooding. The
greatest potential for flooding is expected across portions of SE
Alabama and SW Georgia, where a flood watch is in place, however
isolated heavy rain will still be possible area-wide through
Wednesday. Widespread 2 to 4 inches of rain will be possible in the
Flood Watch area with isolated higher amounts possible. Widespread 1
to 2 inches are expected elsewhere. Area rivers remain in good
shape.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   65  75  55  71 /  40 100  20   0
Panama City   65  74  54  68 /  70 100  10   0
Dothan        66  75  49  66 /  80  80   0   0
Albany        65  75  51  68 /  50 100  10   0
Valdosta      65  75  57  72 /  10  90  20   0
Cross City    64  75  58  73 /  10  80  50  10
Apalachicola  65  72  56  68 /  50 100  20   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Dense Fog Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM EST Wednesday for FLZ015-
     017>019-027>029-034-115-118-127-128-134.

     High Rip Current Risk until 11 PM EST /10 PM CST/ this evening
     for FLZ108-112-114-115.

GA...Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for GAZ120>122.

AL...Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for ALZ065>067.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Wednesday for
     GMZ730-752-755-765-775.

     Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Wednesday for GMZ770-772.

&&

NEAR TERM...Bunker
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...Montgomery
MARINE...KR
FIRE WEATHER...Bunker
HYDROLOGY...Merrifield