Severe Thunderstorm Warning 15, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
629 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2023

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 204 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2023

Cold front is analyzed through central Mississippi southward into
southeast Louisiana. A line of thunderstorms is ahead of the cold
front underneath a 40 knot LLJ and supported by a mid level trough
into the southern Plains. MUCAPE through the coastal states is
around 2000 J/kg and bulk shear is on the order of 40-50 knots. That
line will progress through southern Alabama overnight and into our
CWA in the predawn hours. Isolated showers and storms will develop
ahead of the line as well but the main event will be associated with
the line and cold front.

The environment ahead of the line will remain moderately unstable,
not losing much of the instability or the shear today. Therefore,
all modes of severe weather is possible but will favor more of a
damaging wind and isolated tornado threat. Low level lapse rates
appear to be a negative factor for large hail but can't rule it out
completely. The Storm Prediction Center has outlooked our entire CWA
in a slight risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe weather today.

Aside from the impending severe risk, dense fog is also a concern
this morning, especially in the Florida Big Bend counties where a
dense fog advisory is in effect through 8AM EST. Expect areas of
dense fog and visibilities of a quarter mile or less at times.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Saturday Night)
Issued at 204 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2023

A dry period of weather is in store from Thursday through the first
half of the weekend. On Thursday, the mid-level trough pulls
northeast, with increasing subsidence. Moisture will be gradually
scoured out of the area with decreasing cloudiness. It will be mild
with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s with Northwest winds
between 15 and 20 mph in gusts at times. A slightly cooler air mass
advects in on Friday and Saturday with highs mostly in the 60s. Both
Fri and Sat mornings will also be noticeably, with lows closer to
average.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 204 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2023

Some uncertainty with respect to precip chances during this period,
particularly as we approach midweek. A weak cold frontal passage
occurs Sunday into Monday, with shower chances highest in western
areas. After the frontal passage, ensembles hint at an overrunning
regime developing in response to a weak gulf low, given the fast
moving nature of a southern stream shortwave. The main challenges
will be timing of precip and extent, the latter of which favors
coastal areas. Temperatures remain near seasonable levels through
the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2023

Line of SHRA and TSRA has entered southeast AL west of DHN and the
FL panhandle. Frequent lightning and strong winds are accompanying
the line as it is moving eastward. Timing into DHN is within the
next hour or so and around 2 hours into ECP. Moving east, timing
is around 14-15Z into ABY and TLH and 16Z at VLD. Speed and
strength of the line is more uncertain with eastward extent and
hold TSRA a little longer to build in the uncertainty further
east. Behind the line, clouds should begin to scatter out with the
exception of TLH and VLD as low level moisture will hold in
through the overnight hours with IFR/LIFR conditions could occur.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 204 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2023

Sea fog is the primary concern tonight across the nearshore waters
where a Marine Dense Fog Advisory is in effect until this afternoon.
Sea fog could make a return tonight in Apalachee Bay. Increasing
southerly winds ahead of a cold front prompts hazardous boating
conditions today. In particular, a squall line of thunder storms is
expected to move through the waters today, with wind gusts in excess
of 34 knots and water spouts possible. Otherwise, a Small Craft
Advisory is in effect for western marine zones from the mouth of the
Apalachicola River towards Destin 20 to 60 nautical miles offshore
into early this afternoon with cautionary conditions elsewhere
through today. Northwest breezes behind the cold front bring
conditions near advisory levels Thursday and Friday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 204 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2023

Wetting rains are expected throughout the Tri-State region today,
along with a threat for severe thunderstorms. This activity is
associated with a cold front which will eventually push through the
area by Thursday morning. Behind the cold front, high pressure will
build in through the weekend. The airmass associated with the high
pressure is not overly dry therefore afternoon relative humidity
values will remain above critical thresholds. Dispersions Thursday
may be marginally high in portions of the area in the afternoon
hours.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 204 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2023

Rain chances increase through today as a cold front approaches and
eventually moves through the area. Higher than normal moisture for
this time of year along with the potential for training showers and
storms will lead to a risk for flash flooding. Much of the region is
under a marginal risk for excessive rainfall, with localized flash
flooding possible where isolated higher amounts occur over a short
period of time. Outside of that, average rainfall will range from
around 1 to 2 inches. Looking ahead, next rainfall chances will be
early to midweek as a weak gulf low develops. At this time, the
heaviest rainfall is expected to remain offshore.

While area rivers are in good shape at this time, there are concerns
for rainfall that falls outside of our region to impact the
Kinchafoonee as soon as Wednesday, and the Chattahoochee and Flint
River Basins in a couple days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   75  55  71  40 / 100  20   0   0
Panama City   74  54  68  42 /  90  10   0   0
Dothan        75  49  66  39 /  90  10   0   0
Albany        75  51  68  38 / 100  10   0   0
Valdosta      75  57  72  39 /  90  40   0   0
Cross City    75  58  73  42 /  80  60  10   0
Apalachicola  72  56  68  45 / 100  20   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for FLZ108-112-
     114-115.

GA...Flood Watch through this evening for GAZ120>122.

AL...Flood Watch through this afternoon for ALZ065>067.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning for
     GMZ730-752-755-765-775.

     Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ770-772.

&&

NEAR TERM...Scholl
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...Scholl
HYDROLOGY...LF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1110 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2023

GAZ129-131-146>148-041715-
Berrien GA-Tift GA-Colquitt GA-Irwin GA-Cook GA-
1110 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Cook, Irwin, Berrien,
eastern Colquitt and central Tift Counties through 1215 PM EST...

At 1110 AM EST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 9 miles north of Tifton to near Unionville to 7
miles west of Adel. Movement was northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Tifton, Nashville, Adel, Ocilla, Sparks, Enigma, Lenox, Alapaha,
Mystic, Unionville, Phillipsburg, Ellenton, Reed Bingham State Park,
Eldorado, Gladys, Massee, Osierfield, Glory, Flat Ford and Harding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 200 PM EST for south central
Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3164 8301 3161 8306 3155 8306 3149 8310
      3146 8315 3144 8314 3140 8314 3133 8306
      3130 8306 3128 8304 3123 8305 3120 8305
      3107 8366 3135 8355 3155 8356 3166 8324
      3165 8318 3168 8317 3167 8300
TIME...MOT...LOC 1610Z 247DEG 49KT 3159 8350 3138 8347 3111 8355

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

25-CAMP

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