Severe Thunderstorm Warning 482, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
320 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023

...ANOTHER ROUND OF HAZARDOUS HEAT EXPECTED TOMORROW...

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023

SPC Marginal Risk through this evening for storms moving in from the
northwest and developing along the seabreeze fronts. Main concerns
are isolated damaging winds through early tonight. Heat headlines
remain in effect through 7 PM ET. On Monday, highs cool slightly to
the mid and upper 90s. This will knock down heat indices a bit, but
still solidly within heat advisory criteria (108-112F), mainly in
the FL Counties. A heat advisory for Monday will likely be issued
this evening or later tonight. Lower PWAT values work in from the
north on Monday aftn, ranging from 1.3" in SE AL to 1.8" near I-10.
As such, highest PoPs (AOA 50%) are from roughly Valdosta to Panama
City and points southeast. High DCAPE and mid-level winds around 20
knots will support the potential for gusty storms with iso damaging
wind gusts possible Monday afternoon and evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023

Hot weather continues as the work week progresses, but relatively
drier air filtering in from the north aims to lower humidity enough
for somewhat less hazardous heat. Rain chances are minimal outside
of the seabreeze zone (afternoon) and marine areas (nighttime/early
morning) during the short-term period thanks to the dry air partly
reinforced by large-scale subsidence associated with a strong ridge
nosing in from the west. Limited convection under this pattern means
high temperatures are poised to soar into the mid 90s (isolated
upper 90s). A larger spread in heat indices is expected from north
to south (100-110 degree range) thanks to a moisture gradient likely
to be in place. Our FL counties stand the best chance to meet
advisory criteria thanks to a more moist airmass influenced by the
Gulf/seabreeze. Overnight lows are mostly in the mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023

The Tri-State area is slated be under a persistent NW flow pattern
for the remainder of the work week thanks to the SW to NE ridge-
trough orientation staying in place across the CONUS. We will have
to monitor for upstream MCS activity each day in addition to normal
seabreeze convection. Otherwise, hot weather continues with highs in
the 90s and triple digit heat indices. Hazardous heat appears likely
once again by the weekend as the trough lifts out and ridge builds
in from the west, so advisory level conditions come back into play.
Excessive heat cannot be ruled out either. Mid 70s for lows
should remain common through the long-term period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023

The main concern will be VCTS late this afternoon into early tonight
at the terminals, which will likely require some amendments for TSRA
with gusty winds and brief restrictions to IFR possible. Otherwise,
VFR conditions with westerly winds around 5 to 10 kts. Only exception
may be briefly low cigs/vsbys at VLD near sunrise, but low confidence
precludes mention in the TAF attm.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023

Favorable boating conditions prevail away from thunderstorms for
which are in the forecast each day. Best rain chances are in the
overnight into morning hours. Additional maritime convection is
possible from inland activity pushing offshore during the afternoon
into evening hours. Generally light west winds persist with onshore
directional changes in the afternoon near the coast via the late
morning/midday seabreeze. Winds become more variable by midweek.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023

Hot and humid conditions will continue through the upcoming week.
High mixing heights are expected to lead to high dispersions across
portions of Southeast AL and Southwest GA on Monday. High dispersions
may persist on Tuesday and Wednesday across portions of the area.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Jul 30 2023

There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall for
the rest of today and tonight mainly along/north of the I-10
corridor thanks to scattered convection this afternoon from the NW
and the seabreeze flourishing within a moist airmass. The risk
spills over tomorrow into the Suwannee Valley. Isolated instances of
flooding may occur during that time frame.

Overall, significant rainfall amounts are not forecast over the next
7 days. Most locations are looking at about one to approaching two
inches. Of course, isolated higher amounts are possible from strong,
and/or slow-moving thunderstorms. Area rivers also remain in good
shape. There are currently no flooding concerns for much of the
upcoming week.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   76  95  75  98 /  30  60  10  30
Panama City   79  94  79  95 /  30  50  10  20
Dothan        73  95  74  96 /  30  20   0  10
Albany        73  95  74  96 /  40  20   0  10
Valdosta      73  94  74  97 /  50  50  10  30
Cross City    76  93  77  95 /  30  80  30  50
Apalachicola  79  91  79  93 /  30  60  20  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ028-029-034-128-
     134.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ this evening
     for FLZ007>019-026-027-108-112-114-115-118-127.

GA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for GAZ120>131-142>148-
     155>161.

AL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for ALZ065>069.

GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...LF
SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM....IG3
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...IG3

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